I think after looking at that EPS run, they will keep all of the FL penninsula in the cone and taper it off slightly into our back yards. The cone is just supposed to show where the center of circulation could track, not all the effects.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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I think after looking at that EPS run, they will keep all of the FL penninsula in the cone and taper it off slightly into our back yards. The cone is just supposed to show where the center of circulation could track, not all the effects.
DLI4SCwx
Member
Looks like she is trying to get her act back together. Convection starting to get going again South and East sides.
Clem282340
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Just wondering what kind of effect is hurricane Irma going to have in the upstate of sc
accu35
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Yeah, i think there underestimating the wind speed to drop so quick. I think Irma could be a hurricane still for central Ga.
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I've heard in the past that Florida's low elevation doesn't affect the Hurricanes as much as it would say Cuba. With water on both sides of Florida, how likely is it for it to really weaken as quickly as being projected?
BHS1975
Member
NAM shifted west
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GFS is West! Wrecks FL, almost up the spine! Not good for them! 
Bad for GA too! Going up the center of GA, very Euro like!
gawxnative
Member
an anyone post gfs?
Over ATL @ 96! Very Euro-like track now!
WarEagle22
Member
6z GFS is definitely west...I fear this is going to be completely devastating after looking at photos of the damage so far from Irma. I feel this thing could shift west, even a little further. Also, another system looks to be forming behind Jose off of Africa. Man, those islands that have already been hit by Irma, now about to be hit by Jose.
That is the strongest landfall shown by the Euro so far I think.
Snowman63
Member
6z GFS...
Larry, do you think Irma will still be a cane once it potentially visits GA?
There was an 893 mb shown on the 6z GFS today, just off the coast or over the keys! JB says he thinks lowest pressures of the storm still to come!
One of the few I mean very few times I agree with him.
Based on King of 1950 as a likely weaker analog, I'd say that would probably be the case in S GA...probably cat 1 though outside chance it is still cat 2 far S GA. It almost definitely would go down to a TS well before ATL and maybe even below MCN a good ways. I think you'd probably be looking at a rare for MCN formidable TS.
gawxnative
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Only concern ref Georgia, would be for Irma to "rabbit" once it is firmly over land.. Historicly this is a factor as it occured with Eloise and Opal (GOM's) but also with Hugo, and in these cases due to forward speed the systems did not "spin down" quickly in regards to distance traveled inland. IMO "spin down" is more of a time inland as much if not more than distance.
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