• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

Status
Not open for further replies.
GaWx said:
The maps for the 18Z GEFS show just over half of the members in the E GOM, which by my count is higher than at least the other 3 runs of today. Is this a sign of things to come? With the projected track to near the northern coast of central Cuba moving WNW, it would be a rather common track to then go into the Gulf in early to mid Sep.
Click to expand...
I would agree with you for the most part but the 12z while it had more members up Fl spine also had some further west and very few east, this run had more just off the w. coast of Fl but none west of the panhandle and as Carysnow pointed out there was a little split with more off the east coast.... look at the images below.
AL11_2017090412_GEFS_large.png


AL11_2017090418_GEFS_large.png
 
18z HMON is over the FL Keys at hr 126 moving NW, it hasn't made the north turn yet so SE FL (Miami area) is in the NW quadrant of the storm during this timeframe.

hmon_mslp_wind_11L_43.png
 
West trend in effect now. Looks like most showing it hitting Florida and turning north, but still a few have it turning north before hitting Florida and hitting SC or NC. Going to be a long week
 
This may sound funny, but best case is this shoots the strait and landfall somewhere around east FL panhandle. Not only do storms historically weaken upon landfall, the surge threat is way less.
 
Arcc said:
This may sound funny, but best case is this shoots the strait and landfall somewhere around east FL panhandle. Not only do storms historically weaken upon landfall, the surge threat is way less.
Click to expand...
If you mean the Big Bend - the water is 2' deep ... but you basically have 40 miles of inland Seminole Swamp ...
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top