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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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ForsythSnow said:
Yep, GEFS looks nasty.
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_29.png
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The mean tracks right over us
 
Webber would have to give us more technical answers. Me, you'll mostly hear my answers simple and understanding.

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Sorry for beating the same drum (Rolling Thunder for you music folks) ... but, until we get 36 to 48 closer, it's still pin the tail on the donkey (though the donkey's behind is getting a little more in focus, even with the blindfold covering most of the vision)
 
The maps for the 18Z GEFS show just over half of the members in the E GOM, which by my count is higher than at least the other 3 runs of today. Is this a sign of things to come? With the projected track to near the northern coast of central Cuba moving WNW, it would be a rather common track to then go into the Gulf in early to mid Sep.
 
GaWx said:
The maps for the 18Z GEFS show just over half of the members in the E GOM, which by my count is higher than at least the other 3 runs of today. Is this a sign of things to come? With the projected track to near the northern coast of central Cuba moving WNW, it would be a rather common track to then go into the Gulf in early to mid Sep.
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N Tampa/Cedar Key has been my thought and finally I'm willing to say so ...

but that is just a thought, serious one I've been holding on to for days, though ...

RETRACT - just tossing this out there to say how silly it is to forecast a 'Cane's landfall this far out ...

I'll be quiet now ...
 
DustinWX said:
What kind of wind would that produce on the surface verbatim?
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I have no idea, but I would say that if it hit where a majority of the members want to this run, it would be around 40 to 50 sustained up here. Basing my idea of what it could be up here by Opal's impacts. For Florida, probably much worse. The panhandle would have a cat 4 :(
 
It does seem while in general it's a trend west, the members split a little more between west and east. A west trend in general but also a trend to have more members off the coast heading due north. There's about 4 or 5 very cluster members off the eastern coast of Florida
12z GEFS
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_25.png

18z GEFS
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_24.png
 
pcbjr said:
Sorry for beating the same drum (Rolling Thunder for you music folks) ... but, until we get 36 to 48 closer, it's still pin the tail on the donkey (though the donkey's behind is getting a little more in focus, even with the blindfold covering most of the vision)
Click to expand...
Pretty large model consensus today, IMO ! They could all be different tomorrow, but being that this beast will be off to the SE of FL in 5 days or so, I don't think there will be huge run to run changes in the coming days, but I've been wrong before!
 
pcbjr said:
Sorry for beating the same drum (Rolling Thunder for you music folks) ... but, until we get 36 to 48 closer, it's still pin the tail on the donkey (though the donkey's behind is getting a little more in focus, even with the blindfold covering most of the vision)
Click to expand...

You're right, 36-48 could change a lot of things, but ya gotta admit, it ain't looking good for the home team!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Pretty large model consensus today, IMO ! They could all be different tomorrow, but being that this beast will be off to the SE of FL in 5 days or so, I don't think there will be huge run to run changes in the coming days, but I've been wrong before!
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Hey we thought that back in January too, and then it shifted 100 miles NW in 12 hours :confused:
 
18z GFS ENS spaghetti plot. Most members are going through extreme eastern GOM.
8fcdf76a9045481fcf2729eea3c79b99.jpg


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