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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Jackstraw said:
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Starting to wonder if that high that is steering Katia south is having a role in the destination of Irma being further west. Looks like after the Keys, it's anywhere.
 
looks like a track into the SW coast of FL after cutting through the Keys is becoming the bullseye to me

The UKMET stays consistent going in between Naples and Everglades City, the Euro has been there, the HWRF Is going there now

I reserve the right to change my opinion if the Euro changes in an hour :p
 
Tampa is real close to the edge of being in bad shape though and can't take even a slight west shift now, Miami would miss the truly extreme winds if it came in closer to Naples and the worst winds at landfall would mostly be over the low populated Everglades

Orlando would get one heck of a hit though inland
 
Ridge is splitting up around 200mb. The Persistent TUTT thats been in NE Atlantic is shifting WSW. The main ridge is backfilling behind it. The ridge over Katia is getting a little stronger. Its not going to take much of an error in the forecast position of the SW's to spit this thing out into the Gulf, especially if it continues to gradually weaken. As a note, the lowest pressures ever recorded in the western hemisphere all occurred in the general area off of the western tip of Cuba. Once again, just my opinion.
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Here you go JHS. Your very own tropical system that has tons of rain with it :confused:. It looks like we will have quite a bit up this way, maybe even upwards of isolated 6" across Upstate SC and N GA.
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HMON froze but came back with showing East Gulf rose coastline slam into panhandle at a Cat 4 moat like and absolutely worse casee for AL and GA geez
 
I'm a man of my word if nothing else.... create your own Spann thread for all I care or use the banter thread but for the love of all hurricanes that have, are, or will ever be please stop mentioning Spann in this thread. Now if y'all want to fire me go right ahead it's been that kind of week! o_O:confused::D

And I'm not as awful as I may sound lol
 
metwannabe said:
I'm a man of my word if nothing else.... create your own Spann thread for all I care or use the banter thread but for the love of all hurricanes that have, are, or will ever be please stop mentioning Spann in this thread. Now if y'all want to fire me go right ahead it's been that kind of week! o_O:confused::D
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Fire you

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Jackstraw said:
By Golly, she completed a real down to earth honest to goodness ERC! Keep it away from Cuba and look out. Temp 9 and 20 respectively outside inside the eye on the last vortex.
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Yeah and just like that cloud tops are cooling again....
 
Flo said:
SC dodged a bullet. Glad but feel sorry for Florida.
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Going off the GFS, the wind field will expand and make it a rough day for the Midlands and Upstate. Then the tornado threat could be really bad.

Flo said:
Predictions on the Euro anyone?
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It will be very close to the UKMET at landfall point in all likehood. Might even smidge a bit East this run right up the middle of Florida, not as extreme to the West coast.



On a side note, I'd like to ask if the UKMET sniffed this very far SW idea out many days ago? I heard it was the SW most model and over did it?
 
Perhaps this will be the proverbial "straw" that pushes the gov't to fully invest in a new model solution...we need more petaflops and we need them now.
 
Every tick west messes up the timing with the SW. I'm not saying its not going to get picked up, but as time moves forward how aggressively will it get picked up. The longer this plays out the steering is going to go to Sh%t early next week.
 
Jackstraw said:
Every tick west messes up the timing with the SW. I'm not saying its not going to get picked up, but as time moves forward how aggressively will it get picked up. The longer this plays out the steering is going to go to Sh%t early next week.
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So you're saying there is an outside shot of this not being picked up at all and continuing west? Just trying to get clarification on your statement and if so, man wonder how that would effect the eventual track of Jose (which is for another discussion in another thread but...)
 
metwannabe said:
So you're saying there is an outside shot of this not being picked up at all and continuing west? Just trying to get clarification on your statement and if so, man wonder how that would effect the eventual track of Jose (which is for another discussion in another thread but...)
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That is an outside chance, but there's a big difference between getting picked up and being pulled up I guess i should say. Say it pulls an HMON. by the time it gets to or into the conus the steering flow is going to begin to deteriorate. and we could be looking at a drifting system. Every tick west brings that scenario more into play to the point we could see a system stalled in the Eastern Gulf.
Once again, just throwing it out there but more delays in timing start bringing other scenarios into play.
 
Looks to be moving just barely N of due west, but it really needs to gain some latitude if it's going to miss Cuba
 
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