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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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12Z HMON looks like it will miss Cuba as well. Very similar to GFS in terms of placement, maybe little further West, at the end of it's run.

HMON
Hmon_126.png


GFS
GFS_126.png
 
Yeah, it's going to take a lot of changes to get this over towards Texas. Even "IF" it got into the Gulf we'd likely see it pushed to the East.. opening doors for quite the tornado threat into parts of GA, SC, NC.
 
So this 500mb feature that's supposed to capture this thing (the reason we are seeing it take a sharp turn North and into FL on the last run) ... has this been modeled about the same barring speed adjustments? Is there a possible way there is no SW? I haven't been paying very close attention to those maps/that feature.
 
Shawn said:
So this 500mb feature that's supposed to capture this thing (the reason we are seeing it take a sharp turn North and into FL on the last run) ... has this been modeled about the same barring speed adjustments? Is there a possible way there is no SW? I haven't been paying very close attention to those maps/that feature.
Click to expand...
Levi said that it is a vary crucial and very difficult feature to predict. If I interpreted a tweet from him right from what was posted earlier, if it doesn't exist, someone in the Gulf will be in trouble, but not Texas.
 
Shawn said:
So this 500mb feature that's supposed to capture this thing (the reason we are seeing it take a sharp turn North and into FL on the last run) ... has this been modeled about the same barring speed adjustments? Is there a possible way there is no SW? I haven't been paying very close attention to those maps/that feature.
Click to expand...

Honestly probably not, it'll just make the hurricane harder to forecast but I do remember with one winter storm that we were tracking that when it was still in the medium range there was a high pressure that went poof and it changed everything with the wintry forecast.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Levi said that it is a vary crucial and very difficult feature to predict. If I interpreted a tweet from him right from what was posted earlier, if it doesn't exist, someone in the Gulf will be in trouble, but not Texas.
Click to expand...
Okay, so basically the strength and speed is going to be a problem... seems even 24 hours out there are surprises, from previous experience.

This hurricane is going to be a nightmare for emergency management!!!
 
Waiting on Webber to come on with a new Kermit meme!!! :)
This is looking bad for all of the SE with coastal areas, and inland areas as well! If I was in GA,SC,NC, I'd be starting to think about some planning and preparation now! It's only 5-7 days away from affecting some of these areas, especially FL!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Levi said that it is a vary crucial and very difficult feature to predict. If I interpreted a tweet from him right from what was posted earlier, if it doesn't exist, someone in the Gulf will be in trouble, but not Texas.
Click to expand...

Seems correct. He specifically told me on Twitter WGOM being "highly unlikely" (my words) is "correct" (his words).
 
Levi's server is getting annihilated from Irma forecasts already and we aren't even in the true "hype stage" yet.

He has a patron link on the site, that helps him keep the server going etc.. fwiw.
 
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