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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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GaWx said:
12Z EPS hour 120: near ATL vs 0Z EPS hour 132 near Augusta consistent with westward shift Storm5 just mentioned.
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Larry, you are probably going to get some pretty scary weather down your way, whatever run you choose today!
 
If the Euro is right the whole state of Florida might have to evacuate.
 
As Larry mentioned with his super fast eps lol
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UKMET + EURO + EPS. VS GFS. This is looking a lot better for the GA/SC coasts. Finally feeling slightly better about this for mby.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Larry, you are probably going to get some pretty scary weather down your way, whatever run you choose today!
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Yes, but will it be the absolute devastation like some models have suggested at times or will it just be "pretty scary"/bad.
 
Shawn said:
UKMET + EURO + EPS. VS GFS. This is looking a lot better for the GA/SC coasts. Finally feeling slightly better about this for mby.
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Maybe for the coast but inland areas of those states would still have big issues

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Did these people not just see the Euro? If you are on the coast and that verifies you are more safe staying put.

"GA, mandatory evac. all counties East of I-95, SC evac. is voluntary now, likely mandatory 10AM Saturday for coastal counties. Colleges on the coast closing now, asking students to go home."
 
Flo said:
Did these people not just see the Euro? If you are on the coast and that verifies you are more safe staying put.

"GA, mandatory evac. all counties East of I-95, SC evac. is voluntary now, likely mandatory 10AM Saturday for coastal counties. Colleges on the coast closing now, asking students to go home."
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Problem with that is that that was one Euro run, and it's hard to say "no need to evacuate" based on a single run of a single model. They go based on what the National Hurricane Center/National Weather Service tells them, and at this point, NHC has not changed the track.
 
Bama Ravens said:
Problem with that is that that was one Euro run, and it's hard to say "no need to evacuate" based on a single run of a single model. They go based on what the National Hurricane Center/National Weather Service tells them, and at this point, NHC has not changed the track.
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Well shouldn't they tell people to give it another day to see if the models stick to this western track?
 
Storm5 said:
I just have a hard time buying into the fact that it would not feel the weakness sooner and turn North . Someone help me out. That's a massive weakness and a powerful storm . 1+2 = poleward

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Looks like gfs and especially euro moving quicker with that trof in NE. Building heights east of Irma.
 
BHS1975 said:
Wonder if the NHC is going to shift there track since they're so in love with the euro.


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They might a little bit but nothing drastic. Like you won't see it over Atlanta . Still plenty of time to slowly shift the track west or east . Let's remember , just cause there was a west trend in the 12z runs does not mean it can't trend back east . Still lots of shifts expected over the coming 24-36 hours

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Aren't the winds kind of high for the pressure ? 922 mb is the same pressure Andrew was I believe. I don't think winds were 175 mph with Andrew were they ?
 
pcbjr said:
Hey man!

See that but what way does the wrench turn?
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Million dollar question. That's why they call them Gremlins:eek:
It really is pretty much a race now. Every big storm I've ever seen get into this general area it always comes down to this. Ridge building to its NE, weakening trof, shortwaves racing down it. Those are all of the big players. the little guys that models dont resolve well can have a bigger influence than normal. That small ridge building over Katia? That could easily force the SW's shallower and a little more east if it overperforms as the entire weakness gets pinched from both sides. We're getting real close to the devils in the details time, not just overall patterns.

Edited for crappy keyboard ;)
 
GaWx said:
Based on Matthew, outages could easily be far higher than the 20-40% predicted for the GA coast. I'd think 90%+, unfortunately.
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That map is horrendously wrong over GA, NC and SC. If the 12z GFS verified, I can see 60-70%, maybe more, over upstate SC into the mountains of NC.
 
I remember Hurricane Opal! I was a senior in high school and the wind was crazy in Atlanta! I think she was barely a hurricane still or a very strong tropical storm. All I know is that the winds were scary. I didn't sleep for fear of my neighbors' trees falling on our house, especially my room. Oh, and we lost power too, can't remember for how long.

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Yall should see Eric Blake's twitter an nhc forecaster he knows his stuff and hes got chills with the forecast of a worst case scenario track of a cat 4+

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Weatherlover92 said:
Hmm, Brad Nitz was just talking about the NHC track of Hurricane Irma and it updated to the 5pm track live on air. It's a shift to the west. It showed Irma still a Cat 1 over NE GA.
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Cat 1 you say? Can we get the giant fans out soon? This keeps sounding worse and worse. I'm hoping for the best that it weakens, but it is sounding worse each hour it gets closer.
 
All of this new balloon data being sent 6 hourly is going to be a God send for the models and forecast! Excited to see the 18z GFS.
 
Storm5 said:
The west shift continues

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And here comes the panic I'm sure. I expected the wobble of the models with this morning going east, then it going west again. Watch them wobble a bit more, but I'm sure this is going to end horribly for all of the Floridian peninsula. It's not looking good for all of GA and parts of SC.
 
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