Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

[Jesse]

Also, off a bit, but when are we resuming the live thread updates? It's already quite active and it's going to be more so the next few hours.

Yes, extremely convenient.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Winds seem considerably stronger, and I don't even think recon is near the eye yet...

 

[Webberweather53]

I think the winds are gonna catch up in a hurry once the eye wall replacement cycle finishes... Flight level winds are at 105 knots already w/ MSLP only down to 990mb. Uh oh...

 

[Jesse]

Too early to be declaring anything. If the shortwave goes bye bye, an Ike like track is VERY much on the table.

From what I can see, no models even hint at this. But Levi raised my eyebrow saying how hard that feature was to predict. Very concerning comment for my neck of the woods. Esp since no models actually show the feature dissipating. Hopefully I'm paranoid (I mean, vigilant) for nothing.

 

[Webberweather53]

Yikes.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yikes.
View attachment 1097

I am starting to think we will see a jump up to a cat 4 at 2.

 

[Storm5]

Live thread is on

 

[ForsythSnow]

No doubt from recon we have another ERC.

 

[tractor girl]

Isn't ERC technically a good thing?

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

An ERC is usually a good thing but wasn't Irma strengthening anyway this morning despite it or just staying pat?

 

[$alt]

Isn't ERC technically a good thing?

Usually with a storm of this magnitude, ERC will happen periodically, and end up strengthening the storm in the long run.

 

[$alt]

People hope for an ERC to happen right before landfall, though. For example, Harvey underwent an ERC early, too far away from the coast of Texas and ended up making it to Cat 4.

 

[Webberweather53]

While Irma hasn't intensified much the past few hours, Irma's outer eyewall has already become more dominant and is slowly choking off the inner one. We're probably going to see a substantial intensification boost once this is complete given the environment it's heading into

 

[Jesse]

Live thread is on

Thank you!

 

[Storm5]

Lots of NW inland tracks after landfall on the 12z gefs

 

[ForsythSnow]

Lots of NW inland tracks after landfall on the 12z gefs

 

[deltadog03]

Storm, especially with that building high in the NE

 

[Arcc]

That's coming from Levi too. That makes it even more scary. I can see where he is coming from about the shortwave. If that goes poof, we will see a Gulf storm, no doubt. However, if it is a monster it should pull north... into Florida or Louisiana before it can make it to Texas due to pure intensity .

Yeah the first s/w is the exit by sea s/w. That door is closing. The second one is the ULL s/w that will capture and tug it NE then NW or something like that unto shore. We know how hard it is predict a strong ULL, much less a weak diffuse one.

 

[tractor girl]

Have a link to the chaser feed?

 

[Snow_chaser]

I deleted the post I put about the live feed of chasers in boat. Apparently I fell for a gimmick, the feed was actually a video that was over 4 yrs old. I'm better off not posting and keep to just watching lol