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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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WeatherWatch said:
Power outage prediction map
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Based on Matthew, outages could easily be far higher than the 20-40% predicted for the GA coast. I'd think 90%+, unfortunately.
 
I imagine our area could see inland tropical storm warnings for the first time since I don't know when if these models happened.
 
BHS1975 said:
Why does it keep bringing it into Cuba with the big gap in the ridge?


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None of the models are handling the SW thats forecast to come down very well. As the current trof weakens and tilts the ridge is slowly building west again. There are features in the cari the models aren't handling well imparting western influence. I seriously wouldnt trust any run beond 72 hours right now. Perhaps by 00Z we'll see something more definitive.
 
This run is great news for Georgia and South Carolina and horrible for Florida taken verbatim

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Shawn said:
UKMET + Euro vs everything else? I can't choose!
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I think that the significance of this 12Z Euro is that is consistent with the westward adjustment of every other 12Z model. We've seen this song and dance before but this MAY once again be signaling more westerly track changes changes ahead. Keep in mind that early Sep. climo says that the vast majority of TCs moving WNW near the N coast of Cuba do not turn sharply northward...just something to keep in mind as it based on looking at 165 years of history.
 
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Dang euro west and still easy 3 days to go for changes
 
Think Irma just took a breath. I think it will begin to re-intensify sometime in the next 24 hours (like thats a big difference atm!). The last 12 hours of recon have shown a pretty good expansion of the wind field especially in the northern quads. If it does weaken at some point I hope the media emphasizes that the difference between 185 and 145 is a concrete slab or just 4 walls standing. The public hears weakening they think they are out of the woods.
 
Eps should be interesting. I bet more members west this run
 
One of the tracks we may see is up through southern FL, up through extreme eastern GOM, cross over central FL, (roughly) back out over open water (SE coast) then makes 2nd landfall over GA/SC boarder.

If that was the case, Irma would lose strength and then gain strength again before making landfall for the 2nd time.

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WeatherWatch said:
One of the tracks we may see is up through southern FL, up through extreme eastern GOM, cross over central FL, (roughly) back out over open water (SE coast) then makes 2nd landfall over GA/SC boarder.

If that was the case, Irma would lose strength and then gain strength again before making landfall for the 2nd time.

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IDK, that NW bend is looking more likely
 
WeatherWatch said:
One of the tracks we may see is up through southern FL, up through extreme eastern GOM, cross over central FL, (roughly) back out over open water (SE coast) then makes 2nd landfall over GA/SC boarder.

If that was the case, Irma would lose strength and then gain strength again before making landfall for the 2nd time.

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Once the trough pulls out of the NE A more NW track will take shape I'm not sure a Euro like track going into western Florida would ever make it back into the Atlantic
 
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