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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...23.0N 86.6W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Hey Jimmy. I just commented last night on how I haven't seen you in a while and hoped you were ok.
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Thanks for checking in brother. I’ve just been busy. Preoccupied. I’m looking to get back in the swing of things here when winter gets going. I’ve missed you guys on here just a little bit. Hope I haven’t missed too much
 
deltadog03 said:
I know this is the **CURRENT*** steering map but IMHO its hard to ignore the global models easterly track...either way.. yall need to be prepared for this strengthening hurricane at landfall.

View attachment 151867
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I am thinking they and the hurricane models are relying on this soon to be cut off ULL to deepen in a neutral state beyond what the globals are seeing.

I do not buy it.

I also do not have a pHD in tropical meteorology
 
SD said:
I do wonder if nhc is expecting more of a satellite type interaction between the ull and tc where the ull dives more S than SE and hooks the TC more N and NW than modeled in the globals
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Euro has the ULL drift a smidge west, but the end result is the same:

ecmwf_z500_vort_us_fh27-60.gif
 
Shawn said:
Don't do that.
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Everyone remember we are an entertainment and discussion site. Please do not use information from this site to make personal decisions regarding this or any storm. Additionally we are not responsible for or sponsoring anyone chasing any storms
 
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SD said:
I do wonder if nhc is expecting more of a satellite type interaction between the ull and tc where the ull dives more S than SE and hooks the TC more N and NW than modeled in the globals
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I also agree as well. I know its very possible..It is interesting to see the split btwn the models. It makes a HUGE difference for inland areas for sure.
 
tractor girl said:
Euro has the ULL drift a smidge west, but the end result is the same:

View attachment 151874
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I personally don't think there's enough room at this point for a huge track shift. I do think it's strange that nhc is that far west of the globals but they are the experts so I'll just leave it alone for the most part. It just sucks if you are in that 2,3,4 county band where the difference between the nhc track and the 18z gfs for example may end up with wildly different outcomes
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
These are the 360hr maps you laugh at. Only somehow it’s tomorrow this time. Y’all be safe out there. Nothing stopping this train. Just keep plenty of clean pants laying around Friday because you’ll need them all. Jimmy guarantee View attachment 151876
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Listen Jimmy. ATL needs to be ground zero. This map is completely incorrect and is not in line with the forecast track. I bet soon we will see Birmingham in the cone. :)
 
Shawn said:
Listen Jimmy. ATL needs to be ground zero. This map is completely incorrect and is not in line with the forecast track. I bet soon we will see Birmingham in the cone. :)
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Yeah I don’t see it being this uniform and tightly wound as it goes inland but we’re also used to these gulf canes getting caught up in some sort of stream sweeping east and tugged off the coast quickly. Not this time. Insurance companies in trouble. A lot of this board in trouble. Never thought I’d get to sniff northeastern eyewall 300 miles inland but here we are.
 
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