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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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It's quite funny when you think about it. ULLs of this magntitude are quite rare at this latitude for this time of the year and it just happens to be diving southward at the same time a potent tropical cyclone(a big one at that) is forming in the gulf. What's the chances of this all occuring at the same time? It's this very rare set up that has the potential to be one for the ages for much of GA up through Upstate SC and the southern Appalachians. Sometimes, it really just all comes together. It's a shame this can't happen in the winter for a once in a lifetime snowstorm.
 
Henry2326 said:
Yep, it has been all week on the HWRF and HMON.
I've been expecting this all week. I live on the west side of Atlanta. It's gonna be brutal. Moved from Charleston hoping to never be in this situation again. I would have left Charleston with pressure less than 965. No where to go....The irony of it......

View attachment 151853
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955 around Canton/Dawsonville

Heck.
 
NCZ071-260515-
/O.NEW.KGSP.TR.W.1009.240925T2106Z-000000T0000Z/
Mecklenburg-
506 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Charlotte
- Huntersville
- Matthews

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 50 mph

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Efforts to protect property should now be
underway. Prepare for limited wind damage.
- ACT: Act now to complete preparations before the wind
becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes

- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
 
GFS not far off from ICON track wise.

NHC can do what they want. I'm going with models that are meant to handle 500mb vs hurricane model tracks. Still calling Athens into NE GA/NW SC for the CoC to go over.
 
Playing catchup this afternoon and every 3rd post is crying about the NHC doing what they are supposed to do…generate a forecast using every tool they have. Just because they don’t forecast it into your backyard when a couple of Global models show something similar doesn’t mean you should be up in arms about it. Most of you wouldn’t know what the globals were showing if they weren’t posted here anyway. (Drop a 🤡 emoji if that’s you) Ok rant over. Things looking like they are about to ramp up…dry are will be completely ingested soon and may clear out an eye on the process!
 
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Pulled the generator out of storage. My dad gave it to me before he passed. He taught me to take care of equipment. I replaced the carb 5 years ago haven't started it since. Had the fuel off, and ran it dry when it was parked. Had to tickle it with a little ether but she started right up and runs great (with 5 year old "Sta-bilized" gas!!)



I hope by starting it, I've jinxed the system into being shredded by dry air off the coast of FL.


Right now, though, Athens continues to remain in the line of fire (eastern quad) with latest guidance. Starting to get a little real...
 
tractor girl said:
Pulled the generator out of storage. My dad gave it to me before he passed. He taught me to take care of equipment. I replaced the carb 5 years ago haven't started it since. Had the fuel off, and ran it dry when it was parked. Had to tickle it with a little ether but she started right up and runs great (with 5 year old "Sta-bilized" gas!!)



I hope by starting it, I've jinxed the system into being shredded by dry air off the coast of FL.


Right now, though, Athens continues to remain in the line of fire (eastern quad) with latest guidance. Starting to get a little real...
Click to expand...


Usually the failure points are old ethanol gas in the carb, gunking up the jets and the gaskets breaking down/rotting. Shutting the fuel off and running it dry is a good idea and also, stabil is okay for the tank itself.. but over long times, if it's a plastic tank, it picks up moisture from all the humidity we get so i would recommend draining that after long periods too.

#1 KEY: OIL. ALWAYS CHECK OIL IN THOSE GENERATORS AND CHANGE IT FREQUENTLY.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
Many, many neighbors are going to sleep in their basements tomorrow night.
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We are. Had a giant pine next to my house snap off at the base in a storm in August. Fell exactly 180 degrees away from my house, but if it had fallen the other way I wouldn’t be typing this right now. Not taking any chances tomorrow night
 
LovingGulfLows said:
It's quite funny when you think about it. ULLs of this magntitude are quite rare at this latitude for this time of the year and it just happens to be diving southward at the same time a potent tropical cyclone(a big one at that) is forming in the gulf. What's the chances of this all occuring at the same time? It's this very rare set up that has the potential to be one for the ages for much of GA up through Upstate SC and the southern Appalachians. Sometimes, it really just all comes together. It's a shame this can't happen in the winter for a once in a lifetime snowstorm.
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It's called the fujikiwara effect
 
weatherfide said:
Fayetteville, GA 4.11" but I don't know if it's accurate. The other nearby Tempest stations are running 1.98" to 2.78" Some of them are reporting 0", too. Obviously those are placed under carports or something.
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Your are probably pretty accurate. It was raining hard for a good two hours up there before it ever started raining down here.
 
itryatmanysportsespgolf70 said:
Imo, Euro AIFS is more accurate than regular euro. Something to consider
Click to expand...

The timing of the turn from NE to N is a pretty big deal especially given the speed the storm is suppose to be moving by then....even a 6 hr difference one way or the other can shift the center path 75-100 miles west or east...
 
Atlanta

TONIGHT
Showers. Thunderstorms likely, mainly this evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent
THURSDAY
Showers. A slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 70s. East winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph, increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent
THURSDAY NIGHT
Tropical storm conditions expected. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then showers with a chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall in the evening. Near steady temperature in the upper 60s. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph, increasing to 45 to 55 mph with gusts up to 80 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent
FRIDAY
Tropical storm conditions expected. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the mid 70s. South winds 40 to 50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph, becoming southwest 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent

LEADS On-Line Home > Forecast > Atlanta, GA

weather.meteostar.com weather.meteostar.com
 
Good God the wording in here for North and Central Georgia

Hurricane Local Statement

Hurricane Helene Local Statement Advisory Number 10
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-260530-

Hurricane Helene Local Statement Advisory Number 10
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA AL092024
517 PM EDT Wed Sep 25 2024

This product covers North and Central Georgia

**HELENE TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH FRIDAY**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- The Tropical Storm Warning has been upgraded to a Hurricane
Warning for Bibb, Bleckley, Chattahoochee, Crawford, Dodge,
Houston, Marion, Muscogee, Peach, Talbot, Taylor, Telfair, and
Twiggs
- The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for Baldwin, Banks, Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll,
Catoosa, Chattooga, Cherokee, Clarke, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta,
Dade, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas, Emanuel, Fannin, Fayette, Floyd,
Forsyth, Gilmer, Glascock, Gordon, Greene, Gwinnett, Hall,
Hancock, Haralson, Heard, Henry, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson,
Johnson, Jones, Lamar, Lumpkin, Madison, Meriwether, Monroe,
Morgan, Murray, Newton, North Fulton, Oconee, Oglethorpe,
Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Polk, Putnam, Rockdale, South Fulton,
Spalding, Taliaferro, Towns, Troup, Union, Upson, Walker,
Walton, Warren, Washington, White, Whitfield, Wilkes, and
Wilkinson

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Bibb, Bleckley,
Chattahoochee, Crawford, Crisp, Dodge, Dooly, Houston, Macon,
Marion, Muscogee, Peach, Pulaski, Schley, Stewart, Sumter,
Talbot, Taylor, Telfair, Twiggs, Webster, and Wilcox
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Baldwin, Banks,
Barrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattooga, Cherokee,
Clarke, Clayton, Cobb, Coweta, Dade, Dawson, DeKalb, Douglas,
Emanuel, Fannin, Fayette, Floyd, Forsyth, Gilmer, Glascock,
Gordon, Greene, Gwinnett, Hall, Hancock, Haralson, Harris,
Heard, Henry, Jackson, Jasper, Jefferson, Johnson, Jones,
Lamar, Laurens, Lumpkin, Madison, Meriwether, Monroe,
Montgomery, Morgan, Murray, Newton, North Fulton, Oconee,
Oglethorpe, Paulding, Pickens, Pike, Polk, Putnam, Rockdale,
South Fulton, Spalding, Taliaferro, Toombs, Towns, Treutlen,
Troup, Union, Upson, Walker, Walton, Warren, Washington,
Wheeler, White, Whitfield, Wilkes, and Wilkinson

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 790 miles south of Atlanta GA or about 670 miles
south-southwest of Cordele GA
- 22.5N 86.6W
- Storm Intensity 85 mph
- Movement North or 355 degrees at 12 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Helene is currently southwest of the Florida Peninsula and
is forecast to track northward and accelerate over the eastern Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday. Helene is forecast to become a major
hurricane shortly before making landfall along the Big Bend of
Florida on Thursday evening. Significant impacts are expected across
the north and central Georgia Thursday and Friday with lingering
flooding impacts over the weekend.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches, with localized amounts over 12
inches, are expected. The highest amounts are expected over a wide
swath paralleling I-85 into northeast Georgia from Columbus to
Atlanta to Gainesville and the northeast Georgia mountains.
Widespread flooding is expected with significant flash flooding and
moderate to major river flooding possible.

Hurricane and tropical storm force wind gusts, potentially exceeding
70 mph, are expected to begin across the southern portion of the
forecast area on Thursday evening, then spread north overnight into
Friday morning and continuing into the afternoon. Given the
saturated soils, widespread downing of trees and significant power
outages are expected.

Prepare for an extended period of power loss!

Short-lived tornadoes will also be possible across east-central
Georgia Thursday evening through early Friday morning, with greatest
potential for areas north and east of the track of Helene.

Helene will be an expansive system with impacts occurring well away
from the storm center.

Preparations should be completed well before impacts begin. The time
to act is now!

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
devastating impacts across portions of northeast Georgia. Potential
impacts include:
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks
in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks,
canals, arroyos, and ditches may become raging rivers. In
mountain areas, deadly runoff may rage down valleys while
increasing susceptibility to rockslides and mudslides. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape
routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water
with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very
dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened
or washed out.

Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
significant to extensive impacts across north and central Georgia.

* WIND:
Protect against life-threatening wind having possible extensive impacts
across central Georgia and portions of north Georgia. Potential
impacts in this area include:
- Considerable roof damage to sturdy buildings, with some having
window, door, and garage door failures leading to structural
damage. Mobile homes severely damaged, with some destroyed.
Damage accentuated by airborne projectiles. Locations may be
uninhabitable for weeks.
- Many large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
or heavily wooded places. Several bridges, causeways, and
access routes impassable.
- Large areas with power and communications outages.

Also, protect against dangerous wind having possible limited to
significant impacts across the remainder of north and central Georgia.

* TORNADOES:
Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant
impacts across central and east Georgia. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots
of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or
uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about.
Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

Elsewhere across North and Central Georgia, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:

Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your
home or business.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the
storm.

If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large
trees, a manufactured home, upper floors of a high-rise building, or
on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter.

If you live in a place particularly vulnerable to flooding, such as
near the ocean or a large inland lake, in a low-lying or poor
drainage area, in a valley, or near an already swollen river, plan to
move to safe shelter on higher ground.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings. If
staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan. Listen for evacuation orders, especially pertaining to
area visitors.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on creating an emergency plan see ready.ga.gov
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Peachtree City GA around 1130 PM EDT, or sooner if
conditions warrant.

$$


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Winds gusting to tropical storm force (39 MPH) as far east as Myrtle Beach Thursday night for a storm landfalling in the Gulf is crazy. Haven’t seen a wind field this large in a long time.
 
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