NEGaweather
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Discussion from NWS in Atlanta
Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to become a major
hurricane as it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast (AL, GA,
and FL coasts). Landfall is expected to occur sometime between
Thursday morning and Friday morning (with the current cone graphic
showing landfall around 8 PM Thursday). The system is expected to
track to the north/north-northeast at a fast pace as it is
steered by a mid/upper-level trough to the west and a mid/upper-
level ridge to the east. Now 3-4 days out from the event, and
after several days of agreement among the ensemble guidance,
confidence in impacts across north and central Georgia is
increasing. Details below...
Rainfall: Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected from Wednesday night through Thursday night, with precip
expected to taper off from south to north on Friday. Widespread
rainfall totals of 4-6 inches are expected with localized totals
of 7+ inches. These localized rainfall maxima are expected within
especially intense rainbands (the location of which are difficult
pinpoint more than 24 hours out) and/or in the mountainous terrain
of north Georgia, where orographic uplift will enhance warm rain
processes. Much of the forecast area along and east of a line from
Columbus to Marietta to Gainesville (including Atlanta) is
outlined in a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall
from Thursday morning to Friday morning, indicating the potential
for flash flooding and river flooding. It is currently outside the
time frame for issuance of a Flood Watch.
Winds: Given the intensity and forward speed of the system,
strong winds will likely persist farther inland than they would
with slower moving systems. Conditions will become increasingly
breezy over the course of Thursday, with the wind field associated
with the system arriving across the southern portion of the
forecast area on Thursday evening. As the system tracks farther
inland on Thursday night and Friday morning, winds will become
strong essentially area-wide with the forecast currently calling
for 25-35 mph winds sustained (with localized stronger winds near
the center of circulation) and gusts of 35-55 mph (again, with
localized stronger gusts near the center of circulation). These
strong winds -- along with periods of heavy rainfall and resulting
moisture-laden soils -- could lead to areas of tree damage and
power line damage. It is currently outside the time frame for
issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch.
Tornadoes: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across east-central Georgia for
tropical cyclone tornadoes from Thursday morning to Friday
morning. This Marginal Risk area may be refined over the next day
or so, but whatever portion of the forecast area ends up on the
immediate eastern side of the system will have potential for low-
topped supercells and thus short-lived tornadoes, due to the
tropical airmass and ample low-level shear.
The system will be absorbed into the mid-latitude flow by Friday
and enhance a broad area of low pressure and troughing over the
Southeast through Monday. This setup -- along with residual
tropical moisture -- suggests that isolated showers will be
possible each day. The ample rainfall and cloud cover through the
period will keep high temperatures in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with
cooler temperatures in the mountains.
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Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to become a major
hurricane as it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast (AL, GA,
and FL coasts). Landfall is expected to occur sometime between
Thursday morning and Friday morning (with the current cone graphic
showing landfall around 8 PM Thursday). The system is expected to
track to the north/north-northeast at a fast pace as it is
steered by a mid/upper-level trough to the west and a mid/upper-
level ridge to the east. Now 3-4 days out from the event, and
after several days of agreement among the ensemble guidance,
confidence in impacts across north and central Georgia is
increasing. Details below...
Rainfall: Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are
expected from Wednesday night through Thursday night, with precip
expected to taper off from south to north on Friday. Widespread
rainfall totals of 4-6 inches are expected with localized totals
of 7+ inches. These localized rainfall maxima are expected within
especially intense rainbands (the location of which are difficult
pinpoint more than 24 hours out) and/or in the mountainous terrain
of north Georgia, where orographic uplift will enhance warm rain
processes. Much of the forecast area along and east of a line from
Columbus to Marietta to Gainesville (including Atlanta) is
outlined in a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall
from Thursday morning to Friday morning, indicating the potential
for flash flooding and river flooding. It is currently outside the
time frame for issuance of a Flood Watch.
Winds: Given the intensity and forward speed of the system,
strong winds will likely persist farther inland than they would
with slower moving systems. Conditions will become increasingly
breezy over the course of Thursday, with the wind field associated
with the system arriving across the southern portion of the
forecast area on Thursday evening. As the system tracks farther
inland on Thursday night and Friday morning, winds will become
strong essentially area-wide with the forecast currently calling
for 25-35 mph winds sustained (with localized stronger winds near
the center of circulation) and gusts of 35-55 mph (again, with
localized stronger gusts near the center of circulation). These
strong winds -- along with periods of heavy rainfall and resulting
moisture-laden soils -- could lead to areas of tree damage and
power line damage. It is currently outside the time frame for
issuance of a Tropical Storm Watch.
Tornadoes: Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across east-central Georgia for
tropical cyclone tornadoes from Thursday morning to Friday
morning. This Marginal Risk area may be refined over the next day
or so, but whatever portion of the forecast area ends up on the
immediate eastern side of the system will have potential for low-
topped supercells and thus short-lived tornadoes, due to the
tropical airmass and ample low-level shear.
The system will be absorbed into the mid-latitude flow by Friday
and enhance a broad area of low pressure and troughing over the
Southeast through Monday. This setup -- along with residual
tropical moisture -- suggests that isolated showers will be
possible each day. The ample rainfall and cloud cover through the
period will keep high temperatures in the mid-70s to mid-80s, with
cooler temperatures in the mountains.
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