Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[cyclogent]

Interesting that the heaviest rain in GA is forecast to be in North GA, with less rain in South GA.

Stalled frontal boundary expected to enhance rainfall totals a bit.

 

[BullCityWx]

Stalled frontal boundary, the atlantic wide open as well to increase moisture with a low pushing up against the mountains from the south and you have the recipe for massive flooding between 77 and the TN/NC state line.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Impressive rainfall potential over a wide area. No flood/flash flood watches have been posted yet, which is actually surprising.

View attachment 151605

FFC said it was outside the time frame of watch issuance in their AFD

National Weather Service

forecast.weather.gov

 

[wxdaniel]

That would be a category 2 hurricane with a bonified eyewall still coming straight through here. Likely wrong but there's a lot of model runs with this track and intensity ranging from tropical storm to cat 2 still in strength this far inland.

Highly unlikely as dry air from the west moves into the core.

 

[jrips27]

Would have to say the weaker camp may be winning for the moment. Good thread

 

[Henry2326]

They are all aligned for path through north GA...HWRF is slightly faster. 963 to 980 pressure.....

 

[Metwannabe]

Goodness I go for a short run and look what happens lol. I see Shane cleaned it up for us, come on everyone keep it on topic, no snarky comments, no wishcasting or wishcasting accusations and add as much context to post as possible (try to stay away from the one liner stuff). Thanks

 

[BullCityWx]

Pretty sure that precip map is significantly underdone

 

[Brent]

Recon supports an upgrade easily

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Recon supports an upgrade easily

IDK. Those 50-knot barbs are well removed from the center.

But, it does finally seem to be getting better organized this AM.

 

[iGRXY]

It looks like it is deepening and consolidating very well this morning. I think we have a Hurricane by the time we get to the Yucatan Channel

 

[DustinWx]

It looks more like a growing nor-Easter than a tropical storm to my untrained eye

 

[Henry2326]

I'm just floored at how we have 4 hurricane models, ALIGNED, with path and crazy low pressure and the most warning we give people is 115 mph with confusion on the map. I'm usually a fan of NHC and maybe they know something I don't know that makes them ignore aligned models.

 

[DustinWx]

I'm just floored at how we have 4 hurricane models, ALIGNED, with path and crazy low pressure and the most warning we give people is 115 mph with confusion on the map. I'm usually a fan of NHC and maybe they know something I don't know that makes them ignore aligned models.

It’s a fine line. We don’t have a developed storm yet. If they predict a cat 5 hurricane into Florida and then it busts, they lose.

The nhc says they are being conservative. I think they are on par

 

[Henry2326]

06z Hurricane models in the gate.....
HWRF. 969
Hmon 980
HAFS A 970
HAFS B 968

 

[Henry2326]

It’s a fine line. We don’t have a developed storm yet. If they predict a cat 5 hurricane into Florida and then it busts, they lose.

The nhc says they are being conservative. I think they are on par

I guess their reputation is more important than warning south georgia that has cat4 coming head on.....for another day....we will see how this works out for them.

 

[SD]

Let's see if that new bubble of convection north of the center starts wrapping

 

[weatherboyy]

We have Helene

 

[tractor girl]

It's looking more organized but do not see a defined center here