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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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jrips27 said:
"The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future."
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this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
 
ILMRoss said:
this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
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Just going over the Recon data looks like it shows two or three different little spins that they found so nothing definitive yet for sure
 
ILMRoss said:
this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
Click to expand...
LOL, visible loop has been refreshed every five minutes since sunrise.

That low-level swirl is booking it SSW around the mean center. It'll be interesting whether or not it is pulled back in or the mid-level center takes over.
 
ILMRoss said:
this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
Click to expand...
Have a feeling it'll rotate back around. The overall circulation envelope is massive. Seeing multiple small Eddies just whipping around her right now.
 
Arcc said:
Just to jog everyone’s memory, but these big Caribbean gyre type storms are really messy every time in the formation stages.

Ugly, early is par for the course.
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This is true. I think if you looked at the satellite pictures of Michael in its formation stages, you would think no way is that gonna be a category 5 hurricane
 
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