Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[HugeSnowStick]

 

[Downeastnc]

NHC now has it landfalling at 115 mph...still has two eyewalls....nudge track east.

 

[weatherfide]

View attachment 151920

Oh, now they move the track back to the Euro, I see. Fly the planes, let us call the shots, NHC. We don't need you guys now that we have the Euro AI!

 

[Belle Lechat]

In 24 hours there could be a hurricane over central Georgia.

 

[Shawn]

And I'm expecting that track to keep on shifting East through the day.

Kind of funny

 

[Shawn]

They're shifting it back east because the overnight ships and super ensemble did so.

This is trying to keep atl on the more sane side. The last thing atl needs is to be on the east side of this storm.

With that said, this really hurts gsp

Here's the gefs for example.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Shawn]

Lower pressure is gonna take a bit to realize winds with such a large storm but these are consistent and fast pressure drops, regardless of a visible eyewall or not

 

[Downeastnc]

Looking better but still struggling to get deep convection wrapped all the way around still pressure down another few MB....regardless the huge east side windfield is gonna push massive surge.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

536 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 600 AM EDT.

* AT 535 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF COPELAND, OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF AVE
MARIA, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AVE MARIA, IMMOKALEE, GOLDEN GATE ESTATES, ORANGETREE, BIG
CORKSCREW ISLAND, MILES CITY, CORKSCREW SWAMP SANCTUARY, SUNNILAND,
BUNKER HILL, AND LAKE TRAFFORD.

 

[chuckhendo]

Potentially dumb question here - I know that larger storms tend to take longer to intensify; does the inverse tend to hold true as well - are larger storms more resilient? Is it more likely to remain stronger inland just due to its size, or is that really irrelevant?

 

[DustinWx]

One thing I noticed is the nhc weakened intensity guidance but there’s a lot of water between their max intensity point and the coast.

Just saying

 

[Belle Lechat]

555 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS EXTENDED
THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 800 AM EDT.

* AT 555 AM EDT, RUTHERFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS REPORTING
THAT THE TOWN OF LAKE LURE HAS OPENED TAINTER GATES TO A DEPTH OF
14 FEET DUE TO FLASH FLOODING ABOVE LAKE LURE. THE RESULTANT
FLOODWAVE CONTINUES TO IMPACT SEVERAL AREAS DOWNSTREAM, INCLUDING:
RIVER CREEK CAMPGROUND, HOMES IN THE GREEN HILL COMMUNITY, AREAS
IN THE CLEGHORN AND UNION COMMUNITIES, AND COX RD. RESIDENTS ARE
URGED TO HEED EVACUATION GUIDANCE FROM RUTHERFORD COUNTY EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

HAZARD...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING RESULTING IN DAM GATE
RELEASES.

SOURCE...RADAR.

IMPACT...LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE BROAD RIVER,
IMPACTING CAMPGROUNDS, HOMES, ROADWAYS AND OTHER
ADJACENT LOW-LYING AREAS NEAR THE BROAD RIVER.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE MINOR TO MODERATE FLASH
FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAKE LURE, HARRIS AND CLIFFSIDE.

 

[Belle Lechat]

eye track movement

 

[Downeastnc]

One thing I noticed is the nhc weakened intensity guidance but there’s a lot of water between their max intensity point and the coast.

Just saying

They mention they expect it to strengthen till landfall so maybe 120-125 at landfall...if it can get it together.

 

[BullCityWx]

With the shifts overnight to the east, it’s pushing the tornado threat overnight today and early Friday that way.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[BullCityWx]

Even if these gusts are, let’s say 25% off, those are still significant for a good portion of CLT and the metro.

 

[LickWx]

Even if these gusts are, let’s say 25% off, those are still significant for a good portion of CLT and the metro.


View attachment 151925

Gon be good for 50 mph gusts there! Windy day

 

[MichaelAndrews]

Think that east shift will make things much worse in CAE than most around here are expecting
However GSP looks like a bullseye right now

 

[Belle Lechat]

622 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 630 AM EDT.

* AT 622 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR CHOKOLOSKEE, MOVING NORTH AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHOKOLOSKEE, EVERGLADES CITY, AND PLANTATION ISLAND.

...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM,

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Tarheel1]

With this look and all the lopsided convection and dry air wrapping in, I don’t see this becoming a Cat 3, imo

 

[Belle Lechat]

Heading for another center reading

 

[Belle Lechat]

629 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 645 AM EDT.

* AT 629 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER EVERGLADES CITY, MOVING NORTH AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHOKOLOSKEE, EVERGLADES CITY, PLANTATION ISLAND, CARNESTOWN,
COPELAND, SOUTH BLOCKS GOLDE, FAKAHATCHEE STRAND STATE PRESERVE,
PICAYUNE STRAND STATE FOREST, AND PORT OF THE ISLAND.


TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM,

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Tarheel1]

Dryslot gonna keep this from being a lot worse! Latest GFS

 

[Stevo24]

Dryslot gonna keep this from being a lot worse! Latest GFSView attachment 151928
View attachment 151929View attachment 151930

It’s almost never as bad as it’s made out to be.There’s always potential for it to be but usually never pans out.

 

[DustinWx]

Pressure keeps dropping. Dry air is gone and recon shows a closed eyewall.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Pressure keeps dropping. Dry air is gone and recon shows a closed eyewall.

Cat 3 FL winds now on the east side. It's bomb time most likely the moment hot towers go up on the west side unless the dropping pressure/increasing winds spread the rest around faster.

 

[Shaggy]

With the shifts overnight to the east, it’s pushing the tornado threat overnight today and early Friday that way.




View attachment 151924

Hrrr Says central.and eastern NC have tornado problems

 

[Carolina Jones]

Maybe it won't be a cat 3, but I think the big problem is going to be rain and the tornado threat.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Engeo]

It’s almost never as bad as it’s made out to be.There’s always potential for it to be but usually never pans out.

It seems like dry air always finds its way in, no matter what. Very interesting.

 

[RBR71]

Hrrr Says central.and eastern NC have tornado problems View attachment 151933

Yep, with the slight shift east the severe threat here tomorrow is getting a little attention

 

[NCSNOW]

Anyone got the past 24 hrs rainfall qpf map. The apps from north GA, especially NC have been getting trained over for about 12 straight hours now. Thanks in advance

 

[RBR71]

Maybe it won't be a cat 3, but I think the big problem is going to be rain and the tornado threat.

Winds will still be huge issue for Fl, inland Ga and upstate SC, even mountains of NC due to forward speed and energy from the interaction from the ULL. Whether its hits as a 4, 3 or 2 I believe those factors don't really change the possible impacts well inland

 

[packfan98]

Good morning folks. There are many of you posting banter that’s cluttering up thread. Also, we are going to have a lot of new traffic here today, so let’s keep most of the funny and sarcastic posts out of this thread. We don’t want anyone to get the wrong idea.
Thanks and be safe!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Anyone got the past 24 hrs rainfall qpf map. The apps from north GA, especially NC have been getting trained over for about 12 straight hours now. Thanks in advance

I don’t have a map but I can give you some ground reports from around here. McDowell county 7-11 inches of rain so far with multiple swift water rescues done overnight. All before the main event.