Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[Belle Lechat]

FLASH FLOOD WARNING TALLAHASSEE FL - KTAE 821 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024
TORNADO WARNING MIAMI FL - KMFL 820 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

Severe Weather Warnings Page

 

[Carolina Jones]

Where

That's what they posted on Facebook when the latest advisory came out.

 

[BufordWX]

 

[NEGaweather]

Where

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[crecre9]

View attachment 151944

6 mb in 6 hr is RI. Bombs away.

 

[FallsLake]

9z RAP total QPF (out to hour 48):


Found one spot check of ~17" near Mt Mitchell.

 

[SD]

You can see by the cloud structure that Helene is about to accelerate. Definitely feeling the trough.

Edit: Not predicting exact track with that line.

View attachment 151945

Yeah the shear/divergence effects are showing

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

844 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 915 AM EDT.

* AT 844 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED NEAR SAINT LUCIE WEST, OR NEAR WHITE CITY, MOVING NORTH
AT 30 MPH.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

A tick east, but man these corrected hurricane tracks just won't cave even within 24 hours. Wild.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

A tick east, but man these corrected hurricane tracks just won't cave even within 24 hours. Wild.
View attachment 151954

What makes you think these are incorrect?

 

[RBR71]

A tick east, but man these corrected hurricane tracks just won't cave even within 24 hours. Wild.
View attachment 151954

They may end up being correct, but where all global models (and even some in house models) con't Helene on a NNE track to landfall, the cane models turn due N on a dime in the GOM. I tend to lean towards globals that handle upper air pattern better but just mho

 

[ForsythSnow]

A tick east, but man these corrected hurricane tracks just won't cave even within 24 hours. Wild.
View attachment 151954

With the direction it's moving right now based on recon I'd tend to go more with the spaghetti modeling but I'm not sure why the graphical depictions of each respective model vary so much. Something isn't syncing correctly. Any other site showing the same as TT's output for the hurricane models?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

What makes you think these are incorrect?

Every global models says they are

 

[HugeSnowStick]

Every global models says they are

Well, the best thing to do is just wait and see later this afternoon...We have no control.

 

[NEGaweather]

My uneducated guess is forward speed has something to do with the prediction of due north


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[NEGaweather]

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[Wild Weather Monger]

What makes you think these are incorrect?

Clearly, the NHC thinks they are correct. But, I've never seen these tropical model plots clustered so tightly in such disagreement with all global models this close to landfall. Even the meso models tropical and non-tropical are generally east of those plots particularly inland.

So IDK, my best guess as a hobbyist is a slightly different interaction with the ULL once inland is the difference in track.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Mahomeless]

Dry air getting choked out.....maybe its finally go time....

 

[deltadog03]

it looks like to me it’s finally trying to get its act together now. I would favor the global model ideas vs the spaghetti plots.

 

[Belle Lechat]

920 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL CATAWBA COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHERN ALEXANDER COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...
WEST CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 945 AM EDT.

* AT 919 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 5 MILES EAST OF NEWTON, OR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CATAWBA, MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

 

[Henry2326]

A tick east, but man these corrected hurricane tracks just won't cave even within 24 hours. Wild.
View attachment 151954

That's more than a tick.....it's a big jump. See comparison to 18z

 

[superjames1992]

Glad I don’t live in Tallahassee anymore. I remember when I moved there in 2016, they hadn’t had a direct hit from a hurricane in over three decades. Then literally months later they had Hermine, then Michael (not a direct hit but still) while I was still there, and now this.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

That's more than a tick.....it's a big jump. See comparison to 18z

View attachment 151956View attachment 151957

Yeah, they have been correcting east since 18Z. I was referring to the 06Z plots. I suspect the eastward shifts aren't done yet.

 

[Henry2326]

View attachment 151958

Not as low as HWRF and HMON have in forecasts.....964 compared to 955/957.

 

[Thor]

Pretty solid

 

[RBR71]

For NC peeps (especially central/eastern), HRRR still showing a solid severe threat tomorrow with a good number of spin-ups.

 

[BHS1975]

For NC peeps (especially central/eastern), HRRR still showing a solid severe threat tomorrow with a good number of spin-ups.

That track has produced many tornadoes in the past. I was in one while working on the ramp at RDU. It looked like a white sheet coming up the runway.


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[mrdaddyman]

Currently East of track:

 

[Belle Lechat]

937 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN BROWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 1000 AM EDT.

* AT 937 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND
MIAMI CANAL, OR 22 MILES WEST OF PEMBROKE PINES, MOVING NORTH AT 50
MPH.

 

[Belle Lechat]

952 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2024

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WEST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH
CAROLINA...
EASTERN GASTON COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA...

* UNTIL 1015 AM EDT.

* AT 952 AM EDT, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF UPTOWN CHARLOTTE, OR NEAR
CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AIRPORT, MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.


* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
BELMONT, LAKE WYLIE, AND CHARLOTTE DOUGLAS AIRPORT AROUND 1000 AM
EDT.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I'm not writing any possibility off until tonight for anywhere in GA. This is the most critical time to see what Helene does. A 2 now can mean anything from a 2 to a 4 at landfall tonight especially if deep RI is starting soon. I hope it's not bad but I don't think we should jump to conclusions just yet.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

A tick NW of the 06Z run, but yet again, east of the NHC cone. Yes, it's the NAM, yada, yada, yada. This is a 15-hour forecast.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[wxdaniel]

I'm not writing any possibility off until tonight for anywhere in GA. This is the most critical time to see what Helene does. A 2 now can mean anything from a 2 to a 4 at landfall tonight especially if deep RI is starting soon. I hope it's not bad but I don't think we should jump to conclusions just yet.

What are you talking about? Or is this in general a “in my backyard”?

 

[Carolina Jones]

For NC peeps (especially central/eastern), HRRR still showing a solid severe threat tomorrow with a good number of spin-ups.

It'll be interesting to see what the schools do here.

 

[wxdaniel]

A tick NW of the 06Z run, but yet again, east of the NHC cone. Yes, it's the NAM, yada, yada, yada. This is a 15-hour forecast.
View attachment 151966

Unlike the others the NAM is picking up on a stronger trough out west. Has been for several hours now.