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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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DustinWx said:
No hurricane force FL winds in NW quad
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Recon shows that that Dvorak radii below is bad.

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HugeSnowStick said:
You are forgetting the northern wall, which will have significant punch.
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Do you mean this "north" wall? It's deteriorating quickly at the same latitude as Atlanta and it's a good 50 miles east of the city, moving NE. The north wall doesn't even cross the eastern suburbs of Atlanta.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I was in Carrollton for Opal and we had at least 70 mph winds. Many houses on my street had trees fall on them.
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Opal's center went through Alabama. In this scenario, Augusta is going to be playing the role of Carrollton in Opal's Oppression.
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The Upstate, NE GA, and WNC are going to have a rough 20-24 hours to go. Things have shifted east to align with the globals so I expect another 4-8" on top of my 3" currently that I've gotten since Tuesday night. Winds I think may be a little stronger now. I would be very concerned about tornadoes and severe weather for anybody along and east of 77 in NC/SC.
 
DustinWx said:
Help explain in layman’s terms :)
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Whereas the Dvorak graph supposedly shows the radius to which hurricane force winds extend in the NW quadrant, as indicated by the R64 red line, R64 meaning a radius of 64 knots, or 73.65 mph, and the box in the lower corner saying the hurricane force winds in the NW quadrant extend out 25.0 n.mi., the recon graph has the wind speed barbs showing there aren't hurricane force winds in the NW quadrant.
 
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Snowflowxxl said:
The fear mongering by some on Twitter was a bit much yesterday. Looking like 4-6 inches of rain and 30-40 mph gust.
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I know there are certainly a ton of twitter and reddit alarmist posts, but to be fair though it was looking pretty dicey for ATL with a lot of signs pointing to a historic event up here that would make Irma and Opal look like child's play........ BUT I think it was all dependent on Helene getting its s*** together through the night, and while it has intensified, it has been nowhere near worst-case scenario. I wonder if this affected the track some which is why we're seeing the more eastern solutions become more likely as time goes on. Anyway, it still has another 300ish miles or more of warm ocean to cross, so we'll see what ends up happening.
 
Belle Lechat said:
Whereas the Dvorak graph supposedly shows the radius to which hurricane force winds extend in the NW quadrant, as indicated by the R64 red line, R64 meaning a radius of 64 knots, or 73.65 mph, and the box in the lower corner saying the hurricane force winds in the NW quadrant extend out 25.0 n.mi., the recon graph has the wind speed barbs showing there aren't hurricane force winds in the NW quadrant.
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I started to update my post above, but I'll respond to it instead. Despite recon showing no hurricane force winds in the NW quadrant, the NHS map shows no hurricane force winds in the SW quadrant.

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So that's 3 sources saying different things. I assume recon has the correct information since it has actual data you can check.

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There's a plane in the SW quadrant right now, so we're about to get new readings.
 
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I am really hoping our resident hobbyist and Mets on this board are more correct than the NHC and that cone is straddling the Eastern GA border on the next update. Not looking forward to being without power for days on end and that would save us from that though I worry about our guys to the East of us. I know most of you do not want this either, Good luck to all and especially property owners here.
 
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Wild Weather Monger said:
For sure. And as MBY is 40 miles east of downtown Atlanta, I have a special interest to see if that NHC track pans out.
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I still think the worst of the winds will be east of a dawsonville to Lawrenceville to Forsyth line.(gusts at or over 60). I'm having a real difficult time understanding the nhcs reasoning being so far west when just about every model is to the east...some well to the east of their track. It's rather frustrating they still wont address their reasoning. My neck of the woods/Athens area seems poised to be slammed regardless...but it seems obvious very strong winds are going to be extended well into the Carolinas. One just hopes people there aren't caught off guard because they see the nhc track so far to the west.
 
Looks like they pushed the track East before landfall and then West after landfall. This shows the last 4 forecast tracks: green, blue, purple, and then the dotted line in that order of issuance.

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Makeitsnow said:
I still think the worst of the winds will be east of a dawsonville to Lawrenceville to Forsyth line.(gusts at or over 60). I'm having a real difficult time understanding the nhcs reasoning being so far west when just about every model is to the east...some well to the east of their track. It's rather frustrating they still wont address their reasoning. My neck of the woods/Athens area seems poised to be slammed regardless...but it seems obvious very strong winds are going to be extended well into the Carolinas. One just hopes people there aren't caught off guard because they see the nhc track so far to the west.
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Based on modeling, the center is far more likely to go over Athens than Atlanta.

And yes, it's beyond frustrating the NHC continues to not explain their reasoning. Especially in this social media age with so much modeling data available to the layman.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
I am really hoping our resident hobbyist and Mets on this board are more correct than the NHC and that cone is straddling the Eastern GA border on the next update. Not looking forward to being without power for days on end and that would save us from that though I worry about our guys to the East of us. I know most of you do not want this either, Good luck to all and especially property owners here.
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Same here, the rain is enough for me! More worried about my daughter at Statesboro than I am here. Track verification should interesting to say the least,
 
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