Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[tractor girl]

There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)

 

[GaWx]

There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)

I don’t think he/she means that. I think he/she means landfall strength. Cat 3 anywhere near that far inland? No way. Also the case for cat 2 I’d think.

 

[BufordWX]

WPC forecast upping rainfall totals. For North Georgia I would expect FFC will issue a flood watch either later this afternoon or tomorrow morning and probably going into effect starting tomorrow evening based off the current model data.

 

[Brent]

I don’t think he/she means that. I think he/she means landfall strength. Cat 3 anywhere near that far inland? No way. Also the case for cat 2 I’d think.

Yeah there's no way this will be a significant hurricane still in Atlanta but widespread 60-70 mph winds for a few hours are gonna cause a lot of issues. I don't think people realize how bad even those winds can be. That will put down hundreds of trees in Atlanta. That's pretty much what Opal was. I think that's pretty much the assumption of what happens here barring something really crazy. It's gonna be hard to get at least widespread winds stronger than that that far inland

 

[Makeitsnow]

There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)

I was referring to landfall strength. Obviously there will be significant weakening of sustained surface winds after landfall..but across the board the models are showing high boundary layer winds..indeed they aren't showing much weakening at all until the mountains. Which means high gust potential.

 

[Shawn]

The winds will be felt well outside the center of the storm. A Cat 4 or 5 (unlikely) hitting FL would destroy ATL, and a lot of others with wind due to the forward speed and size.

 

[Brent]

The winds will be felt well outside the center of the storm. A Cat 4 or 5 (unlikely) hitting FL would destroy ATL, and a lot of others with wind due to the forward speed and size.

I mean yeah if this turns into Michael then the storyline may change but well it's naked right now and sheared... Until the storyline changes we need to take a deep breath

 

[ILMRoss]

i would think because of the trough it's getting absorbed into, there's going to be a slight baroclinic element that will preserve low pressures well inland

 

[Shawn]

i would think because of the trough it's getting absorbed into, there's going to be a slight baroclinic element that will preserve low pressures well inland

Thank you. Anyone hoping this thing reaches major status and stronger is bat-**** nsane

 

[severestorm]

Shear has weakened since last night

 

[ILMRoss]

Thank you. Anyone hoping this thing reaches major status and stronger is bat-**** nsane

Cat 2 in atlanta is a pipe dream and probably physically impossible. I hope nobody is hoping that. however i'm still pretty bullish on the strenght; and if it continues to get its ducks in a row with the structure and establishing a cdo this will make a run at a 4

 

[chase5ash]

Looking at the visible satellite loop currently, it seems that the exposed center is ever so slowly getting some convection surrounding it. Also looks to be moving back to the NW to NNW as opposed to its ejection earlier today.

 

[Shawn]

anxiously watching this new convective burst and the potential lightning storm about to start


Edit. Lightning already starting on the SE of circulation:

 

[Drscottsmith]

There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)

I have an anemometer printout from Hugo from 34.233244, -80.659689 with 4 wind gusts >110mph (off the scale of the meter).
That coordinate is in Lugoff, SC about 122 miles from McClellanville, SC where Hugo made landfall.

 

[GaWx]

I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet.

 

[Brick Tamland]

She's gonna be a big one.

A quote from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center.

“Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane size at similar latitudes.

Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side.

In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”

 

[jrips27]

18z 3K NAM rain totals. This is all BEFORE the system makes landfall so this is solely from the PRE

Models are locking in on a significant rainfall event in North Georgia

 

[Chazwin]

I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet.

I would expect that with the overall size of the storm that’s expected and the fast forward speed, there could be an exceptionally higher risk for tornadoes in the right front quadrant

 

[Snowfan]

 

[ForsythSnow]

18z 3K NAM rain totals. This is all BEFORE the system makes landfall so this is solely from the PRE

Models are locking in on a significant rainfall event in North Georgia View attachment 151651

Not sure I'd it's just me but I think this plus Helene is going to rival 2009's flooding if the totals truly reach those levels.