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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

Stormsfury said:
Have a feeling it'll rotate back around. The overall circulation envelope is massive. Seeing multiple small Eddies just whipping around her right now.
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I took a closer look at this and sped the satellite up and I'm now pretty sure this is not just a little eddy but the main llc. Currently some convection going up right on the center
 
12Z UKMET: E shift and a bit stronger vs 0Z bringing it into Apalachee Bay (instead of near Apalachicola) Thu night; goes to a little E of ATL vs near ATL on 0Z

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2024 0 19.5N 83.5W 1003 37
0000UTC 25.09.2024 12 20.0N 85.3W 998 37
1200UTC 25.09.2024 24 21.1N 86.0W 993 40
0000UTC 26.09.2024 36 22.5N 86.3W 989 40
1200UTC 26.09.2024 48 24.7N 85.5W 987 48
0000UTC 27.09.2024 60 28.4N 84.4W 983 51
1200UTC 27.09.2024 72 33.3N 83.3W 986 41
0000UTC 28.09.2024 84 38.1N 84.1W 995 31
1200UTC 28.09.2024 96 37.5N 90.7W 1000 17
0000UTC 29.09.2024 108 36.4N 91.4W 1003 13
1200UTC 29.09.2024 120 35.3N 92.4W 1007 12
0000UTC 30.09.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING
 
ILMRoss said:
I took a closer look at this and sped the satellite up and I'm now pretty sure this is not just a little eddy but the main llc. Currently some convection going up right on the center
Click to expand...
What was also wild, the 06z HWRF did a small cyclonic loop early in that particular run. It's crazy how messy Helene's evolution has become .
 
Stormsfury said:
What was also wild, the 06z HWRF did a small cyclonic loop early in that particular run. It's crazy how messy Helene's evolution has become .
Click to expand...
this is a drum webb was beating but john likely messed with the guidance a lot. surprise! here is a major landfalling in mexico. the unexpected burst in outflow likely threw the regime off some in the wcar
 
GaWx said:
12Z UKMET: E shift and a bit stronger vs 0Z bringing it into Apalachee Bay (instead of near Apalachicola) Thu night; goes to a little E of ATL vs near ATL on 0Z

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.5N 83.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2024 0 19.5N 83.5W 1003 37
0000UTC 25.09.2024 12 20.0N 85.3W 998 37
1200UTC 25.09.2024 24 21.1N 86.0W 993 40
0000UTC 26.09.2024 36 22.5N 86.3W 989 40
1200UTC 26.09.2024 48 24.7N 85.5W 987 48
0000UTC 27.09.2024 60 28.4N 84.4W 983 51
1200UTC 27.09.2024 72 33.3N 83.3W 986 41
0000UTC 28.09.2024 84 38.1N 84.1W 995 31
1200UTC 28.09.2024 96 37.5N 90.7W 1000 17
0000UTC 29.09.2024 108 36.4N 91.4W 1003 13
1200UTC 29.09.2024 120 35.3N 92.4W 1007 12
0000UTC 30.09.2024 132 CEASED TRACKING
Click to expand...
Looking on Pivitol, 12z UKMET also shows a tremendous amount of rain across North GA. Seems like many of the models are uping rainfall totals across the state.7C324118-6B8B-40C7-A629-26DB814B1D61.gif
 
ILMRoss said:
this is a drum webb was beating but john likely messed with the guidance a lot. surprise! here is a major landfalling in mexico. the unexpected burst in outflow likely threw the regime off some in the wcar
Click to expand...
John's emergence has been something else like what Otis did recently in the same region. Definitely helped an upper low over the Yucatan disrupt Helene's initiation. Now we have the possibility of Helene visiting the NE tip of the Yucatan to boot on the 12z hurricane models.

Question after is will the strong upper different pattern help Helene in the Eastern GOM?
 
Arcc said:
Those HAFS models need to be trashed. A 150kt Cat 5 to not even a hurricane in one run.
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I think they're struggling to figure out what to do with the center. With 2 or 3 possible locations out there, hard to pinpoint. I think they will do better in 24 hours after she's started getting her actual act together. She's just rehearsing right now.
 
Shawn said:
I think they're struggling to figure out what to do with the center. With 2 or 3 possible locations out there, hard to pinpoint. I think they will do better in 24 hours after she's started getting her actual act together. She's just rehearsing right now.
Click to expand...
i think there's only one center for now, i don't think the naked swirl would be as prominent if there were multiple. however, i am unsure if any model is incorporating the orbit the llc made around the full gyre- it was shooting SW this morning and now it is stationary. it will be useful to compare where the LLC is at 2 (18z) compared to where most models have it at that time
 
Shawn said:
I think they're struggling to figure out what to do with the center. With 2 or 3 possible locations out there, hard to pinpoint. I think they will do better in 24 hours after she's started getting her actual act together. She's just rehearsing right now.
Click to expand...

This is probably true, that said the HWRF and HMON have never had this problem. The HAFS models have also been wonky with pressure vs reflectivity/wind field as well.
 
lightning field, and are we seeing a more clearly defined center:

2XhsLfU.gif
 
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