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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Stevo24 said:
This seems like some major bust potential one way or another
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Obviously they are the experts on this and they do a great job. That said it is suprising to see all of the globals in such agreement within 36 hours and it seeming like the NHC is pretty much dismissing them. I always say it’s hard to bet against the EURO, so we will see if that holds true here.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
At 00Z, the NHC track lies on the western edge. Regardless, this suite is still through western Ga.
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And it inches closer… Not gonna change much for here, but seeing that low pressure would be pretty cool.

Obviously the NHC is leaning on the models above and the Canadian Ensembles.

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Currently sitting at 3.67 inches back home. In St. Thomas right now and wondering if we will be able to get back to Atlanta tomorrow evening. It has been calm seas the whole time we have been here since last Friday. Today was the first day of choppy rough seas and windy conditions. The ocean water is definitely like bathtub water. Praying for the best for everyone.
 
Downeastnc said:
Latest 00z intensity guidence down a lot barely any cat 3's

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Probably one of the reasons is the size. I wondered earlier if the dry air entrainment into the core would form a large eye and looking at IR, that is probably what is happening. Wont make it impossible to go nuts, but definitely harder. While it may spare the coast, the wind field is gonna grow even more.

Edit: Would also make it harder for dry air to penetrate in the future as well.
 
Arcc said:
Probably one of the reasons is the size. I wondered earlier if the dry air entrainment into the core would form a large eye and looking at IR, that is probably what is happening. Wont make it impossible to go nuts, but definitely harder. While it may spare the coast, the wind field is gonna grow even more.

Edit: Would also make it harder for dry air to penetrate in the future as well.
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Yeah that plus it's going to be coming ashore in roughly 24 hrs just doesn't give it time...if it can somehow form a smaller core then maybe it can really bomb out but as it stands it's just to big to spin up fast...the upside is chances of 75 plus winds deep inland go down but like you said the overall area of 50-75 is going to be huge especially on the east side.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We’re kind of in that range where @Rain Cold tells us to cut modeled wind gusts and rain totals in half but I don’t see him doing that yet. Paging @Rain Cold we need you like we haven’t needed you in a long time
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Slash 'em.

I guess we'll have to see how strong it actually is able to get prior to landfall. I'm thinking Cat 2 maybe Cat 3. Inland up to ATL will be gusty. Im not sold on 80+ mph gusts all the way up there, though. I suppose some spots in western SC could gust info the 50s or 60s, but I wouldn't count on the scary wind maps being right.
 
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Has anyone seen any eye temperature reading from recon recently? I see a 27.4 C at the surface, but with 53 kt winds, so that wasn't even the eye.
 
FWIW and I know it is the NAM but it does have it slower and more east and somewhat stronger at 21hr. IE 948mb vs. 954mb last run. I wouldnt look at the strength as much as location and timing with the NAM but it is within 24hrs so its probably more accurate at this time verses a few days ago with the bullish sub 900mb runs. It also did initilize as a 974mb so about what we currently see.

Edit: tad east, slower, and does show some weakening upon approach
 
SnowwxAtl said:
What makes you say or think that man?
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Carry on, the thread is low-fill right now because the wise are preparing. Don’t get distracted.
From my years on these forums there is an eerie quiet that develops before actual threats, when the members are not posting every few minutes because it’s real enough to need to do something about it in real life. I do feel that is one of these times. (Not saying scope or dangerousness of impact, just that this isn’t just a non-event, clearly).
 
ontherocks said:
Carry on, the thread is low-fill right now because the wise are preparing. Don’t get distracted.
From my years on these forums there is an eerie quiet that develops before actual threats, when the members are not posting every few minutes because it’s real enough to need to do something about it in real life. I do feel that is one of these times. (Not saying scope or dangerousness of impact, just that this isn’t just a non-event, clearly).
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Gotcha...thank you. Was really interested in there logic but I guess it's not one 😂😂😂
 
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