thanksgivingbrown
Member
I don’t see anything official yet
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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
weatherboyy
Member
Should be about 10:00 or 11:00
Brent
Member
tractor girl
Member
Not seeing it hoss
tractor girl
Member
latest air recon, looking good
Good morning guys. We have a busy next 48-72 hours coming up. I wanted to list what I see in the key differences between the Euro and GFS.:
- Trough Strength: The GFS shows a deeper, stronger trough, potentially pulling the storm northward more quickly, whereas the ECMWF indicates a slightly weaker trough, which might slow the storm's northward progress.
- Ridge Influence: The ECMWF ridge appears stronger and more influential, possibly guiding the storm more directly into the Gulf of Mexico and limiting any eastward turn.
- Storm Position and Intensity: The GFS indicates a stronger storm system located slightly more eastward, while the ECMWF shows a slightly weaker storm located more westward.
Henry2326
Member
SnowwxAtl
Member
Just about the same as 06z no major difference
it looks fine enough but that llc is still murky to me and pressures will only gradually drop until there's some more definition.
Might help if you elaborate on that recon data, some on here aren't going to understand it, heck I could use a refresher myself from time to time. Where'd you find it and what they indicate, might help others understand why this will most likely be Helene at next update
weatherboyy
Member
I think the center may be elongated or really broad and it's making the visible satellite look meh unless there's a vigorous center tucked under that new convective blob
Henry2326
Member
All 4 hurricane models are on the far east side of the track.
DustinWx
Moderator
Hurricane watches have been issued
RoddyPiper
Member
Really need that Atlantic ridge to relax and allow this thing to cross FL at the Big Bend and up through the Mid Atlantic states....selfishly hoping for a decent weekend of weather.
In all honesty, I think that will be the major influencer. If the ridge relaxes, off she goes to the northeast. If it doesn't, it will move north through the eastern panhandle, then get caught in the Fujiwhara effect with the ULL in MS and bend hard back NW.
In all honesty, I think that will be the major influencer. If the ridge relaxes, off she goes to the northeast. If it doesn't, it will move north through the eastern panhandle, then get caught in the Fujiwhara effect with the ULL in MS and bend hard back NW.
12z high res models keying in on a pretty solid wave a rain developing across the vicinity of North GA as early as tomorrow afternoon. Looks like a combination of the ULL lingering to the west and a developing PRE event as the tropical moisture gets pulled in. These are valid through 2:00 AM Thursday Morning. Someone might end up with a few inches of rain long before the main storm arrives.
Brent
Member
TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY
Henry2326
Member
Finally someone is saying it out loud.
"The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future."
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future."