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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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GaWx said:
It isn’t finished, but the 12Z Icon is well E of its prior runs with it missing the Yucatan to the E for the first time.
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Looks like it’s gonna be a interesting track for this storm. Is definitely gonna come NW hard after landfall.

ICON should landfall close to the GFS.
 
Arcc said:
Looks like it’s gonna be a interesting track for this storm. Is definitely gonna come NW hard after landfall.

ICON should landfall close to the GFS.
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The 12Z Icon is much quicker than its prior runs and is now much closer to the timing of the consensus. Although much further E early, this much quicker movement allows it to be captured by the cutoff H5 low and it then moves N to near Panama City at 984 mb late Thu night followed by a NNW move through AL.
 
Regardless of the eventual track, the storm will move inland at a good clip.

The good news is that excessive rainfall should be limited.
The bad news is that the storm will reach the latitude of Atlanta within 12 hours post-landfall and will be baroclinically enhanced. High winds far inland are a real concern if the storm reaches the coast as an intense hurricane.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Regardless of the eventual track, the storm will move inland at a good clip.

The good news is that excessive rainfall should be limited.
The bad news is that the storm will reach the latitude of Atlanta within 12 hours post-landfall and will be baroclinically enhanced. High winds far inland are a real concern if the storm reaches the coast as an intense hurricane.
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Just to echo this point here’s the GFS wind gusts from 6z. You can probably cut 20-30% off these numbers but even that would still cause power outages up thru AtlantaIMG_0213.png
 
12z GFS is already at 995mb by Tuesday morning IMG_0214.png
 
jrips27 said:
Just to echo this point here’s the GFS wind gusts from 6z. You can probably cut 20-30% off these numbers but even that would still cause power outages up thru AtlantaView attachment 151432
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Yep, and that's assuming a +- 975 Mb landfalling marginal Cat 2. The ceiling is higher and is concerning.
 
jrips27 said:
Just to echo this point here’s the GFS wind gusts from 6z. You can probably cut 20-30% off these numbers but even that would still cause power outages up thru AtlantaView attachment 151432
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In my experience to really push big wind well inland the system has to have a large well-developed wind field, typically you see these on systems that have undergone a few ERC's and had time to expand and form that strong CDO . Forward speed also plays a huge role obviously if the center comes in moving north at 25 miles a hr everyone gets peak conditions for a shorter time frame but it can carry those winds further inland.
 
Not sure on the difference in pressure between TropicalTidbits and WxBell. Either way that’s a catastrophic hit if it were to happen
 
jrips27 said:
Not sure on the difference in pressure between TropicalTidbits and WxBell. Either way that’s a catastrophic hit if it were to happen
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jrips27 said:
Not sure on the difference in pressure between TropicalTidbits and WxBell. Either way that’s a catastrophic hit if it were to happen
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I think it's because I'm zoomed in on the SE. I would think Cat 4 at landfall is the upper limit and unlikely, but still.
 
Looks to be a hot spot from Pensacola to Apalachicola. Although, If models weakens some and doesn’t have this in the 930s mb then I can see some west shift towards Mobile as well. Gonna be a close call.
 
accu35 said:
Looks to be a hot spot from Pensacola to Apalachicola. Although, If models weakens some and doesn’t have this in the 930s mb then I can see some west shift towards Mobile as well. Gonna be a close call.
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Fortunately Icon, CMC, and UKMET are much weaker though UKMET often is too weak this far out.

12Z UKMET: ~12 hours earlier landfall (Thu night) than and ~75 miles W of 0Z pretty close to Apalachicola at ~987 mb vs ~993 mb on 0Z:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.9N 85.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2024 48 18.0N 86.0W 1003 29
0000UTC 25.09.2024 60 18.2N 85.5W 1002 30
1200UTC 25.09.2024 72 20.3N 86.2W 998 40
0000UTC 26.09.2024 84 21.7N 86.2W 995 39
1200UTC 26.09.2024 96 24.0N 86.0W 992 44
0000UTC 27.09.2024 108 27.4N 85.1W 989 56
1200UTC 27.09.2024 120 31.3N 84.7W 987 39
0000UTC 28.09.2024 132 36.4N 84.7W 992 21
1200UTC 28.09.2024 144 40.5N 87.2W 996 34
0000UTC 29.09.2024 156 42.3N 91.4W 1000 21
1200UTC 29.09.2024 168 39.0N 94.3W 1004 13
 
Downeastnc said:
In my experience to really push big wind well inland the system has to have a large well-developed wind field, typically you see these on systems that have undergone a few ERC's and had time to expand and form that strong CDO . Forward speed also plays a huge role obviously if the center comes in moving north at 25 miles a hr everyone gets peak conditions for a shorter time frame but it can carry those winds further inland.
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Forward speed, size of the wind field are important. The thing to look at here though is the potential of the storm merging into the jet stream, which would help to enhance it well inland
 
Stevo24 said:
I need less of that NW turn. Usually it goes East and I’m on the NW edge and get little rain. This time I might end up on the NE edge. I need some rain.
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I really think with the trough interaction plus a strong upslope flow to the east of the track, there would be higher rain totals for a lot of the western Carolinas than what the GFS depicts
 
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