Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[lexxnchloe]

ICON is much slower but is likely a major at landfall. Some huge changes at 500mb as early as 72 hours View attachment 151411

943mb landfall. Maybe low end cat4

 

[Brent]

Big Bend of Florida becoming a hotspot

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS a little stronger than 18z so far

 

[jrips27]

Woof already 960mb

 

[lexxnchloe]

Woof already 960mbView attachment 151415

Its a little more NE and 10 mb stronger than 18Z

 

[Brent]

 

[GaWx]

That GFS run is a bit too close to Tampa

The GFS like the Icon would likely be quite damaging well inland and probably all the way to my area and beyond. But as long as lexx gets the damaging storm she wants it is all good I suppose.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: significantly stronger at landfall (likely sub 992 vs 1000 on 12Z run) and 150 miles east of 12Z with a landfall late afternoon Friday in the FL Big Bend moving NNE; thankfully not nearly as strong as Icon/GFS but UK is notorious for being conservatively weak this far out, especially with winds but also with SLP, and the stronger trend is worrying:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.6N 85.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2024 84 18.6N 85.7W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.09.2024 96 21.3N 85.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 26.09.2024 108 22.5N 85.8W 998 42
0000UTC 27.09.2024 120 25.0N 84.6W 995 40
1200UTC 27.09.2024 132 27.2N 84.3W 992 42
0000UTC 28.09.2024 144 31.1N 83.0W 995 41
1200UTC 28.09.2024 156 36.3N 82.7W 1000 23
0000UTC 29.09.2024 168 39.6N 82.7W 1005 27

 

[GaWx]

Even though the Icon and GFS have similar landfall locations/strengths, the GFS landfall is a whopping 60 hours earlier (Thu evening) vs Icon (Sun morning).

 

[jrips27]

Even though the Icon and GFS have similar landfall locations/strengths, the GFS landfall is a whopping 60 hours earlier (Thu evening) vs Icon (Sun morning).

Yeah there are some crazy timing differences between models

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS is still another pretty ominous run for Pensacola to Tampa and inland NE from there. Fortunately most members are much weaker than the operational but this is still not a good sign.

 

[jrips27]

Euro is quicker and into Apalachicola on Thursday night

 

[J.C.]

Euro is quicker and into Apalachicola on Thursday nightView attachment 151418

Can you post the precip map when it is ready please?

 

[GaWx]

Euro is quicker and into Apalachicola on Thursday nightView attachment 151418

The 0Z Euro’s 989 at landfall is similar to the strength of UKMET/CMC and much weaker than the Icon/GFS MH with landfall Thu night (much closer to GFS’ Thu evening and UK’s Fri afternoon) than Icon’s Sun morning

 

[GaWx]

0Z EPS: follows the faster and further E 0Z Euro but it is like the Euro still NW of the GFS suite with tracks centered on Apalachicola that then go N near the GA/AL line before curling back NNW. It is similar to the GEPS.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[NoSnowATL]

So it’s big bend or Pensacola..

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 151420

Looks to be the eastern outlier as the rest of the 0Z suite came in and now 6Z

 

[jrips27]

Can you post the precip map when it is ready please?

My fault I cashed out after posting that last night

 

[HugeSnowStick]

My fault I cashed out after posting that last night

View attachment 151421

Is their some kind of curse over Atlanta?