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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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The 18Z Icon is well E of the 12Z with landfall back down to the middle of the Big Bend (987) followed by a NNE track. So, this shows plenty of uncertainty remains as one would expect, especially with no storm yet.
 
947 Apalachicola late Thu afternoon. TT SLP may be slightly lower, but even its own H5/SLP and precip/SLP don’t agree. For some reason, its H5/SLP is lower than precip/SLP map.
 
From FFC disco this afternoon:

“Ensemble guidance continues to indicate an area of low pressure
forming over the Yucatan Peninsula before moving into the
western/central Gulf of Mexico. NHC is now carrying an 80% chance
for tropical development over the next 7 days. Current EPS and GEFS
ensemble forecast tracks are indicating that anywhere from the
Louisiana/MS coast line to Florida for any potential landfall at
this time although models are beginning to come together better.
Would like to see another run or two of consensus before
certainty increases on our end. Another factor coming into play
is how this troughing plays out over the eastern CONUS and how it
will help steer the system. Current rainfall totals have gone up
to around 3- 4" over the weekend but again with the uncertainty
this is highly subject to change. More information should come
together over the next couple of days although uncertainty still
remains.”
 
GaWx said:
18Z GEFS mean: even further west (near Pensacola), which is 50 miles W of 12Z mean and then the mean is N into AL
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That is pretty consistent at this range is it not?
 
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. Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for development of this disturbance, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves northward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless
of development, this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rains
over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to move generally
northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

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Gulf SSTs: ~86 where disturbance is now (not on this map); warms to ~88 as it moves NW to near Yucatan and then only gradually cools back to 86 and then cools only to ~84 just offshore the N Gulf coast. Not good news if you don’t want the potential for a very strong storm:

IMG_0291.png
 
GaWx said:
Gulf SSTs: ~86 where disturbance is now (not on this map); warms to ~88 as it moves NW to near Yucatan and then only gradually cools back to 86 and then cools only to ~84 just offshore the N Gulf coast. Not good news if you don’t want the potential for a very strong storm:

View attachment 151463
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Don't hurricanes usually weaken when they get to the Northern Gulf this time of year ? I know Opal weakened pretty substantially before landfall.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Don't hurricanes usually weaken when they get to the Northern Gulf this time of year ? I know Opal weakened pretty substantially before landfall.
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In the past yes, but in the last ten years, no. Michael, Laura, Ida and Ian were either strengthening or staying steady at landfall.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Don't hurricanes usually weaken when they get to the Northern Gulf this time of year ? I know Opal weakened pretty substantially before landfall.
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It varies depending on things like shear, dry air, and SSTs. But SSTs are AN/84 near the coast, not cool enough for much, if any, weakening. Models are currently hardly weakening it at all til landfall.
 
GaWx said:
It varies depending on things like shear, dry air, and SSTs. But SSTs are AN/84 near the coast, not cool enough for much, if any, weakening. Models are currently hardly weakening it at all til landfall.
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And there has been so little disruption for so long to mix the water. Nothing but a giant ridge heating the gulf for months now.
 
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