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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Chazwin said:
That does seem a bit odd looking. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a gulf storm turn back to the west that sharply once inland.
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Didn't that last one swing all the way back to Arkansas before dissipating?
 
Brent said:
IF that upper low is in the right spot it would turn NW View attachment 151467
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Yes. This is the pattern that is bad.for the east coast when the ULL is over Georgia and the cane off the east coast. It pulls it into the coast. In this case the pattern is setup.perfect fo that scenario just further west.
 
Shaggy said:
Yes. This is the pattern that is bad.for the east coast when the ULL is over Georgia and the cane off the east coast. It pulls it into the coast. In this case the pattern is setup.perfect fo that scenario just further west.
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Yes I believe that's how Hugo hit SC when most of the other ones usually ride more up the coast
 
J.C. said:
Didn't that last one swing all the way back to Arkansas before dissipating?
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Big difference with that one was it coming in further west and it moved NW toward Arkansas which isn’t unheard of. I was referring more to how the models are showing that almost due west movement once the center is over the Tennessee Valley. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that
 
GaWx said:
The upper low is well to the east of prior runs. Landfall 975 mb just N of Tampa Thu afternoon!
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You’re absolutely right. ULL is a full state further east
 
Looks like the GFS will be east of 18z if I had to guess. Not sure how much. The ULL is further east through 60
 
It seems like a straight shot north once it hits the gulf up until landfall. Wonder how far west it goes through the channel before turning will make a big difference from BB to Pensacola
 
0Z UKMET vs 12Z is perhaps slightly E/2 mb stronger (985) with landfall near Apalachicola late Thu evening and then to Atlanta midday Fri:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.8N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2024 24 18.8N 83.0W 1002 32
1200UTC 24.09.2024 36 18.9N 84.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 25.09.2024 48 19.7N 85.1W 999 38
1200UTC 25.09.2024 60 21.6N 86.2W 996 41
0000UTC 26.09.2024 72 23.4N 86.3W 992 44
1200UTC 26.09.2024 84 25.9N 85.3W 988 52
0000UTC 27.09.2024 96 29.2N 84.8W 985 46
1200UTC 27.09.2024 108 33.1N 84.1W 990 32
0000UTC 28.09.2024 120 36.7N 85.4W 998 19
1200UTC 28.09.2024 132 39.2N 87.9W 1003 24
0000UTC 29.09.2024 144 39.8N 92.2W 1007 13
1200UTC 29.09.2024 156 CEASED T
 
0Z GEFS, with upper low being 250 miles E of 18Z, has its mean storm landfall 175 miles E of the 18Z’s Pensacola or just E of Apalachicola. The mean then instead of going NNW through AL travels N into SW GA. So, more/fewer members than last run in GA/AL although AL still has a decent # of members.
 
Unlike GFS/Icon, the 0Z Euro doesn’t appear to be shifting E….at least so far vs the 18Z. Upper low not shifted E like on those. Landfall Apalachicola late Thu afternoon at 982. It goes near AL/GA line (W of ATL) vs though ATL on 12Z. So, some W shift.
 
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Kinda wild to think we may be dealing with a major hurricane making landfall in 3.5 days. Hope people can get prepared if that comes to fruition. Goodnight all! Gonna be hurting at work tomorrow after staying up this late lol

Red alert at 2AM. 70/90 odds
IMG_0240.jpeg
 
There’s a lot of talk on storm2k regarding shear late in the period, in the northern gulf.

Haven’t we seen in other cases where shear helps tighten up or even strengthen certain hurricanes as they near the coast? (Michael maybe)
 
DustinWx said:
There’s a lot of talk on storm2k regarding shear late in the period, in the northern gulf.

Haven’t we seen in other cases where shear helps tighten up or even strengthen certain hurricanes as they near the coast? (Michael maybe)
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Depends on the orientation of the shear and the direction of the storm movement.
 
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Also from Mike's Weather Page facebook

Wednesday feeder bands possible into Florida. Tornado Warnings likely for the peninsula even if it goes north. And then after landfall northward serious impacts remain. Michael had CAT 3 winds into GA/AL. This will be moving fast giving less time to weaken northward. Even if it goes NW after landfall could still some wide reaching impacts towards the east coast.
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Hurricane Hunters are heading in today. Steering currents are solid. High pressure to the east looks to kick it west after landfall.
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