Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[Ron Burgundy]

 

[accu35]

Looks to be a hot spot from Pensacola to Apalachicola. Although, If models weakens some and doesn’t have this in the 930s mb then I can see some west shift towards Mobile as well. Gonna be a close call.

 

[Brent]

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Definitely the upside scenario that you'd be afraid of with a system originating from the CAG in this run by the GFS.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

View attachment 151441

Atl is crushed,,,Jesus.

 

[GaWx]

Looks to be a hot spot from Pensacola to Apalachicola. Although, If models weakens some and doesn’t have this in the 930s mb then I can see some west shift towards Mobile as well. Gonna be a close call.

Fortunately Icon, CMC, and UKMET are much weaker though UKMET often is too weak this far out.

12Z UKMET: ~12 hours earlier landfall (Thu night) than and ~75 miles W of 0Z pretty close to Apalachicola at ~987 mb vs ~993 mb on 0Z:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 17.9N 85.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2024 48 18.0N 86.0W 1003 29
0000UTC 25.09.2024 60 18.2N 85.5W 1002 30
1200UTC 25.09.2024 72 20.3N 86.2W 998 40
0000UTC 26.09.2024 84 21.7N 86.2W 995 39
1200UTC 26.09.2024 96 24.0N 86.0W 992 44
0000UTC 27.09.2024 108 27.4N 85.1W 989 56
1200UTC 27.09.2024 120 31.3N 84.7W 987 39
0000UTC 28.09.2024 132 36.4N 84.7W 992 21
1200UTC 28.09.2024 144 40.5N 87.2W 996 34
0000UTC 29.09.2024 156 42.3N 91.4W 1000 21
1200UTC 29.09.2024 168 39.0N 94.3W 1004 13

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[jrips27]

Atl is crushed,,,Jesus.

Interesting that the wind gusts are pretty comparable to 6z. I think cause it takes longer to get inland and has more time to weaken

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Atl is crushed,,,Jesus.

Shades of Opal if that were to verify

 

[RollTide18]

GFS looks like Michael 2.0

 

[GaWx]

12Z GFS also resembles a slower and slightly stronger version of Eloise of the Niña of 1975: (Eloise was a few days earlier in Sept)

 

[jrips27]

12z Canadian is Apalachicola and then over Atlanta and bending NW to Nashville

Massive rainmaker

 

[Chazwin]

In my experience to really push big wind well inland the system has to have a large well-developed wind field, typically you see these on systems that have undergone a few ERC's and had time to expand and form that strong CDO . Forward speed also plays a huge role obviously if the center comes in moving north at 25 miles a hr everyone gets peak conditions for a shorter time frame but it can carry those winds further inland.

Forward speed, size of the wind field are important. The thing to look at here though is the potential of the storm merging into the jet stream, which would help to enhance it well inland

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

12z Canadian is Apalachicola and then over Atlanta and bending NW to Nashville

Massive rainmaker
View attachment 151446View attachment 151447

With that much rain, I assume it would be moving extremely slow ?

 

[Stevo24]

12z Canadian is Apalachicola and then over Atlanta and bending NW to Nashville

Massive rainmaker
View attachment 151446View attachment 151447

I need less of that NW turn. Usually it goes East and I’m on the NW edge and get little rain. This time I might end up on the NE edge. I need some rain.

 

[GaWx]

With that much rain, I assume it would be moving extremely slow ?

No, the 12Z CMC’s storm is actually moving very quickly!

 

[jrips27]

With that much rain, I assume it would be moving extremely slow ?

There’s a big swath of rain ahead of the main core of the system. I’m guessing from interaction with the trough

 

[Chazwin]

I need less of that NW turn. Usually it goes East and I’m on the NW edge and get little rain. This time I might end up on the NE edge. I need some rain.

I really think with the trough interaction plus a strong upslope flow to the east of the track, there would be higher rain totals for a lot of the western Carolinas than what the GFS depicts

 

[HugeSnowStick]

12z Canadian is Apalachicola and then over Atlanta and bending NW to Nashville

Massive rainmaker
View attachment 151446View attachment 151447

That makes no sense at all.

 

[GaWx]

GEFS: 12Z mean has a significant shift NW vs prior runs with many more going through AL vs earlier runs