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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Drizzle Snizzle said:
Not enough time to get to a cat 5 I don’t think
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Michael and Ian are the only thing making me not agree. It really depends on storm structure and how fast it organizes. Modeling indicates it's a hurricane when it reaches the gulf, so if it isn't, it'll be weaker than a 4 .
 
Looks like that ULL is anchoring down over Texarkana....meanwhile, Helene is going to stop by & see if she can get on @ Augusta National on hr 93
 
ForsythSnow said:
If I'm taking a guess, it'll be further west this run since the ULL and storm will begin pivoting sooner. Already a touch west prior than 6Z.

As of 84 it's already on land but still 30 or so miles NW.
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I thought it would have too. There was a little more separation between the ULL and the storm allowing the NNE movement to continue on this run.
 
12z UKMET: similar to 0Z with landfall just E of Apalachicola ~midnight Thu night moving NNE into S GA then curls back NNW into N GA just S of Atlanta

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 82.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2024 0 16.7N 82.2W 1006 25
0000UTC 24.09.2024 12 18.6N 82.2W 1004 33
1200UTC 24.09.2024 24 18.6N 84.6W 1003 34
0000UTC 25.09.2024 36 19.1N 84.6W 1000 38
1200UTC 25.09.2024 48 20.6N 85.1W 997 46
0000UTC 26.09.2024 60 22.8N 85.4W 992 46
1200UTC 26.09.2024 72 25.3N 85.5W 988 48
0000UTC 27.09.2024 84 28.5N 85.0W 984 53
1200UTC 27.09.2024 96 33.2N 83.9W 988 36
0000UTC 28.09.2024 108 38.1N 85.2W 996 33
1200UTC 28.09.2024 120 39.1N 91.0W 999 26
0000UTC 29.09.2024 132 39.0N 92.2W 1003 13
1200UTC 29.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING
 
I've always thought a decent projection, as far as placement, was to take the UKMET and the EURO from about 2 to 3 days out and determine the median between those two.
 
GFS is on its own with the Eastward projection but I'd assume that low rainfall spot is some kind of meteorological nonsense involving dry air intrusion from the upper level low but idk
 
jrips27 said:
Unsure if I’m looking at a hurricane intensity model or this secretly the NAM in disguise??? 903mb in 66 hours

View attachment 151514
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888 MB!
img_0248-png.151514
 
ForsythSnow said:
HAFS A stands for HAFS Apocalyptic. I have to question how valid this is or if we are actually about to see the strongest hurricane ever. I'm leaning the former where it's overdone.
View attachment 151515
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Might not get that strong, but I would not be surprised at all to see it blow up quickly. That's the way it's been with the Gulf storms the past few years.
 
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