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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and portions of Central America are associated with a
broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear
favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is likely to form during the next few days while
moving northward across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of
Mexico. Regardless of development, this disturbance is expected to
produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next
several days. Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the
progress of this feature. Later this week, the system is forecast to
move generally northward across the Gulf of Mexico, and interests
along the northern and northeastern Gulf Coast should also monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
 
Chazwin said:
Forward speed, size of the wind field are important. The thing to look at here though is the potential of the storm merging into the jet stream, which would help to enhance it well inland
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While correct, a lot are getting happy or sad and there is no Center of Circulation yet! Let it form before getting excited, depressed, whatever! Not directed at you but it’s getting ridiculous!
 
Stevo24 said:
It’s gonna be a lot less than 982
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I lean your way on the SLP at landfall but hopefully not/we’ll see.


12Z EPS: mean landfall Thu night near Apalachicola and then it moves N fairly close to GA/AL border; many either W half of lower GA or E half of lower AL; mean a bit E of 6Z, which was in E AL and perhaps very slightly E of 0Z
 
Brent said:
They only do them for big US threats. It's just for the models
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Likely has everything to do with the jet stream influence. Another model suite with agreement of such widespread impacts, and a major hurricane likely, getting the path and inland interactions down better is key. The way it's coming in at the speed it is too is concerning. This is under 5 days from landfall and is basically nothing yet in terms of designation.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Likely has everything to do with the jet stream influence. Another model suite with agreement of such widespread impacts, and a major hurricane likely, getting the path and inland interactions down better is key. The way it's coming in at the speed it is too is concerning. This is under 5 days from landfall and is basically nothing yet in terms of designation.
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I wonder if there's any chance that nothing develops at all ? Or is it pretty much a lock at this point ?
 
06Z GEFS with more members toward the Big Bend area and 12Z with more members in the Panhandle. Is the ULL having an influence or pull on this in the 12Z run?
IMG_9856.pngIMG_9857.png
 
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