lexxnchloe
Member
GFS setting up to be much stronger. Trof should scoot it right up the coast
GaWx will have a nice storm
GaWx will have a nice storm
Last edited:
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
AJ1013
Member
First time I've been looking at models since spring, could be an interesting week down here.
NHC HAS IT UP TO 70% NOW
Henry2326
Member
Circle didn't change.
JHS
Member
This is getting into closer range now and may very well happen. The track will change many more times of course, but if this run verified it's lights out for millions from GA and FLA up into the mid-Atlantic . This would be as bad as Hugo and over a larger area.
Last edited:
Snow_chaser
Member
Good chance if Atlanta and NW Georgia want rain, we need this around Gulf Shores/Orange Beach landfall. Seems like NW Georgia misses out on good rain when it’s Panama City or East, weather goes up 85 and East.
NoSnowATL
Member
JHS
Member
I do not think we need this at all, not at this strength. A track like Opal in 1995, but with Beryl in 1994's intensity would do just fine. Beryl dropped a lot of rain, but did not have very much wind with it except in the Fla panhandle.
lexxnchloe
Member
lexxnchloe
Member
LC'S latest. He also talks about storm 2 that i posted about in the tropical thread.
There have been tropical cyclone impacts on the USA this eason, but mostly lower strength systems with localized damage (like Beryl on July 7-8). But there is some unease with the current pattern, with tropical disturbances posing a threat to the central/eastern Gulf Coast and eventually the Eastern Seaboard and Appalachia.
Note the two impulses in the Caribbean Sea. All of the numerical models show these systems as a threat for enhanced tropical cyclone development. The first feature will likely move through Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula, then on into the central Gulf of Mexico. The descent of an upper level low through the Ozark Plateau implies that this possible Helene will recurve to the northeast, making landfall as a hurricane near Pensacola FL around the morning of September 27. The moisture fetch to the right of the 500MB low (south central Arkansas) will interact with a frontal structure that sets up from northern Mississippi into Maryland. This is the reason why more emphasis is placed on flooding rain potential by next weekend in Dixie, the Appalachian Mountains, and the Mid-Atlantic region.
But another problem presents itself with the second disturbance, which will follow the path of its predecessor, perhaps slightly to the left. Since the shearing wind profile of the aforementioned upper air disturbance will weaken, the incoming disturbance may be deeper in terms of pressure and therefore a producer of stronger wind velocities in the Gulf of Mexico. The time frame for approach and landfall for the enwer feature is about October 1-2.
Stay tuned.
There have been tropical cyclone impacts on the USA this eason, but mostly lower strength systems with localized damage (like Beryl on July 7-8). But there is some unease with the current pattern, with tropical disturbances posing a threat to the central/eastern Gulf Coast and eventually the Eastern Seaboard and Appalachia.
Note the two impulses in the Caribbean Sea. All of the numerical models show these systems as a threat for enhanced tropical cyclone development. The first feature will likely move through Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula, then on into the central Gulf of Mexico. The descent of an upper level low through the Ozark Plateau implies that this possible Helene will recurve to the northeast, making landfall as a hurricane near Pensacola FL around the morning of September 27. The moisture fetch to the right of the 500MB low (south central Arkansas) will interact with a frontal structure that sets up from northern Mississippi into Maryland. This is the reason why more emphasis is placed on flooding rain potential by next weekend in Dixie, the Appalachian Mountains, and the Mid-Atlantic region.
But another problem presents itself with the second disturbance, which will follow the path of its predecessor, perhaps slightly to the left. Since the shearing wind profile of the aforementioned upper air disturbance will weaken, the incoming disturbance may be deeper in terms of pressure and therefore a producer of stronger wind velocities in the Gulf of Mexico. The time frame for approach and landfall for the enwer feature is about October 1-2.
Stay tuned.
NoSnowATL
Member
Snow_chaser
Member
Thinking about grabbing some buddies and chasing this if it happens to hit Friday/Saturday somewhere in the Northern Gulf. Probably wouldn’t go if it’s higher than a Category 2, but have been wanting to experience a hurricane for awhile now.
Wouldn’t go super close to the coast and obviously would avoid any storm surge zones. Still just an idea but I’m considering it
Wouldn’t go super close to the coast and obviously would avoid any storm surge zones. Still just an idea but I’m considering it
lexxnchloe
Member
JHS
Member
That's true, but it did not have the widespread 60-80 mph gusts the 18z GFS has for many of us. Now back to Beryl it also spawned the strongest tornado Union County has seen in a long time, an F3 too, I think. Another one caused damage a little later in Cherokee county.
ICON is much slower but is likely a major at landfall. Some huge changes at 500mb as early as 72 hours 