Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[lexxnchloe]

ICON is much slower but is likely a major at landfall. Some huge changes at 500mb as early as 72 hours View attachment 151411

943mb landfall. Maybe low end cat4

 

[Brent]

Big Bend of Florida becoming a hotspot

 

[lexxnchloe]

GFS a little stronger than 18z so far

 

[jrips27]

Woof already 960mb

 

[lexxnchloe]

Woof already 960mbView attachment 151415

Its a little more NE and 10 mb stronger than 18Z

 

[Brent]

 

[GaWx]

That GFS run is a bit too close to Tampa

The GFS like the Icon would likely be quite damaging well inland and probably all the way to my area and beyond. But as long as lexx gets the damaging storm she wants it is all good I suppose.

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: significantly stronger at landfall (likely sub 992 vs 1000 on 12Z run) and 150 miles east of 12Z with a landfall late afternoon Friday in the FL Big Bend moving NNE; thankfully not nearly as strong as Icon/GFS but UK is notorious for being conservatively weak this far out, especially with winds but also with SLP, and the stronger trend is worrying:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 18.6N 85.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2024 84 18.6N 85.7W 1003 34
0000UTC 26.09.2024 96 21.3N 85.1W 1001 34
1200UTC 26.09.2024 108 22.5N 85.8W 998 42
0000UTC 27.09.2024 120 25.0N 84.6W 995 40
1200UTC 27.09.2024 132 27.2N 84.3W 992 42
0000UTC 28.09.2024 144 31.1N 83.0W 995 41
1200UTC 28.09.2024 156 36.3N 82.7W 1000 23
0000UTC 29.09.2024 168 39.6N 82.7W 1005 27

 

[GaWx]

Even though the Icon and GFS have similar landfall locations/strengths, the GFS landfall is a whopping 60 hours earlier (Thu evening) vs Icon (Sun morning).

 

[jrips27]

Even though the Icon and GFS have similar landfall locations/strengths, the GFS landfall is a whopping 60 hours earlier (Thu evening) vs Icon (Sun morning).

Yeah there are some crazy timing differences between models

 

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS is still another pretty ominous run for Pensacola to Tampa and inland NE from there. Fortunately most members are much weaker than the operational but this is still not a good sign.

 

[jrips27]

Euro is quicker and into Apalachicola on Thursday night

 

[J.C.]

Euro is quicker and into Apalachicola on Thursday nightView attachment 151418

Can you post the precip map when it is ready please?

 

[GaWx]

Euro is quicker and into Apalachicola on Thursday nightView attachment 151418

The 0Z Euro’s 989 at landfall is similar to the strength of UKMET/CMC and much weaker than the Icon/GFS MH with landfall Thu night (much closer to GFS’ Thu evening and UK’s Fri afternoon) than Icon’s Sun morning

 

[GaWx]

0Z EPS: follows the faster and further E 0Z Euro but it is like the Euro still NW of the GFS suite with tracks centered on Apalachicola that then go N near the GA/AL line before curling back NNW. It is similar to the GEPS.

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[NoSnowATL]

So it’s big bend or Pensacola..

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

View attachment 151420

Looks to be the eastern outlier as the rest of the 0Z suite came in and now 6Z

 

[jrips27]

Can you post the precip map when it is ready please?

My fault I cashed out after posting that last night

 

[HugeSnowStick]

My fault I cashed out after posting that last night

View attachment 151421

Is their some kind of curse over Atlanta?

 

[Henry2326]

A turn in the bubble eastward

 

[Henry2326]

Good grief.....give this some credibility. If this verifies, it would mow down far inland.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Good grief.....give this some credibility. If this verifies, it would mow down far inland.

View attachment 151423

Thats old. 6z is out

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

Moving NE

 

[Downeastnc]

Going to be a lot of back and forth with the east and west solutions, 06Z GFS back to Pensacola due north with the system into west TN. ICON was faster and further NE though at 06Z...

 

[NoSnowATL]

We are def watching it down here in PCB. Strong storms tend to go east so hope she gets to a Cat 5. I just ask for 2-3in of rain from it. Just need a center.

 

[Henry2326]

Thats old. 6z is out

It's going to go back and forth, further west and then back east until a center is established. Could be any of these solutions at this point.

 

[Henry2326]

So no need to consider MS/LA solutions.

 

[tractor girl]

 

[ForsythSnow]

So no need to consider MS/LA solutions.

View attachment 151426

You can see the modeling picking up on the phasing with the jet stream more on the ENS as you can every major model. That's likely what's making the size of this storm so massive and will only cause more rain and wind inland than normal.

 

[GaWx]

6Z EPS mean shifted slightly W of its 0Z run mean (now a little W of AL/GA border vs about on that border)

 

[GaWx]

6Z Euro-AI shifted ~50 miles NW of its 0Z with it coming in to the middle of the Big Bend vs the far rt portion of it on the 0Z

 

[NWMSGuy]

LOL. Although the outlier and regardless of pressure, the Korean is remaining consistent on an LA hit.

 

[accu35]

6Z EPS mean shifted slightly W of its 0Z run mean (now a little W of AL/GA border vs about on that border)

A you post the image please?

 

[Snow_chaser]

LOL. Although the outlier and regardless of pressure, the Korean is remaining consistent on an LA hit.

View attachment 151428

That Korean model wants some gumbo lol

 

[HugeSnowStick]

LOL. Although the outlier and regardless of pressure, the Korean is remaining consistent on an LA hit.

View attachment 151428

Not with that upper low over Oklahoma.

 

[GaWx]

A you post the image please?

I can’t. It’s from a paid site.

 

[Arcc]

LOL. Although the outlier and regardless of pressure, the Korean is remaining consistent on an LA hit.

View attachment 151428

While the model is obviously wonky, I wouldn’t discount that solution.

 

[GaWx]

It isn’t finished, but the 12Z Icon is well E of its prior runs with it missing the Yucatan to the E for the first time.