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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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60%, extended the bubble, and added a circle.

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A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
the adjacent portions of Central America. Thereafter, gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of
Mexico through the end of next week. Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

4. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move westward from the coast of
Africa on Sunday or Monday. Gradual development of this system is
possible next week as it moves west-northwestward over the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.
 
jrips27 said:
Theme of the early 12z runs is a sloppy mess. Different timing and landfall points. Still wouldn’t expect to see a consensus til we get a real center View attachment 151387View attachment 151388View attachment 151386
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I really wouldn’t trust any of the modeling on either track or especially strength until there is an actual system to lock onto. I’ll always remember how models had Michael as a TS/ weak hurricane at landfall when it was first developing
 
Chazwin said:
I really wouldn’t trust any of the modeling on either track or especially strength until there is an actual system to lock onto. I’ll always remember how models had Michael as a TS/ weak hurricane at landfall when it was first developing
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Absolutely. Anything can happen and surprises are usually a given
 
Chazwin said:
I really wouldn’t trust any of the modeling on either track or especially strength until there is an actual system to lock onto. I’ll always remember how models had Michael as a TS/ weak hurricane at landfall when it was first developing
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Especially the way they have blown up quickly in the Gulf the past few years.
 
Snow_chaser said:
Good chance if Atlanta and NW Georgia want rain, we need this around Gulf Shores/Orange Beach landfall. Seems like NW Georgia misses out on good rain when it’s Panama City or East, weather goes up 85 and East.
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I do not think we need this at all, not at this strength. A track like Opal in 1995, but with Beryl in 1994's intensity would do just fine. Beryl dropped a lot of rain, but did not have very much wind with it except in the Fla panhandle.
 
LC'S latest. He also talks about storm 2 that i posted about in the tropical thread.

There have been tropical cyclone impacts on the USA this eason, but mostly lower strength systems with localized damage (like Beryl on July 7-8). But there is some unease with the current pattern, with tropical disturbances posing a threat to the central/eastern Gulf Coast and eventually the Eastern Seaboard and Appalachia.

Note the two impulses in the Caribbean Sea. All of the numerical models show these systems as a threat for enhanced tropical cyclone development. The first feature will likely move through Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula, then on into the central Gulf of Mexico. The descent of an upper level low through the Ozark Plateau implies that this possible Helene will recurve to the northeast, making landfall as a hurricane near Pensacola FL around the morning of September 27. The moisture fetch to the right of the 500MB low (south central Arkansas) will interact with a frontal structure that sets up from northern Mississippi into Maryland. This is the reason why more emphasis is placed on flooding rain potential by next weekend in Dixie, the Appalachian Mountains, and the Mid-Atlantic region.

But another problem presents itself with the second disturbance, which will follow the path of its predecessor, perhaps slightly to the left. Since the shearing wind profile of the aforementioned upper air disturbance will weaken, the incoming disturbance may be deeper in terms of pressure and therefore a producer of stronger wind velocities in the Gulf of Mexico. The time frame for approach and landfall for the enwer feature is about October 1-2.

Stay tuned.
 
JHS said:
I do not think we need this at all, not at this strength. A track like Opal in 1995, but with Beryl in 1994's intensity would do just fine. Beryl dropped a lot of rain, but did not have very much wind with it except in the Fla panhandle.
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I agree, and opal came in at Pensacola Beach not to far from Orange Beach. Beryl came in at Panama City Beach and NW Georgia didn’t get alot from it. We didn’t get much off of the monster cat 5 Michael up this way either
 
Thinking about grabbing some buddies and chasing this if it happens to hit Friday/Saturday somewhere in the Northern Gulf. Probably wouldn’t go if it’s higher than a Category 2, but have been wanting to experience a hurricane for awhile now.

Wouldn’t go super close to the coast and obviously would avoid any storm surge zones. Still just an idea but I’m considering it
 
jrips27 said:
Thinking about grabbing some buddies and chasing this if it happens to hit Friday/Saturday somewhere in the Northern Gulf. Probably wouldn’t go if it’s higher than a Category 2, but have been wanting to experience a hurricane for awhile now.

Wouldn’t go super close to the coast and obviously would avoid any storm surge zones. Still just an idea but I’m considering it
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I won’t chase under a 3 these days.

Have chased two 5s. (Ian and Michael).

Enjoyable
 
JHS said:
This is getting into closer range now and may very well happen. The track will change many more times of course, but if this run verified it's lights out for millions from GA and FLA up into the mid-Atlantic . This would be as bad as Hugo and over a larger area.
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I don’t really see it one the modeling moving as quickly inland as Hugo or even Opal did, so I wouldn’t think you’d see the widespread wind damage inland that those two storms brought. This does have the potential to be a widespread major flooding event
 
JHS said:
I do not think we need this at all, not at this strength. A track like Opal in 1995, but with Beryl in 1994's intensity would do just fine. Beryl dropped a lot of rain, but did not have very much wind with it except in the Fla panhandle.
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1994's Beryl helped spawn the most significant tornado outbreak imby. No thanks.
I was at the grocery store trying to buy ketchup when an F3 came across the parking lot.
 
Shawn said:
1994's Beryl helped spawn the most significant tornado outbreak imby. No thanks.
I was at the grocery store trying to buy ketchup when an F3 came across the parking lot.
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That's true, but it did not have the widespread 60-80 mph gusts the 18z GFS has for many of us. Now back to Beryl it also spawned the strongest tornado Union County has seen in a long time, an F3 too, I think. Another one caused damage a little later in Cherokee county.
 
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