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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

I generally like the overall look on the aifs the last several runs holistically.

If we had the kind of Central America Gyre case where we were just waiting for the Kelvin wave envelope to cross Central America to trigger everything, I’d agree with the euro on keeping development entirely in the BOC knowing how the gfs likes to speed these things up.

Oth, the trough that digs into the southern gulf in a few days and triggers QG ascent in the western Caribbean & subsidence + shear in the bay of Campeche changes the calculus of this whole setup a lot.

Eventually, the environment gets better in the bay of Campeche, but it takes longer to get conducive for large scale convective heating than in the western Caribbean
 
0Z UKMET: TCG at 168 hours 75 miles SSW of W tip of Cuba (50 miles NE of 12Z’s hour 168 position, which is 12 hours earlier); already down to 1001 mb:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.8N 85.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2024 168 20.8N 85.3W 1001 32
 
12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night.
 
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