Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[Webberweather53]

I generally like the overall look on the aifs the last several runs holistically.

If we had the kind of Central America Gyre case where we were just waiting for the Kelvin wave envelope to cross Central America to trigger everything, I’d agree with the euro on keeping development entirely in the BOC knowing how the gfs likes to speed these things up.

Oth, the trough that digs into the southern gulf in a few days and triggers QG ascent in the western Caribbean & subsidence + shear in the bay of Campeche changes the calculus of this whole setup a lot.

Eventually, the environment gets better in the bay of Campeche, but it takes longer to get conducive for large scale convective heating than in the western Caribbean

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

ILL TAKE THE RED ARROWS ON THE ATTACHED PICTURE
REF THE BLACK ARROW AS THAT IS MY HOUSE

 

[jeremyt]

Gonna be a long 10 days or so with people living and dying by each individual model run and posting what they like! Has it formed yet?

 

[GaWx]

0Z UKMET: TCG at 168 hours 75 miles SSW of W tip of Cuba (50 miles NE of 12Z’s hour 168 position, which is 12 hours earlier); already down to 1001 mb:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 168 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+168 : 20.8N 85.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2024 168 20.8N 85.3W 1001 32

 

[lexxnchloe]

CMC and gfs not worth posting a map about. Very weak and basically nothing

 

[Shaggy]

Ensembles remain very active not just for this storm but the others as well.

 

[lexxnchloe]

Makes a comeback at 06z

 

[Henry2326]

Icon and GFS are on point on 9/27.

The rest of them all over the place.

 

[Henry2326]

How different can they be????

 

[Henry2326]

NHC extends the circle to the west.

 

[Chazwin]

Icon and GFS are on point on 9/27.

The rest of them all over the place.

View attachment 151336

View attachment 151337

As much as I’ve been down on the Icon at times the last few years, I gotta say, it’s done very well with predicting storm development this year

 

[Shaggy]

As much as I’ve been down on the Icon at times the last few years, I gotta say, it’s done very well with predicting storm development this year

I've started looking at the icon more than I do the cmc. It sometimes does good with a system and sometimes it misses too

 

[NWMSGuy]

For what it's worth, the 0Z Spire model moves this close to the Big Bend area before moving it northwest from there.

 

[GaWx]

12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night.

 

[Chazwin]

12Z ICON: major change in track vs prior runs! Instead of going into the W Gulf, it never goes W of 89W and landfalls (at ~997 mb) at Panama City, FL, at hour 159 on Thu night.

That would certainly be more in line with climo for late September

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[thanksgivingbrown]

Man if those model runs come to fruition Saturday 28th in Tuscaloosa is gonna be a mess for the big game between Bama and Georgia.

 

[accu35]

Gfs is really wanting MS/AL