Gotta watch how the system consolidates for the next 24-48 hours. If it looks good by tommorow night, then worse case scenario of major hurricane. If the shear keeps it in check by tomorrow night, then best case scenario of a Cat 1. We've seen if the system is broad, it has trouble strengthening to a major even in good conditions.
I don't think Tampa but don't believe Mobile either. The trough is key, and it's odd that it's trending more progressive the last few runs. We need the trough timing locked in to know where this is going, but I'm betting PCB to the big bend as landfall but would say Apalachicola to the big bend as most likely.
If you note the max at the bottom right, that's almost 200 kmph, which is gusting to 186, which is still highly intense. EWRCs will play a huge role in intensity whether they happen or not, but it's that jet interaction that seems to be enhancing post-landfall winds.
I am about to take my morning walk and just get my mind right for this storm. I barely slept last night thinking of the storm and the impact and the all the uncertainty with it. See yall at 12Z suite.
Have a good walk, don't stress out man, it's gonna do what it's gonna do. No wishful thinking, wish casting, is going to change what happens.
Indeed...the fast forward speed of this rather scary.. I know most will focus on the landfall but if these stronger solutions verify we are looking at a serious and widespread threat for wind damage far inland. .
I'm fortunate to live in a bit of a valley with underground utilities so weather-related power failures are uncommon. I would think worst case inland wind near me would be 40mph with higher gusts. But with the trees all still leafed out, that is plenty enough to take down plenty of trees of which I have many.
At least Atlanta would be on the west side
Be kinda relative that close to the center
Widespread sustained 40 to 60 mph winds is still going to be rough likely if gusts will be 60 to 80 too. I'd bet on widespread power outages if it does come in this intense.
It wouldn't be so severe if this wasn't phasing with an upper level low coming down. Just like winter storms, when phasing occurs the low gets enhanced and wind fields increase. The speed this flies inland too is only going to make it affect more area with high winds. It'd def be more beneficial if a met chimes in on this though to get a better idea of the outcomes.
. That area is more than likely going to be on the west side but still to blow it off as no threat seems dangerous
That might be too far west to worry. This will only go east. I don’t see west trends if it’s strong.Prayers for all in its path. My wife and her sister just spent the weekend in Foley Al/ Glf Shores and she said there’s very little talk about a possible storm and those that are talking saying it won’t be bad
Are people so unhinged today that they are literally wishing for this storm to come near them for the adrenaline surge? wtf world are we living in today
that is typically how it goes
i think it is prudent to be weary, especially when an invest has a lot of hype, but over the last decade these types of storms that originate in the western caribbean and get pulled north have met, if not exceeded, intensity expectations. personally i don't think this will be any different
No, that’s the opposite of what the OP said. He’s worried about it and hoping it’s weaker than forecast.
