Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[kennedybb6]

I am wondering if someone can explain the dynamics that would pull it to the west and not east thanks for all the information you guys provide for novice people like me

 

[snowc]

I'm fortunate to live in a bit of a valley with underground utilities so weather-related power failures are uncommon. I would think worst case inland wind near me would be 40mph with higher gusts. But with the trees all still leafed out, that is plenty enough to take down plenty of trees of which I have many.

Anyone living at elevation should be especially prepared since the risk of inland wind damage is higher than usual with this setup.

In NC, nothing interesting exists for hurricanes.

 

[snowc]

Here we go!!!
The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the central Gulf of Mexico, at 1100 AM EDT.

 

[Brent]

I am wondering if someone can explain the dynamics that would pull it to the west and not east thanks for all the information you guys provide for novice people like me

It's the upper low over Arkansas

Now I'm not saying it won't shift east nobody knows for sure but that is why the models are so far west right now. Whether they are right or not remains to be seen

 

[NoSnowATL]

I am wondering if someone can explain the dynamics that would pull it to the west and not east thanks for all the information you guys provide for novice people like me

The position of the cut off is everything. If it digs more it’s east. Stay west or north it’s going a little west as it’s closer to landfall. Also the H east of Florida is very important . It’s a one state different and it means a lot.

 

[NoSnowATL]

It's the upper low over Arkansas

Now I'm not saying it won't shift east nobody knows for sure but that is why the models are so far west right now. Whether they are right or not remains to be seenView attachment 151495

Nothing is west. Appcola is the most west I see.

 

[kennedybb6]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts weather family

 

[Brent]

Nothing is west. Appcola is the most west I see.

I'm referring to after landfall when it curves away from NC. Clearly there's only so far west it can go before landfall

 

[SASQUATCH]

I am wondering if someone can explain the dynamics that would pull it to the west and not east thanks for all the information you guys provide for novice people like me

It will perhaps have a pseudo-Fujiwhara Effect on it with a separate upper low parked over Arkansas. Check out link below:

Fujiwhara Effect

 

[ILMRoss]

It will perhaps have a pseudo-Fujiwhara Effect on it with a separate upper low parked over Arkansas.

Fujiwhara Effect

not even pseudo, it's the full blown thing, things could get a little weird once this thing makes landfall

 

[ForsythSnow]

Nothing is west. Appcola is the most west I see.

I'd say PCB at the most extreme but that's only if the trough lags behind some. There's a tight consensus though.

 

[SD]

you have 3 difference pieces here that will affect the landfall and eventual track.

I would watch for the cutoff to continue an eastward drift and the shortwave over the NE to trend slower deeper which will shift the SER east and shorter which may lead to a slightly east but faster track but then potentially a more dramatic west turn of the remnant L.

 

[SASQUATCH]

not even pseudo, it's the full blown thing, things could get a little weird once this thing makes landfall

Well, maybe bad choice of words, just meaning one is not a hurricane.

 

[snowc]

Here we go!!!
The National Hurricane Center will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, located over the central Gulf of Mexico, at 1100 AM EDT.

 

[NoSnowATL]

Y

I'd say PCB at the most extreme but that's only if the trough lags behind some. There's a tight consensus though.

I think the cut off digs more and is more east and will be closer to N Miss. I will say Alligator point is landfall location. High Cat 3

 

[snowc]

PTC likely later this morning

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

It happened!

 

[DustinWx]

I changed title

 

[ILMRoss]

Well, maybe bad choice of words, just meaning one is not a hurricane.

no don't worry i get it, i thought and said the exact same thing in a group chat this morning until somebody replied with the 500mb evolution and i was like wow... i stand corrected...

I'd say PCB at the most extreme but that's only if the trough lags behind some. There's a tight consensus though.

to me i'm unsure consensus necessarily equates to certainty, i think the ULL impacting steering injects some more variability than usual- we all know how much of a PITA they can be to forecast

 

[jeremyt]

In NC, nothing interesting exists for hurricanes.

Because you haven’t experienced a bad one! I grew up in Harnett and you would have lost your mind during Fran if a little power outage bothers you!

 

[GaWx]

The location of the low level center (if one is found) by recon this afternoon is obviously going to be quite an important variable as far as future track is concerned.