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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Not seeing it hoss

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Good morning guys. We have a busy next 48-72 hours coming up. I wanted to list what I see in the key differences between the Euro and GFS.:
  • Trough Strength: The GFS shows a deeper, stronger trough, potentially pulling the storm northward more quickly, whereas the ECMWF indicates a slightly weaker trough, which might slow the storm's northward progress.
  • Ridge Influence: The ECMWF ridge appears stronger and more influential, possibly guiding the storm more directly into the Gulf of Mexico and limiting any eastward turn.
  • Storm Position and Intensity: The GFS indicates a stronger storm system located slightly more eastward, while the ECMWF shows a slightly weaker storm located more westward.

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weatherboyy said:
AL, 09, 2024092412, , BEST, 0, 194N, 837W, 40, 1000, D.
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Might help if you elaborate on that recon data, some on here aren't going to understand it, heck I could use a refresher myself from time to time. Where'd you find it and what they indicate, might help others understand why this will most likely be Helene at next update
 
Really need that Atlantic ridge to relax and allow this thing to cross FL at the Big Bend and up through the Mid Atlantic states....selfishly hoping for a decent weekend of weather.

In all honesty, I think that will be the major influencer. If the ridge relaxes, off she goes to the northeast. If it doesn't, it will move north through the eastern panhandle, then get caught in the Fujiwhara effect with the ULL in MS and bend hard back NW.
 
12z high res models keying in on a pretty solid wave a rain developing across the vicinity of North GA as early as tomorrow afternoon. Looks like a combination of the ULL lingering to the west and a developing PRE event as the tropical moisture gets pulled in. These are valid through 2:00 AM Thursday Morning. Someone might end up with a few inches of rain long before the main storm arrives.CF984989-E122-447C-8350-C8FFEE772221.pngE3B8BC8A-CAA9-49B6-8B35-1F59ED4F8B21.pngC620349F-5C2D-4D08-B77E-690E3941767B.png
 
"The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future."
 
jrips27 said:
"The track guidance is very tightly
clustered, which would normally imply high forecast confidence.
However, depending on exactly where the center forms could end up
shifting the entire guidance suite in future cycles, so it is
imperative to not focus on specific landfall locations this far in
the future."
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this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
 
ILMRoss said:
this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
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Just going over the Recon data looks like it shows two or three different little spins that they found so nothing definitive yet for sure
 
ILMRoss said:
this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
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LOL, visible loop has been refreshed every five minutes since sunrise.

That low-level swirl is booking it SSW around the mean center. It'll be interesting whether or not it is pulled back in or the mid-level center takes over.
 
ILMRoss said:
this is really important. i don't know how many of you sickos have a permanent tab on the vis open like i do but this thing just ejected an LLC from the central dense overcast. It's still very mushy at the surface and i don't really want to make any sweeping statements until that whole deal is figured out
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Have a feeling it'll rotate back around. The overall circulation envelope is massive. Seeing multiple small Eddies just whipping around her right now.
 
12Z CMC: 977 Big Bend Thu night, but it only weakens to 978 mb SE of Atlanta! That would be bordering on alltime record low SLPs in that region of GA. The potential damage well inland should not be understated.
 
Arcc said:
Just to jog everyone’s memory, but these big Caribbean gyre type storms are really messy every time in the formation stages.

Ugly, early is par for the course.
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This is true. I think if you looked at the satellite pictures of Michael in its formation stages, you would think no way is that gonna be a category 5 hurricane
 
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