NoSnowATL
Member
losing power, kids out of school and you are out of work for weeks, Yea you have it.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Plane is off now. It'll be later this afternoon before it gets to the system but we'll see if there's a designation above PTC by 5 most likely. I'm seeing two rotations on visible which could just be the mid and low level circulations though.
NEGaweather
Member
Henry2326
Member
06z HMON coming in alignment with HWRF in pressure at 930 and closer to HWRF landfall.....
The good news about the HMON is it was significantly weaker than 0z. Still a strong storm though.
snowc
Member
dont see it yet
snowc
Member
It is. Or at least the effect is the same.
FWIW, the 12Z NAM is a bit west as a direct result of the ULL being SW of some of its earlier solutions.
JHS
Member
It looks to me like this has to go NNW through Al into Tenn with this 500mb flow. Of course, things will change many times before then.
Brent
Member
110 mph peak on the first forecast 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Saw that and that's very telling on how they see this. Few storms initialize at that level and don't become massive. Ian also was at max that on advisory 1.110 mph peak on the first forecast
snowc
Member
Henry2326
Member
Michael hit that same area at 919....I'm not sure the destruction is much different from 930 to 919, or even 900.
Henry2326
Member
Nhc discussion....
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
snowc
Member
Hey, not in the path of storm!!!
LickWx
Member
Folks in Florida better start charging their phones NOW!
Henry2326
Member
Mark your calendar.....the NAM doesn't have the worse case on this storm. That should tell you, we have a problem. Appears to agree with General area.
tractor girl
Member
Reed has it passing over S GA and into midstate SC. GFS has our ULL more east, which he thinks is going to push it further east.
weatherboyy
Member
As my experience I've been tracking storm since 2000 I must say this is going to be a cat 3 moving very fast I don't see this getting a cat 5 or 4
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
Not enough time to get to a cat 5 I don’t think