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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)
 
tractor girl said:
There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)
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I don’t think he/she means that. I think he/she means landfall strength. Cat 3 anywhere near that far inland? No way. Also the case for cat 2 I’d think.
 
GaWx said:
I don’t think he/she means that. I think he/she means landfall strength. Cat 3 anywhere near that far inland? No way. Also the case for cat 2 I’d think.
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Yeah there's no way this will be a significant hurricane still in Atlanta but widespread 60-70 mph winds for a few hours are gonna cause a lot of issues. I don't think people realize how bad even those winds can be. That will put down hundreds of trees in Atlanta. That's pretty much what Opal was. I think that's pretty much the assumption of what happens here barring something really crazy. It's gonna be hard to get at least widespread winds stronger than that that far inland
 
tractor girl said:
There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)
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I was referring to landfall strength. Obviously there will be significant weakening of sustained surface winds after landfall..but across the board the models are showing high boundary layer winds..indeed they aren't showing much weakening at all until the mountains. Which means high gust potential.
 
Shawn said:
The winds will be felt well outside the center of the storm. A Cat 4 or 5 (unlikely) hitting FL would destroy ATL, and a lot of others with wind due to the forward speed and size.
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I mean yeah if this turns into Michael then the storyline may change but well it's naked right now and sheared... Until the storyline changes we need to take a deep breath
 
Shawn said:
Thank you. Anyone hoping this thing reaches major status and stronger is bat-**** nsane
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Cat 2 in atlanta is a pipe dream and probably physically impossible. I hope nobody is hoping that. however i'm still pretty bullish on the strenght; and if it continues to get its ducks in a row with the structure and establishing a cdo this will make a run at a 4
 
Looking at the visible satellite loop currently, it seems that the exposed center is ever so slowly getting some convection surrounding it. Also looks to be moving back to the NW to NNW as opposed to its ejection earlier today.
 
tractor girl said:
There's no way this system maintains a CAT 3 (or even 2) as far up as ATL. I mean, if that DID happen it would be really bad esp for folks west of ATL (assuming the tracks even remain as they are - a lot is up in the air with Yucatan partial or full landfall)
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I have an anemometer printout from Hugo from 34.233244, -80.659689 with 4 wind gusts >110mph (off the scale of the meter).
That coordinate is in Lugoff, SC about 122 miles from McClellanville, SC where Hugo made landfall.
 
She's gonna be a big one.

A quote from the NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center.

“Helene's forecast radii are at the 90th percentile of hurricane size at similar latitudes.

Due to the forecast large size of this
system, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will extend well away from the center, particularly on the east side.

In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”
 
GaWx said:
I’m extra worried that the tornado threat from this in especially the NE sector is going to be high. Is that true? Any thoughts? I haven’t heard much about that yet.
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I would expect that with the overall size of the storm that’s expected and the fast forward speed, there could be an exceptionally higher risk for tornadoes in the right front quadrant
 
jrips27 said:
18z 3K NAM rain totals. This is all BEFORE the system makes landfall so this is solely from the PRE

Models are locking in on a significant rainfall event in North Georgia View attachment 151651
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Not sure I'd it's just me but I think this plus Helene is going to rival 2009's flooding if the totals truly reach those levels.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not sure I'd it's just me but I think this plus Helene is going to rival 2009's flooding if the totals truly reach those levels.
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I hope not. The ground is very dry and the antecedent rainfall will hopefully help prime it for uptake of the moderate to heavy precipitation rates that follow.
 
FFC is buying into the PRE for tomorrow. Link to the full disco at bottom:

The biggest thing to note compared to the
previous forecast is increasing confidence on heavy rainfall leading
to flash flooding across much of North GA including the ATL metro
tomorrow (Wednesday) afternoon. Tropical moisture will be on the
increase and will set up ahead of the frontal boundary moving in
from the northwest. Thus, PWs will be upwards of 2+ inches per
latest guidances. An upgrade (from WPC) will be forthcoming for
northeast GA down south including Metro ATL for a Moderate Risk (3
out of 4) of Excessive Rainfall -- i.e. the greatest risk for
rainfall intense enough to cause flash flooding. Latest forecast
totals (for Wednesday only) ranges from 2 to 3 inches with locally
higher amounts. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding potential will be
the main concern for tomorrow (Wednesday) -- note: this is ahead of
anything tropical related. As a result of increasing confidence in
hydro related issues, we have opted to issue a Flood Watch for much
of North and Central GA. This will encompass the threat for
Wednesday and then the evolving threat for the Thursday-Friday
timeframe in association with Tropical Storm Helene. For details
about Tropical Storm Helene please see the long term discussion
below.

FFC Afternoon Disco
 
DustinWx said:
If the storm is moving so fast; what would cause so much rain ?
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the tropical moisture envelope extends well past helene. take that rich airmass and have it get ingested into the forcing ahead of a sharp trough- really efficient way to create heavy rain. i totally buy the qpf forecasts
 
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