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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

12z HMON......918 at landfall and moves more eastern track, rather than north.
Just to be clear, between the HWRF and HMON, we have a cat4/cat5 with now multiple forecasts. If you live in the impacted NHC cone, HAVE A PLAN TO LEAVE!


hmon_mslp_wind_09L_29.png
 
jrips27 said:
No idea how these hurricane models do with inland wind gusts but, here you goView attachment 151523
Click to expand...
Me either but scary looking output. Pretty much across the board model agreement on very high winds pretty much all the way to the mountains. I usually temper my expectations ..especially with it being 3 days out but I'll be honest this one has me pretty nervous already since the models are in especially good agreement. Besides the damage...Power outages will be so widespread that it will be days before getting it back.

Also will be watching the pre storm convection well out ahead of the storm. Normally a storm this fast wouldn't spell rainfall too extreme but It looks like there could be training/stationary rain bands as it starts to interact with the upper low. Its been awfully dry but this would certainly Saturate grounds ahead of it..which isn't great for obvious reasons.

For myself I'm hoping for an east trend..I don't want to be in the northern or ne eyewall...which for now it looks like a lot of us in GA will be.
 
Before this thread goes any further let's decide on what we want to do

#1 all discussion related to this storm is in this thread including inland effects. This means you can't get mad if someone in NC is talking alot flooding at their location

#2 we put the inland tornado/flooding/wind threat in its own thread. The fact this system may move from the gulf coast to the southern apps in about 18 hrs there will potentially be an uncharacteristically large inland impact.

You guys tell me how you want to move forward but I wanted to get these options out there so in 48 hours there isn't bickering about it
 
tractor girl said:
It has 955 south of Macon. Low grade CAT 3 numbers that far inland is still kind of bonkers.


View attachment 151528
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Yeah, I'm really worried about Macon south. 940 in Sth GA, they don't build for that kind of wind. And it's consistent with the hurricane models. Just unbelievable and scary of the number of people who don't see this coming. They need to be covering windows.
 
SD said:
Before this thread goes any further let's decide on what we want to do

#1 all discussion related to this storm is in this thread including inland effects. This means you can't get mad if someone in NC is talking alot flooding at their location

#2 we put the inland tornado/flooding/wind threat in its own thread. The fact this system may move from the gulf coast to the southern apps in about 18 hrs there will potentially be an uncharacteristically large inland impact.

You guys tell me how you want to move forward but I wanted to get these options out there so in 48 hours there isn't bickering about it
Click to expand...
I say 1
 
SD said:
Before this thread goes any further let's decide on what we want to do

#1 all discussion related to this storm is in this thread including inland effects. This means you can't get mad if someone in NC is talking alot flooding at their location

#2 we put the inland tornado/flooding/wind threat in its own thread. The fact this system may move from the gulf coast to the southern apps in about 18 hrs there will potentially be an uncharacteristically large inland impact.

You guys tell me how you want to move forward but I wanted to get these options out there so in 48 hours there isn't bickering about it
Click to expand...

#1
 
SD said:
Before this thread goes any further let's decide on what we want to do

#1 all discussion related to this storm is in this thread including inland effects. This means you can't get mad if someone in NC is talking alot flooding at their location

#2 we put the inland tornado/flooding/wind threat in its own thread. The fact this system may move from the gulf coast to the southern apps in about 18 hrs there will potentially be an uncharacteristically large inland impact.

You guys tell me how you want to move forward but I wanted to get these options out there so in 48 hours there isn't bickering about it
Click to expand...
I say leave it all together....
 
Levi made a good point of the HAFS modeling trying to vertically stack the system tonight.

We will have a good idea if they are on the right track in real time. He is doubting it, we shall see.
 
Henry2326 said:
12z HAFS A and B.....I've never seen these all bomb out at the same time. Still bombing....
900 and 910.
HMON 918
HWRF. 930
This is scary.....

View attachment 151526
View attachment 151527
Click to expand...
If my memory is correct didn’t all the hurricane models want to bomb out Michael while the Euro and GFS were topping out at borderline 2/3? I seem to remember everyone over at AmericanWX discounting them until that RI the night before landfall
 
SD said:
Before this thread goes any further let's decide on what we want to do

#1 all discussion related to this storm is in this thread including inland effects. This means you can't get mad if someone in NC is talking alot flooding at their location

#2 we put the inland tornado/flooding/wind threat in its own thread. The fact this system may move from the gulf coast to the southern apps in about 18 hrs there will potentially be an uncharacteristically large inland impact.

You guys tell me how you want to move forward but I wanted to get these options out there so in 48 hours there isn't bickering about it
Click to expand...
We may lose the storm if we start a new thread like we do snow storms. 😂 All jokes aside, hoping for the best outcome for you folks further east.
 
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