• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

Status
Not open for further replies.
18z landfall
HMON. 937.....was 943 in 12z
HAFS-A. 933.....was 969 in 12z
HAFS-B. 945.....was 967 in 12z
HWRF. 941.....was 943 in 12z

hmon_ref_09L_18.png
hafsa_ref_09L_19.png
hafsb_ref_09L_18.png
hwrf_ref_09L_18.png
 
If you wanna see the worst case scenario for WNC and the upstate, the 18z HAFS-A model has you covered. Thankfully I think(hope) it is significantly overdone.

Meanwhile I just messaged a friend in Seneca and my family in Western Gaston County to have everything fully charged just in case.
 
severestorm said:
the cloud pattern from a IR image?
Click to expand...

It has that curled up "shrimp" look based on IR. It just needs to have the remaining shear lessen on the Southern/Southwestern sides and have convection begin to blow up for it to close off completely and have a more classic tropical cyclone look.
 
SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 85.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
 
NEGaweather said:



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

As long as it stays east of us. Seems like in the past there have been fewer clusters of spinners on the left side when the eye passes. I've still seen gusts near 100 from fast moving storms on this tract. Don't want twisters to add in, lol.
 
Got tons of Family in Valdosta GA. Also right on Lake Chatuge which is on NC, GA line. Most worried about the mountain ones right now. They have drained the lake down supposedly. Absoloute Beatifull area if you ever get the chance. Caught the leaf out at its peak 2 years ago, riding back. Cant be beat.
 
Snow_chaser said:
Where does this come from? I’m confused when all these posts showing models now going up east GA towards SC? Was it the Icon?
Click to expand...
The graph shown above is the spaghetti plot thats on Tropical Tidbits of the hurricane models. The other ones you've likely seen going more east are in house models from local mets. I've seen many of them sharing their in house models which have had helene going farther east
 
Snow_chaser said:
Where does this come from? I’m confused when all these posts showing models now going up east GA towards SC? Was it the Icon?
Click to expand...

These are the actual hurricane models and honestly when they are bunched like that, they are good.

Still think they need to return the GFDL.
 
Stupid rules. I’ve used Facebook or TikTok before but I’d rather use YouTube
 
rburrel2 said:
I know it’s just for fun, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen the 3km NAM go below 885mb before. Wonder if there’s some theoretical max programmed in. Apparently not.
Click to expand...
I think it went to 882mb 24 hours before Michael made landfall. That ended up being 918mb. So yeah it’s definitely overdone, but even if you add 40mb it’s still high end cat 4
 
Snow_chaser said:
Where does this come from? I’m confused when all these posts showing models now going up east GA towards SC? Was it the Icon?
Click to expand...
Too many icon and HAFS A postings skew the reality all models have been coming west slowly that we're east. I'm expecting the brunt of the storm here or N GA between the training storms and the gusts as the eye approaches its going to be rough.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top