Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[JHS]

Is the NAM pretty accurate at 78 hours ?

Maybe not, but these are huge changes. I wonder if recon data may have made it into this run.

 

[BullCityWx]

And this is why getting all horned up over these mega model runs right now isn't the best idea.
I don't think anyone here is ignoring the ceiling of what this storm could be but there's an equally mediocre floor (or whatever words you want to use here). Many of these hurricane models are in the 970s low 980s roughly this time tomorrow. Might be best to wait and see what happens tonight bc right now the system doesn't look that great

Also never bet against the euro

 

[ForsythSnow]

Headed for Panama City at 78 hours on the NAM at 985MB.

Unless other models have signs it'll be weaker I'm not buying a mesoscale model this far out that doesn't even have the range for proper initialization since it's outside of N America.

 

[JHS]

Unless other models have signs it'll be weaker I'm not buying a mesoscale model this far out that doesn't even have the range for proper initialization since it's outside of N America.

That a fair point. The ICON and GFS runs coming soon will tell us more and if they go this way too it may be real.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Surpass Opal impact...

The impacts could be similar to Hurricane Irma (2017). Irma was the most recent hurricane I could think of from memory that was pretty rough.

 

[ForsythSnow]

West.

 

[jrips27]

5pm update - explicitly forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall

 

[jeremyt]

Too many are putting stock into individual deterministic runs when there isn’t even a solid COC. It could go east, it could go west. The wishcasting is strong here when people should wait. Even then there could be dramatic changes! Slow down, take a deep breath and give it 24 hours!

 

[Chazwin]

Is the NAM pretty accurate at 78 hours ?

I often times question whether the NAM is gonna be right at 8 hours. I am curious though how much if any recon data went into that model run

 

[SnowwxAtl]

5pm update - explicitly forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall

Take it back east Lawd!

 

[jeremyt]

I often times question whether the NAM is gonna be right at 8 hours. I am curious though how much if any recon data went into that model run

I’m willing to guess none considering the times!

 

[Ron Burgundy]

West.
View attachment 151540

Well-called, sir

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

West.
View attachment 151540

Hey at least you’re on the “non dirty” side of it!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

And this is why getting all horned up over these mega model runs right now isn't the best idea.
I don't think anyone here is ignoring the ceiling of what this storm could be but there's an equally mediocre floor (or whatever words you want to use here). Many of these hurricane models are in the 970s low 980s roughly this time tomorrow. Might be best to wait and see what happens tonight bc right now the system doesn't look that great

The NAM takes a weak system over the NE Yucatan rather than shooting the channel and never really recovers.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

So is this west shift a sign of a trend or will it start shifting back east ?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Hey at least you’re on the “non dirty” side of it!

I'm getting a head-on impact which isn't good at all. The HWRF pretty much shows what we'd be getting and that's 70 to 80 mph gusts.

 

[NoSnowATL]

So is this west shift a sign of a trend or will it start shifting back east ?

it will shift back east overnight like has done the last few runs.

 

[JHS]

So is this west shift a sign of a trend or will it start shifting back east ?

The ICON should be well east. That upper low is about 200 miles northeast in this run so far.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

West.
View attachment 151540

That track is a worst-case scenario for much of inland Georgia.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

West.
View attachment 151540

If this comes to fruition, all of GA and the massive Metro of ATL could be crippled for days.