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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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Brent said:
I almost wonder if it's too big to really bomb out(I'm talking about the Cat 5 stuff...) I'm forseeing a very large Cat 3 tbh
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I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4
 
Chazwin said:
I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4
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Yeah and it's already got super low pressure... I mean usually 990 mb would already be a hurricane

So even if you see a 930-940 model run it could only be a 3
 
SnowwxAtl said:
Shift to west again. Lights out Atlanta! A very dangerous Thursday & Friday morning ahead!...sigh! Just are they seeing with the shift. Got to look at the 0z suite closely. Like one is saying, it must be something we don't know or a model they are using that we don't have access to for these slight adjustment west.
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Yea living in west Georgia definitely don’t like these shifts to the west. Seems like landfall staying close to the same but the bend to the NW in Georgia is shifting west alittle each update.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
0z Icon- a stronger Helene perhaps?
View attachment 151703
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The ICON is also sticking to its guns on bringing the storm up the eastern side of the cone once inland. Also it’s got the center basically on top of GSP Friday morning with a pressure still at 983mb
 
Chazwin said:
The ICON is also sticking to its guns on bringing the storm up the eastern side of the cone once inland. Also it’s got the center basically on top of GSP Friday morning with a pressure still at 983mb
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Yeah I’m confused as to why the official cone keeps shifting west when the models say otherwise.
 
Stevo24 said:
Yeah I’m confused as to why the official cone keeps shifting west when the models say otherwise.
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The NHC is a little to the east of the tropical model suite out of respect to the GFS and EMCF. That's a tight cluster well west of the ICON track.
 
Stevo24 said:
Yeah I’m confused as to why the official cone keeps shifting west when the models say otherwise.
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Well the NHC is usually really good at these. However I do question why atleast the cone isn’t a bit wider. I just looked at the most globals and hurricane model runs at the furthest west in GA any of those are is right over Atlanta.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I still don’t understand why so many models are showing the heaviest rain on the west side of the center. I always thought the west side was the good side.
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There is a front forecast to be draped along that pre-storm axis of heavy rain.
 
Chazwin said:
I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4
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Yeah pressure does not always equal winds, I got into the SW eye of Isabel, pressure was 970 mb and peak wind gust was 45 mph....once Helene gets inland there will be a lot of things that factor in to how well it can transport the stronger wind to the surface. Still gust well into TS strength could happen even several hundred miles inland especially if it is moving 25 mph....
 
Is it too early for an eye to develop? Because I'm seeing something that looks an awful lot like an eye:

Li4tPnR.gif
 
Chazwin said:
I remember that’s what happened with Ike in 2008. Never got above 110mph winds despite a pressure that would have been a higher end cat 4
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That’s kinda comparing apples to oranges though isn’t it? Ike’s core traveled over Cuba twice before emerging into the GOM. That played a factor in its lack of recovery as well besides its large size.
 
The N
tractor girl said:
Is it too early for an eye to develop? Because I'm seeing something that looks an awful lot like an eye:

Li4tPnR.gif
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The 11 PM position was 20 N. which would place the COC on the southern periphery of that convective mass. That said, it sure does look like an eye. Relocation? I doubt it, but maybe.
 
Gfs basically same position as 18z for landfall. I really don’t look at the globals in the short range alot, the hurricane models are the best hands down. I say gfs and the Icon are the eastern while the rest west. Blend it in then you have a apalachicola landfall perhaps
 
0Z UKMET: strongest run yet with 977 mb a few hours before a Thu night Apalachee Bay landfall. Keep in mind this tends to be a conservative model this far out.
Helene then goes to far NE GA, well E of ATL.
 
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