This is Ground Zero-B for major destruction. Ground Zero-A is the coastal Counties at landfall, But SW NC/North Ga Mountains are gonna get their worst hit in my lifetime from a Tropical entity. a Foot plus of Rain over 24 hr period in that terrain will turn catastrophic. There are like 19 peaks in the Smoky Mtns at or above (barely) 6,000 feet.
I agree with you somewhat, but you are discarding the massive Atlanta metro, 7.5 million, this could be ground Zero-B.
Typical, I get weenies and foolishness. This could damage major infrastructure; The mountains are basically sparsely populated.
Atlanta is on the NW side of most of the model guidance. You know how this works, right? The NW side is the side you want to be on. I'm not saying that Atlanta wont have any issues but I dont think they are currently facing what East Georgia/NW SC/WNC are going to face. That isnt even to mention the orographic lift and enhancement of wind that'll come with terrain.
doesn't the NHC have the center going directly over Atlanta ?
Looks to me on the latest runs it either right over Atlanta or a tad west of Atlanta, but as it’s been said, the size of this thing the impact will be wide spread
Looking at Cancun radar it appears that the lower part of the storm is off shore and moving away now from Mexico. The SWquadrant looks to be intensifying!
The center has only shifted slightly to the west. Impacts are staying the same becaus of the size. GSP has updated since CAE posted this and it's still looking like this.
Thank you for that clarification! Sure is deceiving on satellite. Guess it was a flare up.
HWRF and HMON have it just offshore.....but it never makes it on land and maintains pressure.
It probably isn't aligned vertically. the satellite is seeing the cloud top and the radar is seeing the ground returns.
That doesn't jive with this though. It will be interesting to watch it unfold. I don't have a dog in the fight. I'm NE of Atl & my family is NW of Atl. We're just getting ready to hunker down.
Which one is the mean plot?
Almost completely out of the Big Bend area now, with numerous members riding the AL/GA border.....so much for nice weather around here. The SW portions of the mountains in NC is in for torrential rains with upslope enhancements, as well as a buzzcut on trees above 5,000 ft. Praying for you guys that live up that way....its going to be rough.
Appreciate you understanding my post. Im not trying to down play, have a contest with heavy metro areas or any location. Im talking property damage, from MAJOR, MAJOR Flash Flooding. It will wash out roads and bridges galore in SW NC. Folks have no idea how much more destructive flash flooding is in that area. 95% folks live, towns located on valley floors at 1800- 2300 feet. But all around them are 4000- 6000ft Peaks. All that rain comes downhill into those valleys lightening fast , on top of what they are receiving straight from the sky. They will max out on total storm qpf,just from the metorology of upslope up the escarpment etc. My post has nothing to do with Money cost as a Metric. Its simply being logistically impaired well after the storm. Tree falls on a car, you file insurance,go get another, move on with life. But when your community looses roads, water treatment plants etc, the problem doesnt disappear the next day and affects everyone for weeks.
At this point it's all but certain imo areas east of a line from dawsonville to Lawrenceville to Forsyth will see the strongest impacts windwise...subject to any east shifts which doesn't look likely right now. The only real question in my mind is will Atlanta. Models show the worst of the wind to the right of the track but the northern eyewall will be no joke either. So only a slight west shift puts Atlanta innthe worst of it. I'm also concerned about local topographical effects..along the 85 corridor/northward due the unusual northward movement....as the windfield will be compressed between the low.center and the mountains. Some of the higher res models have hinted at this. For my local it looks rather grim...for example the wrf showing well over 100knot 850mb winds here is concerning to say the least. The only good news is this thing will be moving so fast the high winds will not last long.
Sheesh. That’s so unprecedented. Looks like Atlanta is 50-60mph
