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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

Drizzle Snizzle said:
I’ve literally never seen the NWS reference the ICON model in any of their discussions. It must not be very accurate.
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I don't remember the ICON being very useful in tropical scenarios like the GFS and Euro were. The HWRF has a better track record especially on major hurricanes. What really impacts this though is upper features as I mentioned, so the Euro and GFS are better at dictating here. I'd say a reasonable blend is Euro/GFS average on pathing, HWRF HMON intensity but swap out the HAFS if the storm exceeds expectations by a huge margin.
 
I keep seeing these wind maps and I think they are even less legit than usual inland. There’s nothing really dragging it quickly north and there’s not much gradient with a high to the north. Where you’d usually cut by a quarter, I’d almost cut by a half given this scenario.
 
BullCityWx said:
I keep seeing these wind maps and I think they are even less legit than usual inland. There’s nothing really dragging it quickly north and there’s not much gradient with a high to the north. Where you’d usually cut by a quarter, I’d almost cut by a half given this scenario.
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That's where things change here. That ULL is swinging it inland rapidly and preserving its pressure more as well as pushing the wind field out rapidly. Typically a storm comes in and that's it, but just like phasing winter storm energy pieces, you can get a strong low out of it.

For the maps, it really depends on terrain, gusts, the model, and how the structure evolves after landfall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The ICON is a huge outlier where it drops the ULL and can't be consistent either. Euro and GFS say central AR, this says far W KY. Not sure if that'll be the case but I'd rather bank on models that handle upper level features better.
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I wanted to add to your post on the latest ICON run.

In the GFS model, the storm was further west in the Gulf of Mexico before curving to the north or northeast. In contrast, the updated ICON run places the storm slightly further east and suggests it may take a more direct northerly route sooner, with a faster interaction with the trough.
The ECMWF also showed a similar eastern placement of the storm as the ICON, indicating a more northerly track, though the Euro model did not show quite as strong a blocking high to the northeast. The ICON's stronger ridge suggests that the storm will remain constrained to the Gulf until the trough begins to pull it northeastward.

Big Key here. The Trough Influence:
  • The GFS trough is more to the west, pulling the storm on a longer track into the Gulf, while both the ECMWF and ICON models suggest that the trough will impact the storm sooner, resulting in a quicker northward or northeastward turn.
  • The ICON model’s trough seems slightly less deep than in previous runs, which might slow down the storm’s turn to the northeast compared to the Euro. This could delay the landfall slightly or push the storm more inland over the central Gulf Coast.
The GFS ridge to the east is slightly weaker, which allows the storm to take a more westerly path into the Gulf. In contrast, both the ECMWF and ICON models show a strong blocking ridge, restricting the storm's movement eastward and funneling it into the Gulf. The ICON ridge in this updated run is stronger than in previous frames, further limiting the storm's potential to escape eastward into the Atlantic. The ECMWF also showed a strong high-pressure system but not as intense as the ICON’s. This suggests that the ICON is leaning towards a more northerly track with limited deviation westward.

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