lexxnchloe
Member
Actually the hurricane models arent showing rapid deepening at anytime. Some slow steady pressure falls
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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
In the gate-
Hwrf now 984....was 970
Hmon now 974.....was 966
Hafs-a now 989.....was 945
Hafs-b now 988.....was 951
But don't get to happy. Hmon at 930 on approach. Similar to 12z Hwrf.
Hwrf now 984....was 970
Hmon now 974.....was 966
Hafs-a now 989.....was 945
Hafs-b now 988.....was 951
But don't get to happy. Hmon at 930 on approach. Similar to 12z Hwrf.
lexxnchloe
Member
I suspect they are picking up on the increased shear from the east pac cane
never doubt the euro
Brent
Member
It should be noted that Opal was moving at 35 mph
This will be fast but not that fast. Of course Opal was only around 120 at landfall too(it weakened a lot in the final hours) so the real question is does this get to the higher end still
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
HMON actually stronger over land this run than 12Z
Carolina Sky
Member
It hasn't even formed yet. I wouldn't doubt anything the way hurricanes have streghtened quickly in the Gulf and continue to streghten up to landfall the past few years.
HugeSnowStick
Member
8PM ,,,no change
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No. In the Yucatan channel it should be getting going. Anything before that is bad news.
Henry2326
Member
18z Hwrf.....same result as 12z, but 6 hours slower.
Carolina Sky
Member
Cat 4
Stormsfury
Member
Eastern Pacific John to make landfall within the next 12 to 18 hours I believe. Embedded within the monsoon trough.
Honestly believe this could be foreshadowing of what PTC 9 MIGHT be capable up once it's consolidated, and it sure looks like the MLC is tightening up. Actually may be dragging the LLC closer or a reformation may be underway.
Honestly believe this could be foreshadowing of what PTC 9 MIGHT be capable up once it's consolidated, and it sure looks like the MLC is tightening up. Actually may be dragging the LLC closer or a reformation may be underway.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think honestly just a bit slower more than anything
accu35
Member
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Yeah and west
HugeSnowStick
Member
8PM, no change to the east.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Track only changes every 6 hours
Snow_chaser
Member
I know there will be fluctuations in the forecasted track, but doesn’t the NHC have a pretty good track record of being pretty close? I imagine they don’t like to flip flop on tracks?
HugeSnowStick
Member
If there was a major change they would have updated.
jeremyt
Member
Agreed! NHC the past few (maybe 10 or so) years has been very conservative and won’t make changes to the location or intensity forecast unless they have to. They obviously know a lot more and have access to more than we do and don’t shift run to run unless warranted!