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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

jeremyt said:
Agreed! NHC the past few (maybe 10 or so) years has been very conservative and won’t make changes to the location or intensity forecast unless they have to. They obviously know a lot more and have access to more than we do and don’t shift run to run unless warranted!
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Exactly. Track usually isn't a question much it's all about intensity if anything is going to be way off

And yeah they have models we've never heard of...
 
Honestly at this point the NHC is usually never that far off inside 3-4 days where we are now. Probably at most 50-100 miles. So if you're expecting some massive track change yeah it's probably not happening until it gets well inland at least. You can probably bank on landfall between Panama City and Tampa at this point

Go back and look at past storms on the NHC website they have all the graphics there ... They nailed Debby and Francine at this range just this year
 
Stormsfury said:
Eastern Pacific John to make landfall within the next 12 to 18 hours I believe. Embedded within the monsoon trough.

Honestly believe this could be foreshadowing of what PTC 9 MIGHT be capable up once it's consolidated, and it sure looks like the MLC is tightening up. Actually may be dragging the LLC closer or a reformation may be underway.
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That MLC is looking stout and if the LLC is being pulled underneath or reforming there, yes sir watch out. In fact, if this gets stacked tonight in the area of that MLC that's east of most model initialization. Although I doubt that changes the track that much but certainly could be a RI issue
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Looking at the forecast cone it shows that it will be a tropical storm in about 5 hours. Does that seem a bit early ?
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If the vertical stack happens before dawn, then this storm will be stronger.

Edit.

I am not sure what we were seeing at 18z, especially with the much slower strengthening but ending up the same inland. My best guess, right now, is to assume 00z guidance tonight might go back to faster strengthening.. but with that said, the 00z by tomorrow night and 12z into Wednesday morning will be what we need to see the most.
 
MOV8-4.09L.GIF
 
I'd like to note that there is very little in the way (if any) on the satellite in regards to lightning in the banding setting up. When this thing is going to take off, we will start seeing more instability and lightning flashes as it starts to finally wrap up.
 
Brent said:
Honestly at this point the NHC is usually never that far off inside 3-4 days where we are now. Probably at most 50-100 miles. So if you're expecting some massive track change yeah it's probably not happening until it gets well inland at least. You can probably bank on landfall between Panama City and Tampa at this point

Go back and look at past storms on the NHC website they have all the graphics there ... They nailed Debby and Francine at this range just this year
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The last major change within 3 days I remember is with Katrina. On that Friday morning it was forecast to hit Florida a 2nd time. At 5pm that day they changed the forecast to Louisiana. It came ashore the next Monday morning south of New Orleans.
 
The 12z euro paints 5 inches here Randolph county. 18z GFS swung the tongue east a good bit. Now paints 5 here as well. Some could be rain next day or 2. Its between now and Saturday im tracking for my area, Back Yard
 
Brent said:
Honestly at this point the NHC is usually never that far off inside 3-4 days where we are now. Probably at most 50-100 miles. So if you're expecting some massive track change yeah it's probably not happening until it gets well inland at least. You can probably bank on landfall between Panama City and Tampa at this point

Go back and look at past storms on the NHC website they have all the graphics there ... They nailed Debby and Francine at this range just this year
Click to expand...
Hurricane Ian in 2022 was probably the last "big" miss for NHC, the image below was on Sept. 25th and 3 days later it made landfall around Fort Myers (just north of FM but in southern part of state). Although to be fair, it was right on the eastern edge of the cone and due to angle of the coast that couple hundred mile miss to the east was costly along the coastline of Fl

***NOT CURRENT***
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