JHS
Member
And farther east by about 75 miles too.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
JHS
Member
It is already stronger than it ever got at 18z and is still mostly over land. I'm not sure I buy that.
Belle Lechat
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jeremyt
Member
Brent
Member
Yeah the problem with the Ian angle is literally 10 miles off the track was 50 miles further south. But usually if they go off track at all it's to the east too. Like I can't remember any that went west... Even Katrina ended up east of New Orleans
JHS
Member
This looks like it is going to be bad. down to 968MB at 54 and slightly east.
The ULL over the extreme NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Penisula that has been imparting southwesterly shear is exiting stage left. As that feature moves away, the shear will abate and instead, the flow around the ULL will become another outflow channel while the storm is still in the NW Caribbean.
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Water Vapor Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits
Western Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com
The ULL over the extreme NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Penisula that has been imparting southwesterly shear is exiting stage left. As that feature moves away, the shear will abate and instead, the flow around the ULL will become another outflow channel while the storm is still in the NW Caribbean.
Water Vapor Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits
Western Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Loop
Those clouds popping south of what will eventually be the center (who knows where actually) is telling enough.
It's about time frens.
HugeSnowStick
Member
Taking away that "M" is a mistake, IMO. Going to give the public whiplash. Should have kept it through tomorrow afternoon.
Yeah it's an M between the last 2 H plots but if you just look at the map without details, then yeah problematic imho
For sure. The local newscasters will have a clean-up to do tonight.
"It should be noted that
the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving
inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane
strength at landfall."
The general public only look at that map. It's up to the apps and news to cover the important parts, I guess. I'm a weather nerd and didn't even catch that.
Incorrect. Read the NHC discussion posted above, still expected to be a major at landfall. It's just not forecasted on their specific 12 hr plots on this advisory. And this is why they need to revamp their maps, public advisories for better notification
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not to mention there's so many unknowns and we've barely seen a large enough sample of a large pool of runs to know what it'll do for certain intensity wise. I'd be concerned if the last run set was a blip and 0Z brings things back up.
I whole heartedly believe 18z was wonky and we are going to see the stronger runs coming back in.
Side note. It's hilarious how we try to forecast what the models will try and forecast. We need help.
SnowwxAtl
Member
Looking a little deeper into the model runs, I definitely wouldn’t rule you guys in NC out for seeing impact.
There are two known biases with the models and they stick around every year. One, the models are nearly always too fast with shortwaves as they dig into the the plains states or come out of the SW or they are too flat and amp closer to verification thus we have our dreaded NW trend. This trend hasn’t started yet and may not.
The second bias is the models always, and I mean always rush the trough out of the NE too fast and that trough ALWAYS trends slower. The Euro is showing this very thing which the Euro AI is also showing but ahead of the Euro OP. If my memory is correct this reason is why Ian turned quicker into FL than forecast.
Watch and see which trend takes over. If the slower or more amped ULL solution takes over; the storm will trend west. If the other solution continues, expect a definite more right movement probably into NC.
There are two known biases with the models and they stick around every year. One, the models are nearly always too fast with shortwaves as they dig into the the plains states or come out of the SW or they are too flat and amp closer to verification thus we have our dreaded NW trend. This trend hasn’t started yet and may not.
The second bias is the models always, and I mean always rush the trough out of the NE too fast and that trough ALWAYS trends slower. The Euro is showing this very thing which the Euro AI is also showing but ahead of the Euro OP. If my memory is correct this reason is why Ian turned quicker into FL than forecast.
Watch and see which trend takes over. If the slower or more amped ULL solution takes over; the storm will trend west. If the other solution continues, expect a definite more right movement probably into NC.