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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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ForsythSnow said:
Too many icon and HAFS A postings skew the reality all models have been coming west slowly that we're east. I'm expecting the brunt of the storm here or N GA between the training storms and the gusts as the eye approaches its going to be rough.
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Worst case keeps getting worser for ATL and GA 400 corridor
 
ForsythSnow said:
Too many icon and HAFS A postings skew the reality all models have been coming west slowly that we're east. I'm expecting the brunt of the storm here or N GA between the training storms and the gusts as the eye approaches its going to be rough
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Among other things, what's unusual about this storm is the highest rainfall totals look to be near and to the west of the track while the strongest winds will of course be on the east side.
 
Obviously the 0z spaghetti plots have shifted west. However they are all still with the cone of error that the NHC has kept fairly close to the same ever since they first started issuing advisories. Another thing to keep in mind is that it has seemed the last couple years that storms have wanted to follow closer to the right side of those plots. There is still a lot of real estate for this storm to cover so I would certainly expect shifts either way
 
Arcc said:
I’m not real sold on a really high intensity at landfall. Cat 3 probably, but this is a perfect scenario for unforeseen shear and the huge amount of dry air in the gulf to crush the core as it approaches.
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There’s not a lot of dry in the Gulf right now by the looks of the water vapor image. Definitely not anywhere close to what was showing yesterday. It looks like John might have pushed some moisture into the Gulf
 
Chazwin said:
There’s not a lot of dry in the Gulf right now by the looks of the water vapor image. Definitely not anywhere close to what was showing yesterday. It looks like John might have pushed some moisture into the Gulf
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Not yet, but there will be as the ULL pumps it down. If the storm keeps a strong core, it could hold the dry air out, but it could do a number on the storm if it penetrates.

1727230655987.png
 
Arcc said:
Not yet, but there will be as the ULL pumps it down. If the storm keeps a strong core, it could hold the dry air out, but it could do a number on the storm if it penetrates.

View attachment 151698
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Very true. However typically a larger storms often will hold dry air away from the core better than smaller ones
 
Arcc said:
I’m not real sold on a really high intensity at landfall. Cat 3 probably, but this is a perfect scenario for unforeseen shear and the huge amount of dry air in the gulf to crush the core as it approaches.
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I almost wonder if it's too big to really bomb out(I'm talking about the Cat 5 stuff...) I'm forseeing a very large Cat 3 tbh
 
AJ1013 said:
Yeah, I've seen that said on here, but why does that cause such an absurd positive feedback loop that produces these outlandish results? I don't see anything remotely comparable on other models.
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To be honest I don't know I just have always been told it's not a tropical model 🤣 because this happens every storm. It's become a running joke actually
 
Arcc said:
I’m not real sold on a really high intensity at landfall. Cat 3 probably, but this is a perfect scenario for unforeseen shear and the huge amount of dry air in the gulf to crush the core as it approaches.
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I don't think shear or dry air will be a big issue- i think that this is more a risk for long track cape verde systems that have huge eyes and hollowed out cores by the time they reach the coast. for storms like helene that are slightly more homegrown, their core is still pretty fresh and they haven't really been at risk of any eye wall replacement cycles, which is where shear and dry air can really begin to exert a toll. also helps that helene is going to be moving so fast. should be landfalling in 48ish hours.
 
Brent said:
I almost wonder if it's too big to really bomb out(I'm talking about the Cat 5 stuff...) I'm forseeing a very large Cat 3 tbh
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Could very well be which maybe why the HMON and HWRF are around 95-100kts st landfall despite the lower than normal pressures.

Although you can definitely see the dry air trying to intrude.

1727232474422.gif
 
ILMRoss said:
I don't think shear or dry air will be a big issue- i think that this is more a risk for long track cape verde systems that have huge eyes and hollowed out cores by the time they reach the coast. for storms like helene that are slightly more homegrown, their core is still pretty fresh and they haven't really been at risk of any eye wall replacement cycles, which is where shear and dry air can really begin to exert a toll. also helps that helene is going to be moving so fast. should be landfalling in 48ish hours.
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Still early on this but if it can gain strength and consolidate I could see it going east. Not saying far east but a little east adjusted. Will be nice to see a final solution in a day or two and what the results are. Wish everyone in the path the best!
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HELENE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES
 
ILMRoss said:
I don't think shear or dry air will be a big issue- i think that this is more a risk for long track cape verde systems that have huge eyes and hollowed out cores by the time they reach the coast. for storms like helene that are slightly more homegrown, their core is still pretty fresh and they haven't really been at risk of any eye wall replacement cycles, which is where shear and dry air can really begin to exert a toll. also helps that helene is going to be moving so fast. should be landfalling in 48ish hours.
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I don’t know I’ve seen it happen quite a lot with gulf systems. Obviously Lili in 2002 was the most dramatic, but the latest example would been Idalia last year.
 
“Over the next couple of days, Helene will be moving through an environment of low vertical wind shear, ample environmental moisture, and over waters of high oceanic heat content. Thus, significant strengthening is anticipated before landfall on the northeast Gulf coast. The NHC intensity forecast explicitly shows steady to rapid intensification (RI) of 25 kt for the next 24 hours
and 30 kt for the 24- to 48-hour forecast interval. This is in general agreement with the SHIPS RI indices.

Helene is predicted to grow to a very large size in the NHC forecast. Therefore storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast
cone, particularly on the east side. In addition, the fast forward speed while it crosses the coast will likely result in farther inland penetration of strong winds over parts of the southeastern United States after landfall.”
 
jeremyt said:
Still early on this but if it can gain strength and consolidate I could see it going east. Not saying far east but a little east adjusted. Will be nice to see a final solution in a day or two and what the results are. Wish everyone in the path the best!
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typically i'm pretty sensitive to little trends and shifts and things like that, but models have been pretty locked in on the big bend for 5 or so model runs now and helene seems to be following intensity models pretty closely. so far i'm not noticing any deviations. however, outflow looks great, cloud tops are very cold and seems like it's got it's feet under it, if there's going to be a time this storm smokes guidance it is in the next 24 hours
 
Arcc said:
I don’t know I’ve seen it happen quite a lot with gulf systems. Obviously Lili in 2002 was the most dramatic, but the latest example would been Idalia last year.
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I remember this being a big talking about in the mystery during the Major Hurricane Drought Era- Ike was another poster child for this. But i think that Harvey, Laura, Michael, Ida, Ian have really smashed this notion. Not saying it won't happen because there is a lot of dry air around but I don't think it will have enough time to intrude and disrupt the storm
 
AJ1013 said:
Yeah, I've seen that said on here, but why does that cause such an absurd positive feedback loop that produces these outlandish results? I don't see anything remotely comparable on other models.
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There's nothing to stop the convective process on the model within the systems local environment so it just keeps forming new convection and driving the pressure lower and tightening the circulation. If you loop the 0z run it starts getting into an environment with less SB Cape on the last few hours before landfall and the sfc pressures start creeping up
 
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