Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[mrdaddyman]

Well, that's interesting.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Not enough time to get to a cat 5 I don’t think

Michael and Ian are the only thing making me not agree. It really depends on storm structure and how fast it organizes. Modeling indicates it's a hurricane when it reaches the gulf, so if it isn't, it'll be weaker than a 4 .

 

[Stevo24]

As my experience I've been tracking storm since 2000 I must say this is going to be a cat 3 moving very fast I don't see this getting a cat 5 or 4

Cat 4 pushing 5 easy. Bet on it

 

[Cold Wrather Fan]

Not enough time to get to a cat 5 I don’t think

Then Charley rapidly intensified, strengthening from a 110 mph (175 km/h) hurricane with a minimum central barometric pressure of 965 mbar (965 hPa; 28.5 inHg) to a 145 mph (235 km/h) hurricane with a pressure of 947 mbar (947 hPa; 28.0 inHg) in just three hours. It

 

[Snowfan]

 

[jrips27]

ULL is deeper but slower on the GFS through 60.

 

[ForsythSnow]

ULL is deeper but slower on the GFS through 60.

If I'm taking a guess, it'll be further west this run since the ULL and storm will begin pivoting sooner. Already a touch west prior than 6Z.

As of 84 it's already on land but still 30 or so miles NW.

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Looks like that ULL is anchoring down over Texarkana....meanwhile, Helene is going to stop by & see if she can get on @ Augusta National on hr 93

 

[Henry2326]

12z Icon and GFS on point...Icon gets these faster and weaker.



.

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

If I'm taking a guess, it'll be further west this run since the ULL and storm will begin pivoting sooner. Already a touch west prior than 6Z.

As of 84 it's already on land but still 30 or so miles NW.

I thought it would have too. There was a little more separation between the ULL and the storm allowing the NNE movement to continue on this run.

 

[weatherboyy]

Cat 4 pushing 5 easy. Bet on it

I bet you're a cookie don't get a cat 5 or cat 4

 

[jaymackd3]

Anyone have the recon link, please?

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Recon link

 

[jaymackd3]

Aircraft Reconnaissance | Tropical Tidbits

Live updating recon data for the Atlantic basin

www.tropicaltidbits.com

Recon link

Thank you very much!

 

[GaWx]

12z UKMET: similar to 0Z with landfall just E of Apalachicola ~midnight Thu night moving NNE into S GA then curls back NNW into N GA just S of Atlanta

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 82.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2024 0 16.7N 82.2W 1006 25
0000UTC 24.09.2024 12 18.6N 82.2W 1004 33
1200UTC 24.09.2024 24 18.6N 84.6W 1003 34
0000UTC 25.09.2024 36 19.1N 84.6W 1000 38
1200UTC 25.09.2024 48 20.6N 85.1W 997 46
0000UTC 26.09.2024 60 22.8N 85.4W 992 46
1200UTC 26.09.2024 72 25.3N 85.5W 988 48
0000UTC 27.09.2024 84 28.5N 85.0W 984 53
1200UTC 27.09.2024 96 33.2N 83.9W 988 36
0000UTC 28.09.2024 108 38.1N 85.2W 996 33
1200UTC 28.09.2024 120 39.1N 91.0W 999 26
0000UTC 29.09.2024 132 39.0N 92.2W 1003 13
1200UTC 29.09.2024 144 CEASED TRACKING

 

[SASQUATCH]

I've always thought a decent projection, as far as placement, was to take the UKMET and the EURO from about 2 to 3 days out and determine the median between those two.

 

[NCSNOW]

 

[HugeSnowStick]

View attachment 151511

LOL,That hole over ATL makes no sense whatsoever...