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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

PTC likely later this morning

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rains over portions of Central America during the next several days.
Interests in the northwestern Caribbean, the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and western Cuba should closely monitor the progress of this
system, as watches or warnings will likely be required later
this morning for portions of these areas. Later this week, the
system is forecast to move generally northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, and interests along the northern and northeastern
Gulf Coast should also closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
Morning satellite clearly shows a LL circulation about 100 miles WSW of Jamaica with convection beginning to fire right over the COC.

I'll be servicing the generator today even here east of Atlanta given the near-unanimous model forecast of a high-end cane at landfall moving briskly to my latitude.
www.tropicaltidbits.com

Satellite Loop for | Tropical Tidbits

Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 
got a bachelor party in duck this weekend, it was the one weekend i didn't want anything to happen so sufficed to say i'm pretty pissed

edit: so i bring some analysis instead of just whining and moaning- seen some people being surprised at the ceiling the 0zs are showing, but it's going through rich OHC waters and will have a great upper level situation, and recent precedent w ian/michael/laura/ida, honestly sky is the limit. florida insurance market could collapse depending on where this hits
 
SnowwxAtl said:
Possible but very very extreme to me. I think the models are overdoing it by alot...just my opinion.
Click to expand...
HAFS B and HWRF seem to lean tiny initial eye and EWRC mid-gulf while the HMON and HAFS A never replace the eyewall or prepares for one and intensifies at landfall. Either way, the pressure is going to drop like a rock unless something isn't being modeled correctly.
 
HugeSnowStick said:
Simply curious, why do you think so?
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To be honest, I have no data to show you or anything, but just a gut feeling that it will probably be a Cat 1 or 2 and will be alittle more east of what some of the models are depicting. Is wishful thinking apart of this? Of course but to see that map that you posted had 248 mph wind gust I believe and cut by 20% to 30% equal around 180 to 200 mph. I just don't see it. It is a fast mover. I am just nervous that it is Monday and we still don't have a clear indication where Helene is going at this point.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
To be honest, I have no data to show you or anything, but just a gut feeling that it will probably be a Cat 1 or 2 and will be alittle more east of what some of the models are depicting. Is wishful thinking apart of this? Of course but to see that map that you posted had 248 mph wind gust I believe and cut by 20% to 30% equal around 180 to 200 mph. I just don't see it. It is a fast mover. I am just nervous that it is Monday and we still don't have a clear indication where Helene is going at this point.
Click to expand...

248 kph, not mph.
 
ForsythSnow said:
HAFS B and HWRF seem to lean tiny initial eye and EWRC mid-gulf while the HMON and HAFS A never replace the eyewall or prepares for one and intensifies at landfall. Either way, the pressure is going to drop like a rock unless something isn't being modeled correctly.
Click to expand...
That would mean that every hurricane models has it wrong. I haven't seen that happen, and if you've read any of my posts, you know I lean with the HWRF. The weather community should be screaming right now. If you live between Mobile and Tampa, have a plan to leave.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
To be honest, I have no data to show you or anything, but just a gut feeling that it will probably be a Cat 1 or 2 and will be alittle more east of what some of the models are depicting. Is wishful thinking apart of this? Of course but to see that map that you posted had 248 mph wind gust I believe and cut by 20% to 30% equal around 180 to 200 mph. I just don't see it. It is a fast mover. I am just nervous that it is Monday and we still don't have a clear indication where Helene is going at this point.
Click to expand...
That was in kilometers. Multiply by 0.621 to get MPH
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Morning satellite clearly shows a LL circulation about 100 miles WSW of Jamaica with convection beginning to fire right over the COC.

I'll be servicing the generator today even here east of Atlanta given the near-unanimous model forecast of a high-end cane at landfall moving briskly to my latitude.
www.tropicaltidbits.com

Satellite Loop for | Tropical Tidbits

Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
Click to expand...

I’m west of you, but I’m gonna crank mine tonight. Honestly, just fixed my shop and tool shed on Friday from the 70mph thunderstorm winds a month ago. I don’t need more wind damage. The trees are still full of green foliage as well.
 
SnowwxAtl said:
To be honest, I have no data to show you or anything, but just a gut feeling that it will probably be a Cat 1 or 2 and will be alittle more east of what some of the models are depicting. Is wishful thinking apart of this? Of course but to see that map that you posted had 248 mph wind gust I believe and cut by 20% to 30% equal around 180 to 200 mph. I just don't see it. It is a fast mover. I am just nervous that it is Monday and we still don't have a clear indication where Helene is going at this point.
Click to expand...
No, not wishful thinking. I didn't post that wind map either, and it was in kilometers per hour which equates to about 154 miles per hour.
 
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