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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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It is already stronger than it ever got at 18z and is still mostly over land. I'm not sure I buy that.
 
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JHS said:
It is already stronger than it ever got at 18z and is still mostly over land. I'm not sure I buy that.
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I wouldn't buy it either, it's the NAM, it's horrendous with TC plus it's just getting into it's grid @42 lol
 
Metwannabe said:
Hurricane Ian in 2022 was probably the last "big" miss for NHC, the image below was on Sept. 25th and 3 days later it made landfall around Fort Myers (just north of FM but in southern part of state). Although to be fair, it was right on the eastern edge of the cone and due to angle of the coast that couple hundred mile miss to the east was costly along the coastline of Fl

***NOT CURRENT***
View attachment 151563
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Yeah the problem with the Ian angle is literally 10 miles off the track was 50 miles further south. But usually if they go off track at all it's to the east too. Like I can't remember any that went west... Even Katrina ended up east of New Orleans
 
The ULL over the extreme NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Penisula that has been imparting southwesterly shear is exiting stage left. As that feature moves away, the shear will abate and instead, the flow around the ULL will become another outflow channel while the storm is still in the NW Caribbean.
www.tropicaltidbits.com

Water Vapor Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits

Western Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
The ULL over the extreme NW Caribbean and the Yucatan Penisula that has been imparting southwesterly shear is exiting stage left. As that feature moves away, the shear will abate and instead, the flow around the ULL will become another outflow channel while the storm is still in the NW Caribbean.
www.tropicaltidbits.com

Water Vapor Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits

Western Atlantic Water Vapor Satellite Loop
www.tropicaltidbits.com www.tropicaltidbits.com
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Those clouds popping south of what will eventually be the center (who knows where actually) is telling enough.

It's about time frens.
 
Shawn said:
Taking away that "M" is a mistake, IMO. Going to give the public whiplash. Should have kept it through tomorrow afternoon.
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Yeah it's an M between the last 2 H plots but if you just look at the map without details, then yeah problematic imho
 
Shawn said:
Taking away that "M" is a mistake, IMO. Going to give the public whiplash. Should have kept it through tomorrow afternoon.
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For sure. The local newscasters will have a clean-up to do tonight.
"It should be noted that
the 72-hour forecast allows for a little weakening after moving
inland, so the cyclone is still expected to be at major hurricane
strength at landfall."
 
Metwannabe said:
Yeah it's an M between the last 2 H plots but if you just look at the map without details, then yeah problematic imho
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The general public only look at that map. It's up to the apps and news to cover the important parts, I guess. I'm a weather nerd and didn't even catch that.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Looks like it is officially no longer expected to be a major at landfall. Great news.
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Incorrect. Read the NHC discussion posted above, still expected to be a major at landfall. It's just not forecasted on their specific 12 hr plots on this advisory. And this is why they need to revamp their maps, public advisories for better notification
 
Metwannabe said:
Incorrect. Read the NHC discussion posted above, still expected to be a major at landfall. It's just not forecasted on their specific 12 hr plots on this advisory. And this is why they need to revamp their maps, public advisories for better notification
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Not to mention there's so many unknowns and we've barely seen a large enough sample of a large pool of runs to know what it'll do for certain intensity wise. I'd be concerned if the last run set was a blip and 0Z brings things back up.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not to mention there's so many unknowns and we've barely seen a large enough sample of a large pool of runs to know what it'll do for certain intensity wise. I'd be concerned if the last run set was a blip and 0Z brings things back up.
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I whole heartedly believe 18z was wonky and we are going to see the stronger runs coming back in.

Side note. It's hilarious how we try to forecast what the models will try and forecast. We need help.
 
Looking a little deeper into the model runs, I definitely wouldn’t rule you guys in NC out for seeing impact.

There are two known biases with the models and they stick around every year. One, the models are nearly always too fast with shortwaves as they dig into the the plains states or come out of the SW or they are too flat and amp closer to verification thus we have our dreaded NW trend. This trend hasn’t started yet and may not.

The second bias is the models always, and I mean always rush the trough out of the NE too fast and that trough ALWAYS trends slower. The Euro is showing this very thing which the Euro AI is also showing but ahead of the Euro OP. If my memory is correct this reason is why Ian turned quicker into FL than forecast.

Watch and see which trend takes over. If the slower or more amped ULL solution takes over; the storm will trend west. If the other solution continues, expect a definite more right movement probably into NC.
 
Despite the weaker trend in the models the shift to the east along with the storm size (which is being depicted as large) means we still might get somewhat significant impacts here.
 
Canadian is much slower than its 12z run and the GFS

At 75 hours it’s still over water whereas the 12z was over Atlanta by then
 
The system still has about 36 hours to traverse the simmering NW Caribbean Sea. I have difficulty believing we don't see substantial intensification before it hits the GOM. That part of the basin is notorious for RI.
 
Fujiwhara with the cut off and Helene. How much Helene influences the cut off to go west determines where Helene goes between the cutoff and the ridge to her east.
gfs_z500aNorm_eus_fh0-84.gif
 
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