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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

Chazwin said:
That does seem a bit odd looking. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a gulf storm turn back to the west that sharply once inland.
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Didn't that last one swing all the way back to Arkansas before dissipating?
 
Brent said:
IF that upper low is in the right spot it would turn NW View attachment 151467
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Yes. This is the pattern that is bad.for the east coast when the ULL is over Georgia and the cane off the east coast. It pulls it into the coast. In this case the pattern is setup.perfect fo that scenario just further west.
 
Shaggy said:
Yes. This is the pattern that is bad.for the east coast when the ULL is over Georgia and the cane off the east coast. It pulls it into the coast. In this case the pattern is setup.perfect fo that scenario just further west.
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Yes I believe that's how Hugo hit SC when most of the other ones usually ride more up the coast
 
J.C. said:
Didn't that last one swing all the way back to Arkansas before dissipating?
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Big difference with that one was it coming in further west and it moved NW toward Arkansas which isn’t unheard of. I was referring more to how the models are showing that almost due west movement once the center is over the Tennessee Valley. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen that
 
Looks like the GFS will be east of 18z if I had to guess. Not sure how much. The ULL is further east through 60
 
It seems like a straight shot north once it hits the gulf up until landfall. Wonder how far west it goes through the channel before turning will make a big difference from BB to Pensacola
 
0Z UKMET vs 12Z is perhaps slightly E/2 mb stronger (985) with landfall near Apalachicola late Thu evening and then to Atlanta midday Fri:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.8N 83.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2024 24 18.8N 83.0W 1002 32
1200UTC 24.09.2024 36 18.9N 84.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 25.09.2024 48 19.7N 85.1W 999 38
1200UTC 25.09.2024 60 21.6N 86.2W 996 41
0000UTC 26.09.2024 72 23.4N 86.3W 992 44
1200UTC 26.09.2024 84 25.9N 85.3W 988 52
0000UTC 27.09.2024 96 29.2N 84.8W 985 46
1200UTC 27.09.2024 108 33.1N 84.1W 990 32
0000UTC 28.09.2024 120 36.7N 85.4W 998 19
1200UTC 28.09.2024 132 39.2N 87.9W 1003 24
0000UTC 29.09.2024 144 39.8N 92.2W 1007 13
1200UTC 29.09.2024 156 CEASED T
 
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