Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS, with upper low being 250 miles E of 18Z, has its mean storm landfall 175 miles E of the 18Z’s Pensacola or just E of Apalachicola. The mean then instead of going NNW through AL travels N into SW GA. So, more/fewer members than last run in GA/AL although AL still has a decent # of members.

 

[jrips27]

0z HAFS-B gets down to 914mb on approacho

 

[GaWx]

Unlike GFS/Icon, the 0Z Euro doesn’t appear to be shifting E….at least so far vs the 18Z. Upper low not shifted E like on those. Landfall Apalachicola late Thu afternoon at 982. It goes near AL/GA line (W of ATL) vs though ATL on 12Z. So, some W shift.

 

[jrips27]

The hurricane models have gone next level at 0z. Looks like all 4 of the HWRF, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and HMON are sub 930mb at some point. Was not expecting this level of a ceiling

 

[Brent]

Better hope these models are on drugs

Again ive heard they can be way off at this stage

 

[jrips27]

Kinda wild to think we may be dealing with a major hurricane making landfall in 3.5 days. Hope people can get prepared if that comes to fruition. Goodnight all! Gonna be hurting at work tomorrow after staying up this late lol

Red alert at 2AM. 70/90 odds

 

[weatherboyy]

Better hope these models are on drugs

Again ive heard they can be way off at this stageView attachment 151475

I don't see that happen model sometimes overdo it imo

 

[GaWx]

Euro ens: only very slight E shift and slightly faster; mean landfall is Apalachicola Thu evening; then it goes N into far W GA and then NNW into NE AL. W of GEFS mean.

 

[Stevo24]

Euro ens: only very slight E shift and slightly faster; mean landfall is Apalachicola Thu evening; then it goes N into far W GA and then NNW into NE AL. W of GEFS mean.

Euro has been playing catch-up this entire time so it will probably go East soon.

 

[ForsythSnow]

GEFS looks west of 0Z this time around with consensus generally around Apalachicola

 

[Henry2326]

HMON 00z is 909 outside of Tampa with landfall north of there.
I've watched hurricane models for awhile now and have never seen this situation with them all bottoming out. Couldn't sleep last night knowing the possibility that millions could be tragically impacted on Friday.

 

[Henry2326]

06z GFS east.....942
06z ICON east.....963.....icon pretty good with placement but not so good with pressure, IMO

 

[bigdawg3]

Don’t look at the 06z HAFS-B

 

[Henry2326]

Don’t look at the 06z HAFS-B

Geez....917 at landfall

 

[HugeSnowStick]

Geez....917 at landfall

View attachment 151481

27.08 inches of mercury...wow.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Here is the latest update from James Spann

Hurricane Helene Likely To Form In The Gulf This Week : The Alabama Weather Blog

www.alabamawx.com

 

[DustinWx]

There’s a lot of talk on storm2k regarding shear late in the period, in the northern gulf.

Haven’t we seen in other cases where shear helps tighten up or even strengthen certain hurricanes as they near the coast? (Michael maybe)

 

[Stevo24]

There’s a lot of talk on storm2k regarding shear late in the period, in the northern gulf.

Haven’t we seen in other cases where shear helps tighten up or even strengthen certain hurricanes as they near the coast? (Michael maybe)

Yes

 

[Arcc]

There’s a lot of talk on storm2k regarding shear late in the period, in the northern gulf.

Haven’t we seen in other cases where shear helps tighten up or even strengthen certain hurricanes as they near the coast? (Michael maybe)

Depends on the orientation of the shear and the direction of the storm movement.

 

[Belle Lechat]

Also from Mike's Weather Page facebook

Wednesday feeder bands possible into Florida. Tornado Warnings likely for the peninsula even if it goes north. And then after landfall northward serious impacts remain. Michael had CAT 3 winds into GA/AL. This will be moving fast giving less time to weaken northward. Even if it goes NW after landfall could still some wide reaching impacts towards the east coast.

Hurricane Hunters are heading in today. Steering currents are solid. High pressure to the east looks to kick it west after landfall.