Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[Arcc]

Don't hurricanes usually weaken when they get to the Northern Gulf this time of year ? I know Opal weakened pretty substantially before landfall.

In the past yes, but in the last ten years, no. Michael, Laura, Ida and Ian were either strengthening or staying steady at landfall.

 

[GaWx]

Don't hurricanes usually weaken when they get to the Northern Gulf this time of year ? I know Opal weakened pretty substantially before landfall.

It varies depending on things like shear, dry air, and SSTs. But SSTs are AN/84 near the coast, not cool enough for much, if any, weakening. Models are currently hardly weakening it at all til landfall.

 

[jrips27]

 

[lexxnchloe]

 

[J.C.]

It varies depending on things like shear, dry air, and SSTs. But SSTs are AN/84 near the coast, not cool enough for much, if any, weakening. Models are currently hardly weakening it at all til landfall.

And there has been so little disruption for so long to mix the water. Nothing but a giant ridge heating the gulf for months now.

 

[DustinWx]

Don't hurricanes usually weaken when they get to the Northern Gulf this time of year ? I know Opal weakened pretty substantially before landfall.

1. Michael
2. Ian
3. Laura
4. Ida
5. Etc

 

[DustinWx]

Webber mentions potential for shear coming from 10e in EPAC impacting early development

 

[BHS1975]

Webber mentions potential for shear coming from 10e in EPAC impacting early development

Yeap it's blowing up.


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[Brent]

1. Michael
2. Ian
3. Laura
4. Ida
5. Eta

Harvey started it...

But yeah 10-E is something to watch too to see if it has any impact

 

[lexxnchloe]

Euro 5 mb stronger than 12Z

 

[BHS1975]

ICON looks tame.


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[Henry2326]

If it was just one, maybe overdone.....but all of them??

 

[Brent]

If it was just one, maybe overdone.....but all of them??

Use caution til we have a center

 

[Henry2326]

Use caution til we have a center

Last time that happened it was Michael.....and we know how that ended.

 

[Chazwin]

Don't hurricanes usually weaken when they get to the Northern Gulf this time of year ? I know Opal weakened pretty substantially before landfall.

Michael strengthened right up until landfall. A lot of it depends on if an EWRC takes place and it’s timing

 

[Storm5]

 

[Snowlover34]

Regardless how big of an impact this potential storm may bring sections still in the southeast can use the rain.

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

Regardless how big of an impact this potential storm may bring sections still in the southeast can use the rain.

I'm encouraged by the NW turn inland that's showing up pretty consistently. Hoping I end up on the wet side.

 

[Stevo24]

I'm encouraged by the NW turn inland that's showing up pretty consistently. Hoping I end up on the wet side.

I’ll actually be surprised if that verifies as much as depicted

 

[Chazwin]

I’ll actually be surprised if that verifies as much as depicted

That does seem a bit odd looking. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a gulf storm turn back to the west that sharply once inland.