Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

[JHS]

Is the NAM pretty accurate at 78 hours ?

Maybe not, but these are huge changes. I wonder if recon data may have made it into this run.

 

[BullCityWx]

And this is why getting all horned up over these mega model runs right now isn't the best idea.
I don't think anyone here is ignoring the ceiling of what this storm could be but there's an equally mediocre floor (or whatever words you want to use here). Many of these hurricane models are in the 970s low 980s roughly this time tomorrow. Might be best to wait and see what happens tonight bc right now the system doesn't look that great

Also never bet against the euro

 

[ForsythSnow]

Headed for Panama City at 78 hours on the NAM at 985MB.

Unless other models have signs it'll be weaker I'm not buying a mesoscale model this far out that doesn't even have the range for proper initialization since it's outside of N America.

 

[JHS]

Unless other models have signs it'll be weaker I'm not buying a mesoscale model this far out that doesn't even have the range for proper initialization since it's outside of N America.

That a fair point. The ICON and GFS runs coming soon will tell us more and if they go this way too it may be real.

 

[Weatherlover92]

Surpass Opal impact...

The impacts could be similar to Hurricane Irma (2017). Irma was the most recent hurricane I could think of from memory that was pretty rough.

 

[ForsythSnow]

West.

 

[jrips27]

5pm update - explicitly forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall

 

[jeremyt]

Too many are putting stock into individual deterministic runs when there isn’t even a solid COC. It could go east, it could go west. The wishcasting is strong here when people should wait. Even then there could be dramatic changes! Slow down, take a deep breath and give it 24 hours!

 

[Chazwin]

Is the NAM pretty accurate at 78 hours ?

I often times question whether the NAM is gonna be right at 8 hours. I am curious though how much if any recon data went into that model run

 

[SnowwxAtl]

5pm update - explicitly forecast to be a Major Hurricane at landfall

Take it back east Lawd!

 

[jeremyt]

I often times question whether the NAM is gonna be right at 8 hours. I am curious though how much if any recon data went into that model run

I’m willing to guess none considering the times!

 

[Ron Burgundy]

West.
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Well-called, sir

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

West.
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Hey at least you’re on the “non dirty” side of it!

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

And this is why getting all horned up over these mega model runs right now isn't the best idea.
I don't think anyone here is ignoring the ceiling of what this storm could be but there's an equally mediocre floor (or whatever words you want to use here). Many of these hurricane models are in the 970s low 980s roughly this time tomorrow. Might be best to wait and see what happens tonight bc right now the system doesn't look that great

The NAM takes a weak system over the NE Yucatan rather than shooting the channel and never really recovers.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

So is this west shift a sign of a trend or will it start shifting back east ?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Hey at least you’re on the “non dirty” side of it!

I'm getting a head-on impact which isn't good at all. The HWRF pretty much shows what we'd be getting and that's 70 to 80 mph gusts.

 

[NoSnowATL]

So is this west shift a sign of a trend or will it start shifting back east ?

it will shift back east overnight like has done the last few runs.

 

[JHS]

So is this west shift a sign of a trend or will it start shifting back east ?

The ICON should be well east. That upper low is about 200 miles northeast in this run so far.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

West.
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That track is a worst-case scenario for much of inland Georgia.

 

[HugeSnowStick]

West.
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If this comes to fruition, all of GA and the massive Metro of ATL could be crippled for days.

 

[LickWx]

I have my eyes set on a Huntsville landfall. I’d be preparing for storm surge if I was in Huntsville Alabama , this things going west until it goes west of Alabama and has to come back east

 

[Henry2326]

West.
View attachment 151540

Yep....they love TVCN.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

I'm getting a head-on impact which isn't good at all. The HWRF pretty much shows what we'd be getting and that's 70 to 80 mph gusts.

And most of it overnight. Not good.

 

[JHS]

Atlanta would be ok on the ICON, but GSP, Charlotte and Columbia would have it rough.

 

[jrips27]

18z ICON comes ashore north of Tampa

 

[Mahomeless]

it will shift back east overnight like has done the last few runs.

based on....?

 

[tractor girl]

it will shift back east overnight like has done the last few runs.

Sheer will drift it back east a bit

 

[Stevo24]

based on....?

Chill out you’ll get some rain

 

[Mahomeless]

Chill out you’ll get some rain

I hope we get nothing out of it....outdoor plans this weekend. I just find the wishcasting, based on absolutely nothing, hilarious.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

ICON brings the core of a less intense cane at landfall through the Carolinas.

Breezy and beautiful on the backside for MBY.

 

[JHS]

I do not think we know very much about this now. Both the NAM and ICON had major changes. One west and one east. I imagine the GFS will be different too.

 

[jrips27]

ICON shifts eastward a bit

View attachment 151543

That’s 12z. 18z is even further east

 

[Chazwin]

That’s 12z. 18z is even further east

Yeah the comes north of Tampa and pretty much goes straight north from there

 

[tractor girl]

ICON a lot further east. Cheers to our wishcasters in SC/NC!

 

[jeremyt]

ICON a lot further east. Cheers to our wishcasters in SC/NC!


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Being realistic that’s far from the final solution.

 

[NoSnowATL]

ICON a lot further east. Cheers to our wishcasters in SC/NC!


View attachment 151544

I guess that H over MI dies so it can keep moving NE?

 

[BullCityWx]

N of Tampa to Jacksonville to Statesboro to Lexington-ish to Rock Hill on the ICON.

972MB

 

[Shaggy]

N of Tampa to Jacksonville to Statesboro to Lexington-ish to Rock Hill on the ICON.

972MB

Is also different with the ULL being a little further north like the AI earlier. Trend worth watching

 

[Mahomeless]

ICON a lot further east. Cheers to our wishcasters in SC/NC!


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Taking the ICON at face value when it's in its medium to long range window is probably not the smartest move I've seen....unless you are just trying to troll....then its a good play. Just looking at the image you posted, the storm would almost HAVE to move hard northwest given the proximity to the ULL to its west (Fujiwhara effect).

 

[HugeSnowStick]

The ICON model is most accurate in Europe, not the US, the EURO performs the best in out neighborhood. Please guy's quit getting A boner on every model run, it's childish,