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Tropical Major Hurricane Helene

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PEA_RIDGE said:
RECON HAS 2 PLANES HEADED INTO THE PTC NOW!!
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Makes you wonder if they plan to go ahead and give it a name by morning. We are in an odd situation with formation to landfall.. not very long between the two. Easier to have media attention with a name.
 
Shawn said:
Makes you wonder if they plan to go ahead and give it a name by morning. We are in an odd situation with formation to landfall.. not very long between the two. Easier to have media attention with a name.
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Local news here has been hyping it. Wife and I were refilling our cars and gas cans at Kroger today with our .40cents off per gallon and we weren't the only ones.
 
Hurricane John in EPAC is feeding tons of moisture into PTC9 (Helene). Several models under 930mb in there 00z runs. Don't look at the NAM 3K. Cause I'll post it here for you.

na3k 00z 9.24.png
 
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0Z Euro a bit delayed in landfalling on the US vs earlier runs with 985 mb midnight Thu night Big Bend. Still 987 Athens Fri AM (hardly any weakening due to moving an avg of 25 mph!)
 
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Metwannabe said:
Hurricane Ian in 2022 was probably the last "big" miss for NHC, the image below was on Sept. 25th and 3 days later it made landfall around Fort Myers (just north of FM but in southern part of state). Although to be fair, it was right on the eastern edge of the cone and due to angle of the coast that couple hundred mile miss to the east was costly along the coastline of Fl

***NOT CURRENT***
View attachment 151563
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The UKMET model was an outlier that was far to the SE of the Euro and especially the GFS/CMC. It ended up very close days in advance. UK isn’t always the best and can be lousy just like any model is at times. But it was amazing for Ian. The Icon was second best.
 
vtrap90 said:
Hurricane John in EPAC is feeding tons of moisture into PTC9 (Helene). Several models under 930mb in there 00z runs. Don't look at the NAM 3K. Cause I'll post it here for you.

View attachment 151574
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To save the curious time looking it up,

Rita reached a peak intensity of category 5 with sustained winds of 180 mph and a minimum pressure of 895 millibars, making it the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the Gulf of Mexico.
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1727157144364.png
 
0Z UKMET: Apalachicola late Thu night then to Atlanta area in only ~12 hours due to moving on average ~25 mph!

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 81.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2024 0 18.1N 81.8W 1003 32
1200UTC 24.09.2024 12 19.7N 83.9W 1003 36
0000UTC 25.09.2024 24 19.8N 85.6W 999 36
1200UTC 25.09.2024 36 21.3N 86.4W 995 41
0000UTC 26.09.2024 48 22.9N 86.5W 992 39
1200UTC 26.09.2024 60 24.8N 86.1W 991 43
0000UTC 27.09.2024 72 28.1N 85.5W 988 52
1200UTC 27.09.2024 84 31.9N 84.8W 989 37
0000UTC 28.09.2024 96 37.0N 85.8W 994 24
1200UTC 28.09.2024 108 40.2N 90.4W 1000 25
0000UTC 29.09.2024 120 CEASED TRACKING
 
WIND SHEAR IS FIXING TO EXIT THE REGION LATER THIS AM AND FROM THERE ON OUT ITS SUCKING JET FUEL
SHEAR.png
 
AF305 HURRICANE HUNTER IS IN THE STORM NOW..

NOAA9 IS HEADED IN FOR AN UPPER-LEVEL RECON
 
MOV8-4.09L.GIF
 
Highlights at the start of the work day this morning: from the 230am GSP AFD: 1. GSP says a possible storm precursor rain event across Western NC Wednesday depending on how the flow ahead of the storm sets up. 2. Starting Thursday afternoon and overnight 4 to 7 inches of rain is likely across the area with a possible foot of rain in the mountains . Thursday night wind: 30 - 50 mph gusts possible particularly just east of the cyclone center
 
SnowwxAtl said:
It moved east again. I wouldn't be shocked at another 50 to 75 miles shift east again as the final track of the storm.
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I SEE WHAT YOU ARE REFERING TO...

HERE IS THE 11PM ADVISORY AND IT HAS THE LINE RIGHT IN THE "BIG BEND"
1.png

5 AM IS SLIGTLY AND I MEAN SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BUT AT THIS POINT NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY MATTER...
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
I SEE WHAT YOU ARE REFERING TO...

HERE IS THE 11PM ADVISORY AND IT HAS THE LINE RIGHT IN THE "BIG BEND"
View attachment 151589

5 AM IS SLIGTLY AND I MEAN SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST BUT AT THIS POINT NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY MATTER...
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That and the center line through GA moved quite a bit east as well.
 
I don't understand the arguing. Sometimes just a little more context in a post would clear things up. For instance, when you say the track has shifted one way or the other, reference your location and whether your talking LF or inland or as it relates to your backyard. A few more words could go a long way and if you want to argue take it to banter.
 
Metwannabe said:
I don't understand the arguing. Sometimes just a little more context in a post would clear things up. For instance, when you say the track has shifted one way or the other, reference your location and whether your talking LF or inland or as it relates to your backyard. A few more words could go a long way and if you want to argue take it to banter.
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Agreed. The post above is very helpful showing the two images side by side for reference. In this case, LF and Inland shifted east.
 
Metwannabe said:
I don't understand the arguing. Sometimes just a little more context in a post would clear things up. For instance, when you say the track has shifted one way or the other, reference your location and whether your talking LF or inland or as it relates to your backyard. A few more words could go a long way and if you want to argue take it to banter.
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Gotcha- but I don't think no one was arguing. Just a slight disagreement or confusion. That's all. But I see your point and apply it to my next post. Let's get our mind ready for this storm.
 
GSP calling for widespread 4-8”, sustained winds around 20-30mph with guts over 50mph even back my way. Getting worried about power loss over this way
 
SnowwxAtl said:
View attachment 151592

Slight east trajectory on the 5a advisory than the 11p. I wouldn't be shocked another shift to the east on the next or 5p advisory today.
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I see what you’re saying about the inland track and you’re correct. The landfall location though has been pretty much the same location all 4 advisories so far
 
Metwannabe said:
I don't understand the arguing. Sometimes just a little more context in a post would clear things up. For instance, when you say the track has shifted one way or the other, reference your location and whether your talking LF or inland or as it relates to your backyard. A few more words could go a long way and if you want to argue take it to banter.
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Also one other thing about this, you can always go to the NHC graphic archives and see for yourself how the cone has or has not shifted over the life of the system.

 
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