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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

Gefs is much faster than the gfs op
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Harvey appears to be undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, characterized by concentric eyewalls with a secondary moat encapsulating the older/inner eyewall. Progressively over time if conditions warrant, the secondary moat contracts and chokes off the inner eyewall, however it's difficult to determine how long this EWRC will take with Harvey. There are also hints of this on satellite imagery as cloud tops immediately in/around the center have warmed ever so slightly the past several frames (as of 2am EDT)... These eyewall replacement cycles effectively tend to significantly slow intensification and/or slightly weaken a mature tropical cyclone like Harvey and that's liable to happen here
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Pressure 958 MB as of right now, first pass of NOAA recon ! Wow! Cat 3 imminent , probably already, per Cantore! Winds playing catch up from pressure drop!
 
9766CB34-3973-4956-9387-6FC2C963A08A.png Dang!! I think here come maybe the final push for it to get as strong as it can
 
Sheash at the structure. That massive broad CDO is not what you want to see at this point and to be honest Ive never seen it this close to landfall.

Not calling for it, but don't be surprised if this makes a run at Cat 5. If this was away from land I'd bet it would happen. This close I don't know.
 
110 MPH 952 MB at 7 AM advisory
Looks like it will be slowing down and could stall right on the coast. Wow!
 
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The QPF these models are spitting out is just insane there aren't enough adjectives to describe the type of rainfall they are about to receive, this might be a double whammy like I don't recall ever seeing

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These are just off the surface but the wind is cranking in the NW quadrant of the eye
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ForsythSnow said:
Here we go again... that is a deeper drop. Each pass we seem to be getting larger drops. Last night it was only 1 mb at a time, now it is 5 to 8.

EDIT: recon has 951mb actually. Still a drop.
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Watched a few minutes of TWC this morning and at that time Cantore said pressure had dropped 17 mb since they had come on the air.... I think it was 958 then so yeah wow!
 
Storm5 said:
Shifted a little west that run . But it still has the second landfall . Image from wxbell
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GFS has that second landfall as well.... going to be interesting to see just when the stall/loop/etc happens, this thing may never get fully on land man all indications point to Harvey being memorable!
 
The way the Texas coast is shaped and the friction from the land is gonna add to the strength of Harvey right before landfall. It will have no trouble with winds responding /matching accordingly with its pressure right before landfall.

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metwannabe said:
GFS has that second landfall as well.... going to be interesting to see just when the stall/loop/etc happens, this thing may never get fully on land man all indications point to Harvey being memorable!
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Yeah, i bet it never completely makes landfall before merging back in gulf. I notice the gfs started caving with euro with the loop. The nam actually is a bit east
 
Man, that's one pretty looking Hurricane. I couldn't imagine getting 8-10 inches of rain in a couple days, let along between 20-30. Hope everyone got out of there or is prepared, and hope all the chasers stay safe.
 
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