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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Storm5
Member
The 3k NAM is horrible . 928mb this run no wonder the NAM gets trashed during tropical season
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The 3K gets trashed in winter time.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Actually, 913mb. Completely useless. The 12KM NAM is much more realistic in terms of strength still. And yes, the NAM gets trashed if it isn't severe weather season.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It keeps ticking south each run, so I would say no.
GFS does a better job at keeping dry air out of it's core.
Meh it's a convection allowing model and that feeds into itself and causes the ridiculous strength.
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Brent
Member
GFS heading to Mexico so far after landfalling near Baffin Bay
Not sure it will it's really buried the system southwest
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Storm5
Member
Gfs is flexing the western ridge so it looks like it's about to do the ole loop
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Harvey is so close to diving too far southwest into Mexico on this gfs run and dying over the Sierra Madre Occidental like Beulah (1967)...
Brent
Member
this run is gonna get buried in Mexico if it doesn't get moving the other way
Storm5
Member
Talk about the ole squeeze play a ridge west and a trough east
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Trough is trying to pull it back at 114
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks like Harvey will just escape dissipation. Moving east again. But by then it could be dissipated again, so part 3?
Edit: Nope. He's dead. Still moving SE.
Edit: Nope. He's dead. Still moving SE.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The subtropical ridge continues to get stronger north of Harvey after day 2, we are trending towards burial in northern Mexico. Still would produce horrific flooding over the Rio Grande Valley esp Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, etc
Storm5
Member
It's about to move back into the gulf 
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