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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey (1 Viewer)

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#12
Wow, things about to get fired up. Charlie's right, gfs will end up being right one day and i have this little feeling that gfs could be right. Not wish casting. We are about to reach our peak season. Just be alert and aware and ready.
 

Arcc

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#14
Wow, things about to get fired up. Charlie's right, gfs will end up being right one day and i have this little feeling that gfs could be right. Not wish casting. We are about to reach our peak season. Just be alert and aware and ready.
I have a feeling the XTRP model will absolutely nail this over the next five days.

All hail the XTRP model.
 

GaWx

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#20
Threatens NE US on the 12Z GFS. What protects the SE (offshore high too weak to bring it all the way into the SE US) allows it to recurve to just offshore of Cape Cod on 8/26 on the 12Z GFS (for the record).
 

Storm5

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#21
Looking at the 500 levels, I think this storm is going to hit land. There is no trough sweeping it away, so unfortunately we could see a big threat. All assuming it forms.
There is a huge opening for a stronger storm to stay offshore or become a fish as it will turn poleward with nothing to force it west .



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ForsythSnow

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#23
EPS much further south than the GEFS suite with 91L, hinting at a possible long tracked Caribbean Cruiser and/or interaction with the Greater Antilles...
View attachment 835
That map doesn't look good at all. I would put more stock into the EPS at this range than the GEFS. If this thing gets shredded like the rest before it even gets to the Antilles then it will end up like the others, but isn't the environment better for development now?
 
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#24
That map doesn't look good at all. I would put more stock into the EPS at this range than the GEFS. If this thing gets shredded like the rest before it even gets to the Antilles then it will end up like the others, but isn't the environment better for development now?
yeah the environment looks better than it did for 99L. 91L has a 1.5-2 week climatological advantage, passage of a strong(er) CCKW in the eastern Atlantic (which makes sense given the larger-scale MJO envelope has moved further east from the eastern Pacific to over and just beyond the tropical Atlantic), MJO juxtaposition is more conducive, and this system has a very large moisture envelope with little-no SAL to its north & west.
 
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#26
Last 4 runs of the european model valid for 12z August 13, including today's 12z initialization. No doubt the model is becoming more impressed with 91L and the monsoon trough over the eastern Atlantic with time, we'll see if this carries over into latter portions of this run or subsequent runs...
Unknown.gif
 
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#28
Oh man this Euro run is going nuts... 91L is well to the north & east of the Lesser Antilles, a broad low currently in the monsoon trough develops into a hurricane as it passes the antilles (hence nullifying the canonical John Hope Rule wrt the graveyard) and there's another system following hot on its heels...
ecmwf_mslpa_atltropics_7.png
 

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