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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

The trough digging into the central US will play a big role in digging this out the 18z gfs is weakest and farthest NE so it doesn't really dig the system out. The cmc and euro are similar with the trough but the cmc has a faster movement west under the ridge in the Rockies which tucks it away from any trough interaction. The euro is the perfect scenario to pick it up from northern Mexico and bring it back into the SE

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Someone please explain latest trends. I know Webb said it could go into mexico but right now the average is Texas and stalling then moving towards Lousiana right? Im confused as much as models.
 
Aaaand back into Texas again... By now, they are all underwater.
gfs_apcpn_scus_31.png
 
Im riding the euro on this one, Eps strongly agrees with it Op. Gfs has the ole loop but euro faster while gfs takes its sweet time drowing Texas.
 
To webbers point , the gefs supports the idea of it getting stuck underneath the ridge and dumped into northern Mexico . There were 12z gefs members that support that idea .

18z gfs
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12z gefs
0f1752ec530c719baeb4a73d4a86f316.png



Edit : looks further up the page and realizes the point has already been made. Maybe met had a point this am about reading previous pages ......

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This is where the gfs and euro diverge. The euro has a stronger trough and less of a west to east extension of the western ridge north of harvey
5c88411d0ef21db027ff0af0aaa2d034.jpg
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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_35.png
whether it redevelops or not, stormy days ahead for the southeast
 
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