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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

000
URNT15 KNHC 241646
AF309 1209A HARVEY HDOB 48 20170824
163700 2422N 09328W 8429 01332 9804 +207 +190 081031 037 041 003 03
163730 2423N 09327W 8430 01332 9807 +208 +189 082040 041 052 003 00
163800 2424N 09326W 8432 01334 9811 +206 +189 090048 053 059 003 00
163830 2425N 09325W 8429 01339 9821 +196 +194 097057 059 071 007 05
163900 2426N 09324W 8426 01349 9828 +194 +189 108065 068 072 002 00
163930 2427N 09323W 8434 01354 9849 +187 //// 115073 078 076 003 01
164000 2428N 09322W 8443 01352 9867 +176 //// 117080 083 077 005 05
164030 2429N 09321W 8425 01382 9872 +183 //// 122084 086 072 007 01
164100 2429N 09320W 8430 01389 9891 +182 +182 121083 088 070 009 03
164130 2430N 09319W 8423 01405 9911 +177 +177 124084 085 068 020 03
164200 2431N 09318W 8437 01404 9929 +173 +173 127084 085 /// /// 03
164230 2432N 09317W 8424 01428 9940 +172 +172 127080 083 059 013 00
164300 2433N 09316W 8425 01436 9954 +168 +168 129075 077 058 010 00
164330 2434N 09315W 8432 01438 9962 +165 //// 128072 075 056 009 01
164400 2435N 09314W 8435 01442 9963 +169 //// 128072 073 052 006 01
164430 2435N 09313W 8424 01461 9969 +169 //// 128071 073 050 006 01
164500 2436N 09312W 8428 01457 //// +170 //// 133066 070 050 002 01
164530 2437N 09310W 8434 01459 9977 +171 //// 131058 064 051 013 05
164600 2438N 09309W 8438 01457 9993 +165 +165 129066 066 052 014 00
164630 2439N 09308W 8425 01473 9999 +160 +160 131063 066 044 019 00
$$
;
Recon found 88 kt FL
 
Hurricane Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1200 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

...HARVEY STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE WITH 80-MPH WINDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Harvey has intensified to a hurricane, with maximum sustained
winds of 80 mph (130 km/h).

A Special Advisory will be issued by 1 PM CDT (1800 UTC) in lieu
of the intermediate advisory to update the intensity forecast.
 
my met friend in Brownsville just said Cat 4 easy

suddenly those doomy models look possible
 
New recon flight has reached Harvey and it appears the two will pas each other, so maybe they are swapping out and doing a constant recon, or is this just a different type of plane?
 
ForsythSnow said:
New recon flight has reached Harvey and it appears the two will pas each other, so maybe they are swapping out and doing a constant recon, or is this just a different type of plane?
Click to expand...
I think I saw Air Force is leaving and NWS Hurricane Hunters are entering. Could be wrong.
 
it's still going to pass over a piece of the loop current too

the loop current was made famous in 2005. Unless there's an EWRC or some last minute dry air from inland I don't see what would stop it
 
Looking at the previous advisories at 7AM CDT, Hurricane Harvey has dropped one millibar per hour on average through the newest advisory.

986 at 7AM & now we are at 981 at 12PM
 
Looking over the modeling, the RGEM(12z) and Euro(00z) have already busted on strength. At strongest points, I see the 12z suite have the following:

GFS 938mb
32KM NAM 962mb
12KM NAM: 959mb
3KM NAM: 873mb (WTF)

If we average the 12z NAM suite together, we come up with 931MB. Which isn't far off from the 12z GFS's forecast.... and that includes the ridiculous 3KM NAM's 873MB skewing it.
 
Storm5 said:
4,322 days ...... the streak is about to end


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
A major is a certainty at this point. On the current satellite there's a cluster of convection to the NE of the storm that looks like it's going to get fed back into the circulation throughout the day. When that happens, weeee!

MAX_WEB_TROP_ATL9_storm_info_1280x720.jpg

e4N16k
 
...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
 
Brent said:
...HARVEY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...
...PREPARATIONS ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES
Click to expand...
Wow!!
 
Here the Euro, already wrong about the strength. Lets see where he goes
 
000
WTNT44 KNHC 241748
TCDAT4

Hurricane Harvey Special Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
100 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1800Z 24.4N 93.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 24.9N 94.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 26.0N 95.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 27.3N 96.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 28.3N 97.0W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
72H 27/1200Z 29.0N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 28.5N 97.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 29/1200Z 28.5N 96.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

Full discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/241748.shtml?
 
Guests , take 30 seconds and register. Tomorrow we are turning on the live thread and possible locking the Harvey thread for just members . That decision will be made tomorrow as we see how site traffic is going


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Think about this:

We in the hobby/know woke up suprised this a.m. how well Harvey got his act together etc. But all those people who may watch weather once a day are just now all being alerted as Im sure the local news is in high gear now/today. But by tommorow morning 8 to 900 ishTropical storm force winds will be coming inland. So folks really will only have less than 24 hours to board up/evacuate get out of harms way. Lot of folks getting caught today with their guard down and really not enough time to make preperations for whats coming.
 
FWIW (not much) but the HRRR has been absolutely horrible with the pressure of Harvey today. May want to tuck that back in mind for potential Winter systems later on.
 
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