Brent
Member
GFS less tangled up and faster exiting Texas, also inland not over water
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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
AL/GA is really getting rocked by that heavy rainband
EDIT: Meanwhile, the Canadian is going in the complete opposite direction of the GFS. It's further south and west (stronger than previous run) making landfall in extreme S. TX.
EDIT: Meanwhile, the Canadian is going in the complete opposite direction of the GFS. It's further south and west (stronger than previous run) making landfall in extreme S. TX.
Brent
Member
CMC went south to Brownsville, UKMET still on Galveston
I feel like we have less model agreement now
CMC actually goes into Mexico now lmao... no east turn towards LA
I feel like we have less model agreement now
CMC actually goes into Mexico now lmao... no east turn towards LA
Brent
Member
A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey
is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Although thunderstorm
activity has increased over the northern portion of the system
tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure
area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while
the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf
of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late
Friday.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once
it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of
heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern
Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This
system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or
hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this
week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required
later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas,
and southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more information. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the
low this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Although thunderstorm
activity has increased over the northern portion of the system
tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure
area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while
the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf
of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late
Friday.
Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once
it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of
heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern
Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week. This
system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or
hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this
week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required
later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas,
and southwestern Louisiana. Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more information. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the
low this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
Brent
Member
Euro goes inland around Corpus, stalls almost immediately, then crawls back into the Gulf SW of Galveston
At 144 a full fledged hurricane is just offshore Galveston, much stronger than the initial landfall... 3 days after it...
this Euro solution would be about the most bizarre track I've ever seen
At 144 a full fledged hurricane is just offshore Galveston, much stronger than the initial landfall... 3 days after it...
this Euro solution would be about the most bizarre track I've ever seen
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Meanwhile on the 3km nam check out that pressure lmao
6z 3k NAM done lost it's freaking mind...
The 6z GFS tells us that Harvey loves us long time.
Landfall NW of Corpus Cristi and then crawls along the coast east. Large swath of 10"-15" totals from Texas through the SE.
Landfall NW of Corpus Cristi and then crawls along the coast east. Large swath of 10"-15" totals from Texas through the SE.
EPS actually somewhat supports that bizarre track... this one going to be interesting to track
Umm ok Tx getting NAM'd
Umm ok Tx getting NAM'd
Some of these solutions are bonkers. Cat 4-5 on the NAMs, a loop and double hit on the Euro or a long long afair with the GFS.
One way or another Harvey wants to be remembered.
Definitely seeing organization improving with Harvey.
Did the NAM (3km) just seriously freakin' bomb Harvey out to 897mb prior to reaching the TX coast? That's Katrina/Wilma territory. WTF?
Storm5
Member
Did the NAM (3km) just seriously freakin' bomb Harvey out to 897mb prior to reaching the TX coast? That's Katrina/Wilma territory. WTF?
Thankfully it's wrong
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The NAM has major convective feedback problems and is not a reliable model to use for TC forecasting, not to mention it makes Harvey's vortex unrealistically small during this period of rapid intensification. Harvey will probably have to contend with multiple low level centers for an appreciable period of time perhaps even within 24 hours of landfall (before it eventually tightens due to frictional convergence) and thus its large size should inhibit rapid intensification at least for the next few days until it gets close to the Texas and/or Louisiana coast.
Ya it makes you wonder, how strong could Harvey get. Either way, it’s gonna be very water loaded.
Probably back to life by 11 am... per NHC
Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system.
Satellite images, reconnaissance data and surface observations
indicate that the remmants of Harvey are close to redeveloping into
a tropical depression over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 150
miles west of Merida, Mexico. Advisories will likely be re-initiated
at 10 am CDT on this system.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
But just to look at...
I wonder sometimes if previous pages are read before posting..... anyway most intensity guidance suggest high end TS or low end Cane, but as we all know intensity forecast is still very much a work in progress. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
I literally fell out of my chair laughing when I saw that NAM post.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Air Force Reconnaissance Hurricane Hunters confirm Harvey has a closed, but broad circulation w/ MSLP ~ 1007mb. This is a large-very large storm and it's going to take its sweet time getting its act together because of it... Rapid intensification doesn't seem likely until this circulation sufficiently tightens, which may take a few days, if not until harvey nears the NW Gulf coast.
